https://theathletic.com/1432331/2019...econdary-more/

One more good one from Seth Keysor at 'The Athletic'. (Free trial subscription available at https://theathletic.com ) PM me if you know how to turn off autoplay for uploaded MP4s. Until I get that info, you can pause the videos if they bother you.

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It’s been a weird couple of weeks for the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense.

That’s an odd sentence to type after their thorough demolishing of the Raiders on Sunday. However, the win was on the back of the defense, as the offense was opportunistic but gained a paltry 259 total yards. Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes was held below 200 yards for the second straight week.

We’ll talk about Mahomes shortly, but after reviewing the film, it’s impossible to discuss his performance against Oakland on an individual level. The issues the Chiefs are experiencing — they are still third in offensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders, so “issues” is a relative term here — start up front, in both the pass and the run game. In particular, the interior of the offensive line has reached a point of inconsistency that is affecting both methods to advance the ball.

One of the most glaring issues is that the pocket is being consistently pushed back or moved.



Note where the line of scrimmage is and where the pass rushers are by the time Mahomes makes his throw. This isn’t an immediate release by Mahomes, but it is relatively quick, with the ball coming out in a little under three seconds. Despite that, Mahomes must make the throw under duress as center Austin Reiter allows pressure up the middle.

This wouldn’t be problematic if it were an exception, but the majority of snaps in the passing game that weren’t immediate throws featured something similar or, in some cases, even more direct pressure. If the line wasn’t getting moved backward, there were issues handling stunts from the defensive line.



Here, the right side of the line, particularly right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, is slow to recognize the stunt, and the result is quick pressure. Because of the clumsy way the stunt was handled, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz loses inside as well. Mahomes is forced to throw without stepping into the pass and with rushers in his face. While the line has been better this season against this sort of action, it’s still problematic far too often.

There were issues with individual failures along the line as well. All three interior linemen took turns losing during pass-protection sets.



This is another play in which the ball gets out in time, but due to Duvernay-Tardif losing, the throw is made under pressure. I charted seven snaps in pass protection in which the interior offense line lost quickly, with most of those times resulting in pressure on Mahomes.

It was impossible to predict before a pass play whether the interior would hold up or allow the pocket to be pushed. The problem with this is that pressure along the interior, even if it doesn’t reach Mahomes, alters the dynamic of the play. If the pocket isn’t safe, Mahomes can’t step up and the edge rushers have a much easier time reaching him knowing that there’s little risk of being pushed wide. It also creates trust issues between Mahomes and the line, and that’s starting to show up in how Mahomes is dropping back to pass.



Here, Mahomes takes a three-step drop. However, he doesn’t stop there; he continues to back up, moving a full 4 yards backward and to the left after the top of the drop. This is happening more with each passing week as Mahomes loses trust in the interior of the line to create a viable pocket. That was even noted by the commentators during last week’s Monday Night Football game.

However, there are multiple reasons more quarterbacks don’t utilize this “technique.” The primary problem is that it alters the angles of pass protection for both tackles. Offensive linemen are protecting a spot, not the quarterback himself. They know where he’s supposed to be based on the play call, and if the quarterback moves from that area, they have no way of seeing it. However, pass rushers can track the movement and break off their rush in pursuit, and offensive linemen are helpless to stop them without holding.

The other issue with backing up from the top of the drop is that it messes with a quarterback’s footwork and increases the distance to make throws. While an extra 4 yards might not seem like a big deal, that distance matters even for Mahomes when trying to make throws downfield. Additionally, most routes are predicated on timing, with the ball coming out at a certain moment. If Mahomes tries to get the ball out while still backpedaling, his accuracy suffers. And it all stems from a lack of trust up front.

The Chiefs’ interior offensive line didn’t fare much better as a run-blocking unit against the Raiders, consistently getting beaten at the point of attack.



Oakland defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins dominated the line of scrimmage Sunday, similarly to how he did when the teams met in Week 2. The line wasn’t able to move him out of rushing lanes or wall him off, and there was consistent penetration from other defenders as well. This often snuffed out runs before they could begin. The Chiefs couldn’t run the ball until rookie Darwin Thompson was able to have success late in the game.

The interior line will need to play better if the Chiefs want to have more consistent success on offense without Mahomes needing to play like a superhero. All three interior linemen have played at a significantly higher level than they have the last few weeks, so there may be a turnaround coming. Additionally, backup Stefen Wisniewski played well when given a chance and should be considered as an option to help staunch the bleeding.

