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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Baker's Dozen of Draft Donuts
kccrow 11:18 PM 03-27-2014
This started out as a bulleted list of things I think about in addressing the draft. I ended up with 13 bullets that reminded me of donuts. Maybe I've had a few too many brews... Feel free to argue with them or add to them.

Rule 1: If you need a starting QB, draft him in round 1.
Don't expect to get one anywhere else. If a QB doesn't have a first round grade, then he isn't likely going to become a starter. The odds go from bad to almost impossible once you get outside the top half of round 2. If you get one outside of round 1, consider yourself extremely fortunate, nearly to the point of you've won the lotto lucky.

Rule 2: Don't draft a backup QB in any round higher than round 4.
Why waste a premium pick on a backup at any position unless he's going to take over for an incumbent starter within two years? With that said, spending a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seldom results in a starting caliber QB. Don't waste the pick.

Rule 3: Never draft an OL in the top 15 picks.
If you're drafting in the top 15, you need skill players that can make an impact for your football team. Get those guys and a serviceable offensive line. The Pittsburgh Steelers are time-tested proof that you don't have to go get lineman really early. Its a myth in the NFL that you need an All-Pro left tackle. It is nice, but far from necessary. Don't go chasing fool's gold. The best teams normally have average tackles, and you can get those types in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Guards can be had in every draft in the 3rd through 5th rounds. Unless he's a plug-and-play immediate starter, don't go chasing after guards early either. I played a long time as a lineman, and I struggle with this one.

Rule 4: Never draft a RB in the first 2 rounds.
There are always a plethora of serviceable backs available in the 3rd round or later of every draft. Additionally, backs have a short shelf life. Don't spend premium picks on a position you have to fill regularly and don't need a super star at to win games in the NFL. Remember, the NFL is a passing league, and passing effectively is the most critical statistic in correlation with win percentage.

Rule 5: Always draft production over potential in Round 1.
The NFL is a win now league, not a wait and see league. The guys that produce generally continue to produce. While you can catch lightning in a bottle, the sure thing is always the best thing. It is critical that round 1 yields a starter, don't waste the pick. Take your chances later. Watch tape, not stop watches.

Rule 6: Don't draft special teams players in the first 3 rounds.
Most of the time, you have 7 picks so why waste the ones you want to try and get starters out of on special teamers? You can fill your roster and get great kickers in round 4-7. Teams that forget this fact hurt their team's growth more often than not.

Rule 7: Draft for Scheme, not for Skills.
You're running a football team that must gel as a single unit. Draft players that fit what you're trying to do as a football team. If you draft players that don't fit because of measurable attributes and then try to adapt to them, you're going to fail.

Rule 8: Always draft to throw the ball or stop the pass first.
If you're a bad team, chances are you can't do either of these effectively. The only way to improve is to do this. Don't adhere to the philosophy that you need to run the ball and stop the run, it's been proven to be false in the NFL for over 25 years. That means you need a QB, WRs, and Pass Rushers before all else.

Rule 9: Draft WRs that run good routes and catch with their hands.
It doesn't really matter how fast they run (to an extent), how high they jump, nor any other metric, what matters most is that they can create separation and catch the ball. Drafting based primarily on speed more often hurts than helps. If in doubt, drafting for size is better.

Rule 10: Draft BPA at a Position of Need.
Never adhere to the philosophy that you draft the best player available, because that simply is not and should not be the case. If you do not have an immediate or near future need for a position, you shouldn't make a pick that won't improve your football team. If you're confident, a trade down attempt should be made. If that fails, improve your team. Remember though, look about 2 years into the future when projecting need. Remember, a player is only a reach in the eyes of pundits. If you need him, he's up on your board, and he fits your scheme, draft him.

Rule 11: Draft DL and OL that get off the snap quickly.
Nothing is more important than how quickly a player can release off the snap of the ball, and these two areas are most critical. To win at the point, you have to be the first to the point. Dumb it way down and think about who wins an arm wrestling match. Gaining initial leverage is everything.

