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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>*** 2022 Mock Draft Megathread ***
duncan_idaho 12:45 PM 11-23-2021
Got a mock? Pop it in this thread. Include a picture if you want. Explain your reasoning if you want. Talk about your crushes... if you want.

See a good "pro" mock? Link it up in here and I'll add it to the OP.

Duncan's latest mock

Site
The Draft Network This mock seems to be the most accurate site right now, so I go with this one. I don't pay for it, so no trades here. The plan is for this to be my last mock. I'm going to do it differently, though. I'm running 3 scenarios, and eschewing the 7th round picks, which I would use on a big swings on athleticism and potential. Lotto tickets. James Houston IV is one of them. Note: I used PFF to simulate the trade action, then manually backed up in the 2 "trade" drafts to make selections. Laborious, but gives you best of both worlds, IMO. I think PFF's trade tool is the best, but its board is whack.

Draft slot: 29

Scenario 1: The Chiefs sit pat with their picks and don't make any moves at all. Seems the least likely, but hey...
1.29 | George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue.
1.30 | Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota.
2.50 | George Pickens, WR, Georgia.
2.62 | Travis Jones, DT, UConn.
3.94 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State.
3.103(Comp for Poles) | Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State.
4.121 | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati.
4.135 | Velus Jones, Jr., Tennessee

Scenario 1 Debrief:
So, sitting and waiting to see what comes to me was pretty successful here. The Chiefs FLOOD the defensive line with reinforcements, including at least 1 ready-made starter and two guys who should - at minimum - be in 50/50 rotations at their spots by year end. The Chiefs still get a big outside WR with tantalizing potential. They add some crazy athletic small-school guys, and a mid-round corner who just fits in the system, and a dynamo return man who might be more at WR.

This looks pretty good. Though I have a hard time believing Karlaftis just falls to 29...

Scenario 2: The Chiefs get aggressive and trade up. But for what? In this case, let's go wide receiver. In this run, Kansas City trades picks 29, 62, and a 2023 3rd to Houston for pick 13 and a 2023 4th, because they ARE as obsessed with a WR as people expect and are aggressive to go get him when the board falls right. They then trade BACK from 30 to 35 with the Jets, also including pick 94 in order to get 69 back. Then, last but not least, KC gets aggressive one more time and moves 103 and 121 for 85 from New England, leaving the Chiefs with 6 picks in the first four rounds.
1.13 | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama.
2.35 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State.
2.50 | Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor.
3.69 | Zachary Carter, DT, Florida.
3.85 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
4.135 | Jaylen Watson, CB, Washington State

Scenario 2 Debrief:
I'm not saying KC should do this or even that I think they will (more on that in a few minutes). I'm just saying, man, what will it look like if the Chiefs get aggressive a few times AND are doing the big move for a WR? In this scenario, KC obviously believes Williams is a game-changer at the NFL level and is taking a small 2022 hit to make 2023+ better. The defensive line still gets reinforced, but the reinforcements are all a shade worse than the sit-pat draft option. If you like Kingsley Enagbare or Josh PAscal more than Thomas, I get it and wouldn't quibble at one of those guys instead. Logan Hall, too. Pitre is such a screaming perfect fit for KC's D. Carter is a great physical talent you can dream about coaching up. Williams' utility is known and gives them a true RE option to pair against their higher-drafted bigger guy. Watson is a developmental corner.

I don't love it. I think Pitre makes the secondary a lot better and makes it easier to move on from Thornhill after 22. They have improved the defensive rotation, though one of the DEs would need to outperform expectations in Year 1 to get it to the same level as Scenario 1. In all, giving up the 2 extra selections in the top 4 rounds hurts the depth you can build, but I think it's more like what KC will do.

Scenario 3: Same movements as #2
1.13 | Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State.
2.35 | Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State.
2.50 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
3.69 | Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati.
3.85 | Martin Emerson, CB, Miss. State.
4.135 | Braxton Jones, T, Southern Utah

Scenario 3 Debrief:
This is the type of situation where I see KC paying the price to move up... if Johnson falls this far, I'd be shocked if KC isn't aggressively moving up. With this run, I take a risky but high upside WR in Watson (but you could sub in Pickens or Jahan Dotson or Tolbert or Metchie or Skyy Moore or really any of those tier 2 guys here if you prefer). The secondary reinforcements aren't flashy but are good fits.

In this one, I think the plan has to become adding either another safety or corner in free agency before the season. Ideally, it's someone who can handle the slot and let Sneed thriver on the outside. The DL gets a major boost and some potential star power in Johnson and Williams, and the OL gets another T option and potential long-term starter to develop.

Having completed the exercise and looking at the scenariors, I like the first one the most. But it really does come down to how the board breaks.

Older mocks
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[Reply]
The Franchise 01:18 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
If they play this draft board right, we're going to load up.
No way man. The smart move is to trade 2-3 three of our picks to move up in the top 15 for a WR with a torn ACL.
[Reply]
BossChief 01:51 PM 03-28-2022
I’ll keep saying it (and the way Veach got the extra 4ths and 6th runs parallel with my initial reaction to his combine presser) but I think we stay put with one of the firsts and trade down with the other…there’s a decent chance we trade down with both. Lions, Seattle and a couple others would love to have their new QB have a 5th year option.