Mahomes’ recent “struggles”

Mahomes has become the subject of conversation the past couple weeks after putting up arguably the worst back-to-back performances of his career. Before discussing what has been happening on the field, it’s important to consider the standard Mahomes is being held to.

Here’s Mahomes’ charted numbers against the Raiders.



(Note: Because not all passes can be charted for accuracy and/or depth of target, the numbers will look odd at times. For an in-depth discussion about the numbers and how they gauge quarterback play, click here)

I thought it would be helpful to combine Mahomes’ numbers from the past two games and average them out, then compare them to former Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith’s 2017 season, which was by far the best of his career. Mahomes’ averaged numbers from the last two games are first, then Smith’s numbers immediately follow.



When comparing the two quarterbacks, it’s worth noting that Mahomes’ accuracy percentage isn’t as good as Smith’s (76.2 percent to 82 percent). However, Mahomes is pushing the ball to the intermediate zones much more frequently. Mahomes has missed fewer shots down the field while maintaining (slightly) better pocket presence under considerably more pressure in terms of flushes. Mahomes has made more “franchise” throws as well. The area Smith is decisively better is potential picks, though it’s worth noting that Mahomes’ 1.5 rate is in line with most NFL quarterbacks and Smith was notoriously conservative.

None of this is to start a Mahomes vs. Smith debate, which would be pointless and has an obvious answer. The purpose is to demonstrate that in two games that are perhaps the worst of his career, Mahomes still has been arguably better than Smith was in his best season as a pro. So while he certainly has been below his usual standard of play, to say he’s playing badly would be a massive exaggeration.

As discussed above, Mahomes seems like he has lost trust in the offensive line to hold up. That has resulted in him bailing out of clean pockets more frequently and returning to some bad habits he had in college and early on in his career.



Here, the Raiders show a stunt against the right side of the offensive line and Mahomes doesn’t wait to see whether it’s picked up. Instead, he takes off to his right, which opens up a lane for the edge rusher. Had Mahomes stayed put, he would have been fine in the pocket, and he likely would have seen Demarcus Robinson come open down the field for a potential touchdown. Mahomes even appeared to be looking that direction before getting happy feet and leaving the pocket.

Mahomes’ lack of trust has affected his footwork as discussed above, and as a result, his accuracy has gone down. He’s trying to get rid of the ball more quickly on plays where he has time to set his feet, and it has cost the Chiefs some big plays.



The Chiefs execute a drag-and-go with tight end Travis Kelce here, and it results in a wide open potential touchdown. Mahomes must move initially, but that’s part of the play design with tight end Blake Bell sealing off the defensive end. Mahomes has time to reset his feet before making the throw but instead wings it off-platform. As a result, the ball comes up a bit short and inside. Mahomes threw a dangerous potential pick when targeting receiver Sammy Watkins with a similar throw.

While Mahomes’ trust issues with the line are understandable, he needs to separate the times he has to throw on the move from times he’s able to use better technique. Until he does, his accuracy will continue to be more erratic than we’re used to seeing.

It’s worth noting that even at his “worst,” Mahomes still made a number of spectacular throws.



Mahomes has more time in the pocket here, although pressure does get home late (it could have been alleviated had he slid to his right). Mahomes sees Kelce open down the field and delivers a perfect throw in stride.

While Mahomes hasn’t been playing at his usual elite level the last two weeks, he’s still playing well above average in tough circumstances. That ceiling will need to be raised if the Chiefs want to make a Super Bowl run, but given Mahomes is merely three weeks removed from a near-perfect performance, it’s doubtful what we’ve seen the past few weeks is the new normal.

Mathieu and Thornhill’s impact

The Chiefs defense has been excellent the last several weeks, especially the pass defense. A big part of that has been the play of Tyrann Mathieu, who has emerged as the leader of the secondary as well as a playmaker. In addition, Mathieu’s varied skill set and understanding of the game allows defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to use him in a variety of ways to confuse opposing quarterbacks.



Here, Mathieu gives the appearance that he’s either playing man or some form of Cover-3, either of which would take him to the deep portion of the field and leave a gap to be exploited in the intermediate left zone. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr sees his tight end is being covered by linebacker Damien Wilson in either man or about to pass him off deep, so he believes this could be a big play. Instead, Mathieu peels off and drops to the exact spot on the field the throw is going for an easy interception. While the catch itself was simple, it was made possible by fooling Carr as to what coverage Mathieu was playing.

