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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Monticore 09:11 PM 03-17-2020
Giving people labels just because they have a different opinion or handle situations different than you are in the hope they change their mind and agree with you isn’t very productive. Just need to spend a few minutes in DC to figure that out.
[Reply]
stumppy 09:11 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
I view that as a good thing (under the circumstances).

You can't properly fight what you can't understand.

There are a number of serious virologists who have said that people have probably been walking around with this without their knowledge for weeks - possibly months. Including, by the way, right here in the US.

And those experts have actually been saying that since late February.

FAX
Could be. When it comes to the data here there's not much we can do but wait and see.
[Reply]
FAX 09:11 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Mr. Fax,

I'd typically love to dive into this information but my brain is overloaded and I'm tired.

Can you give a brief rundown of the article?
Basically, they've developed sophisticated computer models that allow them to estimate the extent and spread of the contagion in China both prior to and after the "outbreak". Based on that research, they believe that vastly more people contract the virus than was previously known.

And the vast majority of those are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.

Essentially, the Chinese didn't know what they were dealing with until the number of cases involving health-compromised patients went critical.

Then there are a bunch of algorithms and charts and stuff that basically describe how ****ed up the Chinese handled this from the get-go.

Oh ... and they said this: [Control] measures along with changes in medical care-seeking behavior due to increased awareness of the virus and increased personal protective behavior (e.g., wearing of facemasks, social distancing, self-isolation when sick), likely altered the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak after 23 January. (In other words, things improved after that.)

Take care of yourself, Mr. TLO. All will be well.

FAX
[Reply]
Stanley Nickels 09:13 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Mr. Fax,

I'd typically love to dive into this information but my brain is overloaded and I'm tired.

Can you give a brief rundown of the article?
Mathematical (Bayesian) model estimates that 86% of ALL Covid cases were unreported/undiagnosed prior to a travel ban/quarantine instituted in Wuhan late January. The model anticipates that the asymptomatic people were "less contagious" but still likely account for 70+% of all transmitted cases after that ban. That's from a cursory read-through. Important to note that this is a *probability* from a mathematical model, not actual data... But it's pretty strong given a tight confidence interval range.
[Reply]
tk13 09:13 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
I view that as a good thing (under the circumstances).

You can't properly fight what you can't understand.

There are a number of serious virologists who have said that people have probably been walking around with this without their knowledge for weeks - possibly months. Including, by the way, right here in the US.

And those experts have actually been saying that since late February.

FAX
It's still the case. That's literally what people in the know are still complaining about. We haven't been testing at a high level at all and we still aren't. They will never contain it unless the government gets serious about it.

West Virginia was the final state to finally have a case, announced today. They've done like 140 tests. Total. We're finally starting to ramp up testing in this country but it's already too late. That's the problem. You're going to have a whole bunch of mild and asymptomatic people out there spreading this around like wildfire.
[Reply]
TLO 09:13 PM 03-17-2020
Deaths in Italy

I can't embed on my phone.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Covid19No...09907879006209
[Reply]
BIG_DADDY 09:14 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by stumppy:
Could be. When it comes to the data here there's not much we can do but wait and see.
Your best post ever.
[Reply]
FloridaMan88 09:15 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Why do you insist on calling it hysteria/panic instead of concern , why does everything have to be at the extreme of the spectrum.
When the entire economy is destroyed to supposedly combat a virus that will only infect a small % of Americans, and will only seriously sicken or kill an even smaller %, that is the ultimate definition of “extreme”.
[Reply]
Dartgod 09:15 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
Giving people labels just because they have a different opinion or handle situations different than you are in the hope they change their mind and agree with you isn’t very productive. Just need to spend a few minutes in DC to figure that out.
It's the way of ChiefsPlanet. Always has been, always will.

That said, I'd like to see this thread maintain a higher level of civility than the norm. There is a lot of good, important information in this thread and I'd rather not see it get lost in the bickering.
[Reply]
TLO 09:15 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
Basically, they've developed sophisticated computer models that allow them to estimate the extent and spread of the contagion in China both prior to and after the "outbreak". Based on that research, they believe that vastly more people contract the virus than was previously known.

And the vast majority of those are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.

Essentially, the Chinese didn't know what they were dealing with until the number of cases involving health-compromised patients went critical.

Then there are a bunch of algorithms and charts and stuff that basically describe how ****ed up the Chinese handled this from the get-go.

Oh ... and they said this: [Control] measures along with changes in medical care-seeking behavior due to increased awareness of the virus and increased personal protective behavior (e.g., wearing of facemasks, social distancing, self-isolation when sick), likely altered the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak after 23 January. (In other words, things improved after that.)

Take care of yourself, Mr. TLO. All will be well.

FAX
Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels:
Mathematical (Bayesian) model estimates that 86% of ALL Covid cases were unreported/undiagnosed prior to a travel ban/quarantine instituted in Wuhan late January. The model anticipates that the asymptomatic people were "less contagious" but still likely account for 70+% of all transmitted cases after that ban. That's from a cursory read-through. Important to note that this is a *probability* from a mathematical model, not actual data... But it's pretty strong given a tight confidence interval range.
Thank you both.
[Reply]
SupDock 09:15 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
I view that as a good thing (under the circumstances).

You can't properly fight what you can't understand.

There are a number of serious virologists who have said that people have probably been walking around with this without their knowledge for weeks - possibly months. Including, by the way, right here in the US.

And those experts have actually been saying that since late February.

FAX
I have been looking for these articles. To clarify, are you talking about
community spread prior to January 20th in the USA?
[Reply]
BIG_DADDY 09:15 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
You absolutely have. I'm glad you're hear sharing information with us.
He is not helping your health. MOF he is probably making it worse. Just saying.
[Reply]
Monticore 09:17 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
It's the way of ChiefsPlanet. Always has been, always will.

That said, I'd like to see this thread maintain a higher level of civility than the norm. There is a lot of good, important information in this thread and I'd rather not see it get lost in the bickering.
Will do.
[Reply]
Stanley Nickels 09:17 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by FAX:
In other words (my words and interpretation), in Wuhan, probably 10 million people had the virus and didn't know it.
Incredibly wrong and irresponsible.

Edit: For clarification, from the article: "Using the best-fitting model (Table 1 and Fig. 1), we estimated 13,118 (95% CI: 2,974–23,435) total new COVID-19 infections (documented and undocumented combined) during 10–23 January in Wuhan city. Further, 86.2% (95% CI: 81.5%–89.8%) of all infections were infected from undocumented cases. Nationwide, the total number of infections during 10–23 January was 16,829 (95% CI: 3,797–30,271) with 86.2% (95% CI: 81.6%–89.8%) infected by undocumented cases."

Those numbers form the basis for this Bayesian simulation. Nothing even close to 100,000, let alone ten million. We may ultimately find out that there is some incredibly high R0 for this virus and it just lies dormant in (literally) 99.9% of all who contract it (no data support this), but that is NOT what the cited article suggests.
[Reply]
stumppy 09:17 PM 03-17-2020
Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY:
Your best post ever.
Just call me Capt. Obvious.
[Reply]
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