Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Been kinda sorta out for a week. Anyone change their views on anything or learn something new lately?
The NY Times Daily podcast today is a good listen if you're interested in that. Donald McNeil, who basically predicted this whole mess, did an interview today with a lot of updates.
-Basically said it's becoming more obvious this is a vascular disease more than a respiratory disease.
-There's a belief that the Italian strain of this virus has mutated into a more transmissible version of the virus, and is crowding out the Chinese strain. The mutation makes the spikes on the virus more capable of sticking. That's still up for debate though. He hopes that will make it less lethal but the jury is out on that.
-Transmission appears way, way more likely indoors than outdoors. (Really not surprising)
-That said, he says opening schools in the fall may be possible. So far the results in other countries are showing that kids are not transmitting this virus at high levels to adults. Gave the example of Denmark and Finland not seeing spikes from opening schools. Part of this may be that when the virus shows up in kids it seems to show up as inflammation in the body, as opposed to respiratory, maybe that's helping.
Says we're still in the 2nd inning of the pandemic, and governors are starting to realize that the decisions you make today will see results a month down the line. [Reply]
(CNN)An antibody cocktail is now beginning late-stage clinical trials to evaluate the drug's ability to prevent and treat coronavirus infection.
The biotechnology company Regeneron announced the late-stage clinical trials of REGN-COV2, its investigational double antibody cocktail for the treatment and prevention of Covid-19, in a news release on Monday.
Specifically the release noted that a Phase 3 trial of the drug will assess its ability to prevent coronavirus infection among uninfected people who have had close contact to an infected person, such as a patient's housemate. The Phase 3 prevention trial is happening at around 100 sites and expected to include 2,000 patients across the United States, according to Regeneron.
The drug also has moved into the Phase 2/3 portion of two trials testing its ability to treat hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients with Covid-19, according to Regeneron. These trials will involve 1,850 hospitalized patients and 1,050 non-hospitalized patients, and they are expected to be conducted at 150 sites in the United States, Brazil, Mexico and Chile. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
You left this off for some reason:
Professor Ferguson: 'First of all, they did not use our model. They developed a model of their own. We had no role in parameterising it. Generally, the key aspect of modelling is how well you parameterise it against the available data. But to be absolutely clear they did not use our model, they didn’t adapt our model.'
I believe that the task force used the IC model and others, because they used 1 to 2.2 million dead without mitigation. And, again, we don't know how accurate that would have been, because we did lockdown and mitigated.
Do you acknowledge that the task force also estimated between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths with mitigation efforts?
Yes, Ferguson is of course going to defend his failed model.
You know how he did it for Sweden?! He claims the social distancing and hamdwashing created 90% mitigation!
Therefore, to save all these lives there was no need to close down the economy, schools, and our lives when we could have gotten 90% of the benefits from voluntary social distancing.
Fergusons attempts only proves how silly the lockdowns were. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Yes, Ferguson is of course going to defend his failed model.
You know how he did it for Sweden?! He claims the social distancing and hamdwashing created 90% mitigation!
Therefore, to save all these lives there was no need to close down the economy, schools, and our lives when we could have gotten 90% of the benefits from voluntary social distancing.
Fergusons attempts only proves how silly the lockdowns were.
His model doesn't mention Sweden. Just the UK and us.
Again:
Do you acknowledge that the task force also estimated between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths with mitigation efforts? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
You left this off for some reason:
Professor Ferguson: 'First of all, they did not use our model. They developed a model of their own. We had no role in parameterising it. Generally, the key aspect of modelling is how well you parameterise it against the available data. But to be absolutely clear they did not use our model, they didn’t adapt our model.'
I believe that the task force used the IC model and others, because they used 1 to 2.2 million dead without mitigation. And, again, we don't know how accurate that would have been, because we did lockdown and mitigated.
Do you acknowledge that the task force also estimated between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths with mitigation efforts?
Trouble is, the Uppsala team say they very much did use an adaptation of Ferguson’s work. Their paper states: 'We employed an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson et al…'
Maybe they didn’t employ Ferguson himself to ‘parameterise’ it, but then Ferguson ought to be reminded of one of the basic principles of all scientific work: that it must be possible for other scientists to reproduce your results. You shouldn’t need the original scientists to come and tweak its mathematical model for you.
IHME model also predicted 90,000 dead in Sweden by now..also wrong. And I know NYS is using IHME model in their current forecasting still to create policy right here in the US.
Do you acknowledge that the task force also estimated between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths with mitigation efforts?