Mathieu’s intelligence and versatility allows Spagnuolo to use him all over the field and in various roles, which helps disguise coverages and gives other players freedom elsewhere.



Here, Mathieu is used in man coverage against a slot receiver, something many safeties would struggle with. Because he’s used in so many ways, Carr has no way of knowing it’s man or zone prior to the snap and is left to guess. Further, Mathieu’s ability to handle the receiver alone allows Juan Thornill and Daniel Sorensen to help bracket other threats on the play and Carr has nowhere to throw the ball.

Thornhill has been an exceptional addition as well, and not just for his athletic gifts. He also has contributed to a defense that is communicating much better at the back end.



Here, the Raiders are lined up in a bunch formation on the right side, which gave the Chiefs fits last season. Thornhill talks with cornerback Bashaud Breeland prior to the snap and as a result, Thornhill knows Breeland is going to give up inside leverage to protect against a throw to the outside and Breeland knows Thornhill can break on a throw to the inside. They trust one another to do their job, and the result is Carr being baited into a pick-six.

Thornhill still struggles with missed tackles on occasion, but has (along with Mathieu) been a huge part of the pass defense being much more difficult to throw against this season.

Cornerbacks are contributing

It wasn’t just the safeties who helped smother Carr and the Raiders. Oakland had just one completion to a wide receiver prior to a garbage-time fourth-quarter drive, and solid play from the cornerbacks was a major contributing factor. Often, Carr had nowhere to go with the ball. One example came on a red-zone drive late in the third quarter. On first down, the coverage forced Carr to throw the ball away despite very little pressure.



Both Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland stay glued to their receivers here, playing physical with an awareness of where they have help. The next snap developed similarly, with Morris Claiborne swapping in for Breeland and similarly staying aware of his assignment in an outside zone, leaving Carr with nowhere to throw. There were multiple snaps like this against Oakland, with the coverage helping create pressure.

Both Ward and Breeland had good games against Oakland, with Kendall Fuller returning to play well in limited snaps. Claiborne played 40 percent of the snaps and generally performed decently, though he had more lapses than the other three. Rookie Rashad Fenton was relegated to two snaps with the veterans all healthy but is someone who has shown he can contribute.

The Chiefs’ cornerbacks have played above their perceived ability for most of the season, and that has been particularly true of late. They are conscious of their assignments and rarely blow coverages while being willing to play physical with receivers. Ward in particular has gone from flashing potential to consistently good and looks like he could be a long-term solution at the position. The unit as a whole has been stronger than the sum of its parts, and credit should be given to the coaching staff as well as the players for that.

What’s going on with the receivers?

As of late, Kelce and Hill are the only playmakers who have flashed for the Chiefs. It’s concerning enough that I examined the snaps of the receivers to see if there was an issue with them getting separation. The answer, unfortunately for the Chiefs, is not a resounding “no.” Watkins and Robinson are not getting consistent separation if they are not schemed open, and Watkins in particular looks a step less explosive than last season and earlier this year.

In addition, the offensive line struggling has taken a toll on the time receivers have to get open. The ball is often coming out before most of the Chiefs’ receivers’ routes develop, as only Kelce and Hill are excellent at getting free quickly. Watkins and Robinson tend to need a bit more time or are placed in route combinations that require more time to get open, and with the interior of the line not holding up, that’s not happening.

Besides the line playing better, one solution for Reid is to get rookie Mecole Hardman on the field more. I wrote about his performance so far last week, and the speedy receiver out of Georgia looks much more explosive on his routes than the other options besides Hill. While Reid is rarely comfortable playing rookie receivers extensive minutes, the reality is his skill set better fits what the offense is attempting to do at this point.

With the Patriots looming, the offensive side of the ball will need to play better than it has in recent weeks. The pieces are certainly there to do so, but it will start with the line holding its own more consistently.


Seth Keysor is The Athletic's resident Kansas City Chiefs film analyst. He previously covered the Chiefs at SB Nation for more than seven years. Seth is also an attorney and pastor in Minnesota. Follow Seth on Twitter @RealMNchiefsfan.

https://theathletic.com/1432331/2019...econdary-more/
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