Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
We have way more than enough data to determine trends. You are absolutely right that there are a lot of variables. The overall numbers are sufficient to account for most of what you’re pointing out.
I used the math in a post yesterday to come to a daily number of 216 yesterday. It was 206. Tomorrow the math says 341. I guess we’ll see.
Again, I hope you’re the one who’s right!
I hope so too. I think we are going to continue seeing an increase in cases but a decrease in deaths per case.
I also think For every person tested positive there are probably 2-3 walking around with little or no symptoms and will never be tested if not more.
The whole battle right now aside from those at risk for death, is preventing a mass run on the hospitals. New York is probing to be at bit of an anomaly compared to most of the rest of the country and I think we can explain why.
And, as cruel as it sounds, as I stated before, there is a certain number of people who are at higher risk for death. If they unfortunately die that number decreases so that drastically changes the math.
From what I have heard from the leaders at our health system is we just have to keep it manageable. Meaning we have to make sure we have beds, ventilators, PPE, etc.
This virus is not going to go away. We just have to bide our time until we are in a better position to deal with it via vaccines, etc. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
I wake up in the morning, check the news - figure we're doomed. Go to my office to try and determine the best way to keep my employees and clients safe. Worry about them for a while.
Check the news a little later - maybe see something promising. Feel a little better.
Check the news later and find something horrifying. Anxiety into a tailspin.
Feel okay at bedtime after my ambien - sleep well, but with odd coronavirus dreams.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I hope so too. I think we are going to continue seeing an increase in cases but a decrease in deaths per case.
I also think For every person tested positive there are probably 2-3 walking around with little or no symptoms and will never be tested if not more.
The whole battle right now aside from those at risk for death, is preventing a mass run on the hospitals. New York is probing to be at bit of an anomaly compared to most of the rest of the country and I think we can explain why.
And, as cruel as it sounds, as I stated before, there is a certain number of people who are at higher risk for death. If they unfortunately die that number decreases so that drastically changes the math.
From what I have heard from the leaders at our health system is we just have to keep it manageable. Meaning we have to make sure we have beds, ventilators, PPE, etc.
This virus is not going to go away. We just have to bide our time until we are in a better position to deal with it via vaccines, etc.
Completely agree with you that there could be 100 people walking around for everyone that is reported as infected (that’s why I was making that distinction). That’s not the number to look at. You also are probably correct that over time the actual death rate in reported numbers will go down — EXCEPT if you max out the health care system. Then the 12.2% death rate doubles.
That’s why we have to slow the spread to reduce the cases and, as a consequence, reduce the death percentage that is applied to those numbers from a week ago.
There’s no rocket science coming from my side. But the math is not accruing to our favor. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
And meanwhile there were five pediatric deaths from the seasonal flu during the most recent week of reporting (week ending on March 14th).
That is five pediatric deaths in one week, 149 pediatric deaths since October... all from the seasonal flu.
Yet no panic-inducing headlines from the media or on Twitter.
How is that a panic-inducing headline? One of the youngest CoronaVirus victims died today of course they are going to report it [Reply]
Originally Posted by LoneWolf:
How you have not jumped off a building or swallowed a bullet by now is beyond me. You are the most consistently negative person on every subject I have ever encountered.
Yea, no shit. And then applied to modern culture by insecure losers as some sort of slur towards those who are not insecure and therefore don't give a shit. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Go try to find a similar tweet bringing attention to the five pediatric deaths from the seasonal flu two weeks ago.
Five deaths in one week from the seasonal flu and no mention on Twitter or in the media.
Well last time I checked the world isn't on virtual lockdown because of the seasonal flu. I get what you are trying to say but that's not what I would call a panic-inducing headline.
If anyone panics now because someone young died due to this terrible virus they are an idiot. [Reply]