Sure, that's his excuse. See? My model was correct because you did so well!
That's why Sweden proves your emperor has no clothes.
Another issue with the Doomer crowd..
If Imperial model was correct and we only have 100,00+ deaths..nowhere close to 2 million, where is the media reporting on what a spectacular success the US has been? [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic: Trouble is, the Uppsala team say they very much did use an adaptation of Ferguson’s work. Their paper states: 'We employed an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson et al…'
Maybe they didn’t employ Ferguson himself to ‘parameterise’ it, but then Ferguson ought to be reminded of one of the basic principles of all scientific work: that it must be possible for other scientists to reproduce your results. You shouldn’t need the original scientists to come and tweak its mathematical model for you.
IHME model also predicted 90,000 dead in Sweden by now..also wrong. And I know NYS is using IHME model in their current forecasting still to create policy right here in the US.
Do you acknowledge that the task force also estimated between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths with mitigation efforts?
Sure, that's his excuse. See? My model was correct because you did so well!
That's why Sweden proves your emperor has no clothes.
Another issue with the Doomer crowd..
If Imperial model was correct and we only have 100,00+ deaths..nowhere close to 2 million, where is the media reporting on what a spectacular success the US has been?
I don't know if the IHME model showed that, or not.
It's not an excuse by anyone. I can show you that estimate from mid-March. And it's been proven to be accurate, thankfully on the low-side. That's not disputable.
As you've been shown, the per capita death rate in Sweden is much higher than ours. They simply aren't a good champion.
As stated, the 1 to 2 million estimated was based on deaths with NO mitigation. We did mitigate, so we will never know if it was accurate or not.
If your agenda is that we never should have locked down and mitigated, have at it. Thankfully, you're in the very small minority. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
I don't know if the IHME model showed that, or not.
It's not an excuse by anyone. I can show you that estimate from mid-March. And it's been proven to be accurate, thankfully on the low-side. That's not disputable.
As you've been shown, the per capita death rate in Sweden is much higher than ours. They simply aren't a good champion.
As stated, the 1 to 2 million estimated was based on deaths with NO mitigation. We did mitigate, so we will never know if it was accurate or not.
If your agenda is that we never should have locked down and mitigated, have at it. Thankfully, you're in the very small minority.
Sure, keep following absolutely failed forecasting. If your model says 90,000 people should be dead if they don't lockdown and then they don't lockdown and have EVEN less deaths than your best case scenario what is your problem then?
They said best case Sweden does a lockdown and only 40,000 dead by now. Instead they did much better.
They simply aren't a good champion.
Sure, but the countries with the greatest deaths per population all locked down...Also, when are we going to start counting the people killed by lockdown?
Lockdowns work if you do them BEFORE the virus gets there. If you already have widespread Corona they are pointless. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Sure, keep following absolutely failed forecasting. If your model says 90,000 people should be dead if they don't lockdown and then they don't lockdown and have EVEN less deaths than your best case scenario what is your problem then?
They said best case Sweden does a lockdown and only 40,000 dead by now. Instead they did much better.
They simply aren't a good champion.
Sure, but the countries with the greatest deaths per population all locked down...Also, when are we going to start counting the people killed by lockdown?
Lockdowns work if you do them BEFORE the virus gets there. If you already have widespread Corona they are pointless.
Methinks someone is ignoring the deaths in Norway and Finland for convenience. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Sure, keep following absolutely failed forecasting. If your model says 90,000 people should be dead if they don't lockdown and then they don't lockdown and have EVEN less deaths than your best case scenario what is your problem then?
They said best case Sweden does a lockdown and only 40,000 dead by now. Instead they did much better.
They simply aren't a good champion.
Sure, but the countries with the greatest deaths per population all locked down...Also, when are we going to start counting the people killed by lockdown?
Lockdowns work if you do them BEFORE the virus gets there. If you already have widespread Corona they are pointless.
Again, the task force estimated 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, and that was with mitigation efforts. We have 132,000 deaths right now. So, how can you call that failed?
If you are just going to ignore things because of your agenda, you aren't a reasonable person. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Again, the task force estimated 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, and that was with mitigation efforts. We have 132,000 deaths right now. So, how can you call that failed?
If you are just going to ignore things because of your agenda, you aren't a reasonable person.
Originally Posted by Donger:
Again, the task force estimated 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, and that was with mitigation efforts. We have 132,000 deaths right now. So, how can you call that failed?
If you are just going to ignore things because of your agenda, you aren't a reasonable person.
