You're a bunch of superstitious children. Enjoy the Lamar Hunt trophy game from Arrowhead Stadium 2 weeks from today. Their Luck ran out. Our time is now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Bruh F was last year it's the Hyvee gate this year big boy. I've been taking boxing classes so I can really throw some blows. Look for me I'll be wearing a Leonard Pope jersey.
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Bruh F was last year it's the Hyvee gate this year big boy. I've been taking boxing classes so I can really throw some blows. Look for me I'll be wearing a Leonard Pope jersey.
Cool, I’ll be wearing my Ted Popson jersey and my Who Farted? hat. Let’s get it on!! [Reply]
Some VERY interesting stats about this vaunted Colts OL:
Only top 15 defenses in sacks that they’ve faced are Washington (7th), and Houston twice (14th). In those three games, they gave up 40% of the sacks they surrendered in all of 2018. They lost every game where Luck was sacked more than once. [Reply]
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
Some VERY interesting stats about this vaulted Colts OL:
Only top 16 defenses in sacks that they’ve faced are Washington (7th), and Houston twice (14th). In those three games, they gave up 40% of the sacks they surrendered in all of 2018. They lost every game where Luck was sacked more than once.
The more you dig in, the more you realize how much of a paper tiger these guys really are.
If you went strictly off of what the talking heads are saying though, the Chiefs are lucky to be on the same field as Indy. [Reply]
You have to be more constructive with your feedback! The Chiefs' rush defense is an abject disaster. Kansas City is last in the league in rush defense DVOA, 31st in yards per carry allowed, last in average yards after first contact, and last in first down percentage. The return of Eric Berry should theoretically improve this, but the star safety played only a game and a half before struggling with heel pain, which caused Berry to sit out the Week 17 win over the Raiders. Berry's only full game came against the Seahawks in Week 16, when Seattle ran the ball 43 times for 210 yards and two touchdowns.
As a pass defense, though, the Chiefs are better than you think. The raw stats aren't pretty -- they have allowed 4,374 passing yards, second in the league behind the Bengals -- but Kansas City ranks 12th in the league in pass defense DVOA, ahead of more-heralded defenses like the Cowboys, who rank 16th.
Their raw numbers look bad because Kansas City has been way ahead of its opponents for a huge chunk of 2018. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Chiefs have thrown 230 passes on drives that began with their teams possessing no more than a 5 percent chance of winning. No other team in the league faced 200 such attempts this season. This is essentially garbage time, and in meaningless situations, the Chiefs really shouldn't care about what their pass defense is doing. They have racked up eight interceptions in those spots, which inflates their total some, but their goal in those moments is really just to burn clock.
What has really driven the Chiefs to competency against the pass is a ferocious pass rush. To put their production in context, consider that the Bears sacked opposing quarterbacks 7.3 percent of the time and pressured those same passers on 30.0 percent of their dropbacks during the regular season. Bob Sutton's defense took down opposing signal-callers on 7.4 percent of their pass plays and pressured them 31.1 percent of the time. Kansas City also has done this with the league's ninth-lowest blitz rate, so it is getting home without sending extra rushers.
The pass rush could end up deciding this weekend's game against the Colts, given that Andrew Luck has been taking home a clean uniform a good amount of the time during their hot stretch. The Colts haven't allowed a rusher to rack up more than one sack in a game against them since Week 4, but the Chiefs have a special duo in Dee Ford and Chris Jones. Pro Football Reference has quarterback knockdown data going back through 2006, and the only team over that time frame with two players who each have 12.5 sacks and 25 knockdowns is this year's Chiefs. [Reply]
The myth: The Colts aren't ready to compete at this level.
If the Colts had lost 35-0 to the Texans on Saturday, nobody would have had a critical word to say. Indy shouldn't be here. It is one year removed from a 4-12 season, and if you want to chalk that up to Andrew Luck being absent, it was a middling 8-8 team in a bad division over the previous two campaigns. The Colts were a laughingstock when Josh McDaniels dumped them last January and then again when Frank Reich went for it on fourth down in overtime and passed up a likely tie against the Texans in Week 4. On Oct. 14, the Colts lost to the Jets and fell to 1-5.
From that point forward, all of the following things are true:
The Colts are 10-1, including a 21-7 victory over the Texans in the wild-card game.
Luck has posted the league's best QBR (80.6).
The Colts are third in points per drive (2.6) and in series success rate (76.9 percent).
The Indy defense is second in points allowed per drive (1.5) and third in touchdown drive percentage (17.1 percent).
Indianapolis is the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive (fourth) and defensive (third) win expectancy.
The Colts have the best point margin (plus-131 points) and average point margin (plus-11.9 points per game) in the league.
The latter stat suggests that the Colts have a reasonable claim to be considered the best team in football since Week 7. I won't pretend that their schedule has been the toughest, but they did shut out a Cowboys team that has otherwise gone 8-0 over its past nine games and stomped the Titans by 44 points across two different victories. They've beaten the Texans in Houston twice in the past month, a place where J.J. Watt & Co. were otherwise 6-1 in 2018.
The Colts have weaknesses, but there are elements of this team that are absolutely for real. Luck is playing at a high level, picking teams apart again and again on third down. Indy drove its first-half success on Saturday by going 6-for-6 in the first half on third downs. The offensive line is absolutely for real, especially with Pro Bowl-caliber center Ryan Kelly back in the fold for the playoff win. Including Saturday's game, the Colts are averaging 4.6 yards per carry and turning 25.6 percent of their runs into first downs or touchdowns with Kelly on the field. Those numbers fall to 3.6 yards and 19.8 percent, respectively, with Kelly sidelined.
Can the Colts beat the Chiefs? They'll need to catch a break, but it's not out of the question. They have the running game to take advantage of the league's weakest run defense by DVOA, and their offensive line should be able to hold up against a devastating Chiefs pass rush. On paper, Indy doesn't have anyone capable of covering Tyreek Hill, but the only 100-yard games they've allowed since Week 7 are to Sterling Shepard and Keke Coutee. The Colts have been an upper-echelon team for two-and-a-half months now. They deserve to be taken seriously. [Reply]
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
Some VERY interesting stats about this vaunted Colts OL:
Only top 15 defenses in sacks that they’ve faced are Washington (7th), and Houston twice (14th). In those three games, they gave up 40% of the sacks they surrendered in all of 2018. They lost every game where Luck was sacked more than once.
For comparison, the KC Chiefs offense faced the following defenses with their total sack ranking to the right.
And of course the Chargers twice who present a darn good rush that got better when Bosa returned.
Basically, the stats tell me that there is a legitimate argument to be made that KCs OL is every bit as good in pass protection as Indianapolis. KC allowed 26 sacks (5th) to Indianapolis’ 18 sacks (1st) with a far more difficult schedule. [Reply]