I think Veach will do everything he can to get 2-3 more picks in rounds 3-5.

Only having 22 players under contract for 2023 is s huge factor and a lot of the guys available in those rounds will have “a full round premium” associated with their perceived value to well prepared front offices like ours. This is the year more prospects are coming out after Covid stuff kinda threw s monkey wrench into their plans last year.
[Reply]
The Franchise 01:55 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
I’ll keep saying it (and the way Veach got the extra 4ths and 6th runs parallel with my initial reaction to his combine presser) but I think we stay put with one of the firsts and trade down with the other…there’s a decent chance we trade down with both. Lions, Seattle and a couple others would love to have their new QB have a 5th year option.

I think Veach will do everything he can to get 2-3 more picks in rounds 3-5.

Only having 22 players under contract for 2023 is s huge factor and a lot of the guys available in those rounds will have “a full round premium” associated with their perceived value to well prepared front offices like ours. This is the year more prospects are coming out after Covid stuff kinda threw s monkey wrench into their plans last year.
The Lions have the #32 pick. They can stay where they're at to grab a QB.
[Reply]
htismaqe 01:58 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
The Lions have the #32 pick. They can stay where they're at to grab a QB.
Potentially. There's also a chance that 2 of the guys go earlier than expected and then everybody knows they need to leapfrog the Lions to get that 3rd one.
[Reply]
The Franchise 02:00 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Potentially. There's also a chance that 2 of the guys go earlier than expected and then everybody knows they need to leapfrog the Lions to get that 3rd one.
While true....it's nothing that anyone can bank on now. For all we know...the top 3 QBs go before pick 20 and the Lions stay put at 32 because no one is trying to move up.

That's why I try not to trade down in these mock drafts. Some of the trades offered are dumb and not really realistic.
[Reply]
htismaqe 02:08 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
While true....it's nothing that anyone can bank on now. For all we know...the top 3 QBs go before pick 20 and the Lions stay put at 32 because no one is trying to move up.

That's why I try not to trade down in these mock drafts. Some of the trades offered are dumb and not really realistic.
For sure.
[Reply]
BossChief 02:09 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
While true....it's nothing that anyone can bank on now. For all we know...the top 3 QBs go before pick 20 and the Lions stay put at 32 because no one is trying to move up.

That's why I try not to trade down in these mock drafts. Some of the trades offered are dumb and not really realistic.
If 3 QBs are taken in the top 20, the value will be to select the prospect that got pushed down rather than trading down.
[Reply]
The Franchise 02:09 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
I’ll keep saying it (and the way Veach got the extra 4ths and 6th runs parallel with my initial reaction to his combine presser) but I think we stay put with one of the firsts and trade down with the other…there’s a decent chance we trade down with both. Lions, Seattle and a couple others would love to have their new QB have a 5th year option.

I think Veach will do everything he can to get 2-3 more picks in rounds 3-5.

Only having 22 players under contract for 2023 is s huge factor and a lot of the guys available in those rounds will have “a full round premium” associated with their perceived value to well prepared front offices like ours. This is the year more prospects are coming out after Covid stuff kinda threw s monkey wrench into their plans last year.
Originally Posted by BossChief:
If 3 QBs are taken in the top 20, the value will be to select the prospect that got pushed down rather than trading down.
So which is it then?
[Reply]
htismaqe 02:10 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
If 3 QBs are taken in the top 20, the value will be to select the prospect that got pushed down rather than trading down.
Exactly.
[Reply]
staylor26 02:13 PM 03-28-2022
I’m open to anything.

Trade up, trade down, or stay put.

I’d like to keep as many picks as possible, so hopefully a trade up wouldn’t cost too much, but if there’s a guy that they REALLY want, and it’s reasonable, go get him.
[Reply]
The Franchise 02:15 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
I’m open to anything.

Trade up, trade down, or stay put.

I’d like to keep as many picks as possible, so hopefully a trade up wouldn’t cost too much, but if there’s a guy that they REALLY want, and it’s reasonable, go get him.
Honestly....I'm only trading up for a DE and it's going to be, at the highest, around 21-22. The cost for trading up higher than that is to much to spend IMO.
[Reply]
staylor26 02:16 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
Honestly....I'm only trading up for a DE and it's going to be, at the highest, around 21-22. The cost for trading up higher than that is to much to spend IMO.
Agreed, but not really worried about that because I don’t think it’s an option.
[Reply]
The Franchise 02:18 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
Agreed, but not really worried about that because I don’t think it’s an option.
If Jermaine Johnson and George Karlaftis are gone....then I'm staying put at 29 and 30....and taking BPA.
[Reply]
BossChief 02:21 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
So which is it then?
Both. It’s nuanced by the scenario you suggested OC 3 QBs going off the board by pick 20.
[Reply]
The Franchise 02:22 PM 03-28-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
Both. It’s nuanced by the scenario you suggested OC 3 QBs going off the board by pick 20.
In your trade down scenario....how many QBs were off the board?
[Reply]
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