Rule 12: Never draft a LB that can't cover.
No matter the scheme, you give away your defensive tendencies easily by not having LBs that can cover. If you run a 4-3 and you have a thumper at ILB, I'm going to execute the middle zone with crosses and inside hitches all day long. If you have a 3-4 and you rush an OLB most of the time because he is a liability in coverage, I'm going to swing to that flat more often. When you overcompensate to take those things away with other players, it leaves their responsibilities open and I adjust. LBs are undervalued, because they can dictate much of what the defense is able to do.

Rule 13: Draft physical, confident players.
All the athleticism or size in the world matters little if that player's demeanor is wrong. You have to draft physical, confident football players. Physical players show up on tape. If a corner won't stick his nose into a pile and try to take down a running back, don't draft him. I could go on, just make sure the player wants it.
[Reply]
OldSchool 09:49 AM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Dayze:
I pretty much agree with the entire list.
As far as depth of analysis goes, it's probably on par with John Madden's game day commentary.
[Reply]
Bewbies 10:14 AM 03-29-2014
In Sacc's world the franchise OT is somewhere north of the holy grail.
[Reply]
kccrow 12:19 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Saccopoo:
I'm just pointing out that the most recent Super Bowl Champions have players at nearly every position that go against your draft rules.

Sure, they may not have drafted them, but they have acquired them and a large number of the Seahawks draft picks since Carroll and Schneider have taken over the team are playing and contributing and starring in a number of cases.

Really what I'm saying is that there are no rules other than you hope that you draft the best guy for your system. The Seahawks have done just that more often than not.

And I like what Dorsey and Reid have done in their first draft. They look like they drafted an interesting combination of football players and high potential guys. We'll see how they pan out over the next couple of seasons, but I'm pretty interested in seeing what path they take here in 2014.
Draft for Scheme. You said it right here.
[Reply]
Saccopoo 01:09 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Bewbies:
In Sacc's world the franchise OT is somewhere north of the holy grail.
Offensive Tackles picked in the Top 15 the last 20 years:

Doubles, Triples and Home Runs:
1995: Tony Boselli (5xPro Bowl, 3xAll Pro, Hall of Fame Nominee)
1996: Jonathan Ogden (Hall of Fame, Super Bowl Champ, 11xPro Bowl, 5xAll Pro); Willie Anderson (4xPro Bowl, 3xAll Pro, 13 year NFL career)
1997: Walter Jones (Hall of Fame, Super Bowl, 9xPro Bowl, 7xAll Pro), Orlando Pace (Super Bowl Champ, 7xPro Bowl, 5xAll Pro)
1998: Tra Thomas (3xPro Bowl, 1xAll Pro, 2 NFC Championship Games, All-Eagles 75 year Team)
1999: John Tait (Super Bowl, 2xPro Bowl, 11 year career)
2000: Chris Samuels (6xPro Bowl, 1xAll Pro, 141 starts out of 141 games played)
2001: Leonard Davis (Super Bowl, 3xPro Bowl, 1xAll Pro)
2003: Jordan Gross (Super Bowl, 3xPro Bowl, 1xAll Pro, 167 starts out of 167 games)
2006: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (3X Pro Bowl, 2xAFC Champion, 128 starts out of 128 games, current starting LT for Jets)
2007: Joe Thomas (7xPro Bowl, 4xAll Pro, current starting LT for Browns)
2008: Jake Long (4x Pro Bowl, 1xAll Pro, starting LT for Rams); Ryan Clady (3x Pro Bowl, 2x All Pro, starting LT for Broncos)
2010: Russell Okung (Super Bowl Champ, 2x ProBowl, current LT Seahawks); Trent Williams (2x Pro Bowl, 55 starts out of 56 games, current LT Redskins)
2011: Tyron Smith (1x Pro Bowl, 1x 2nd team All Pro, current LT Cowboys)
2012: Matt Khalil (1x Pro Bowl, current LT Vikings)

Hits:
1994: Wayne Gandy (15 year NFL career, 205 starts out of 219 games)
2001: Kenyatta Walker (Super Bowl Champ, 6 year career, 73 starts out of 75 games)
2002: Bryant McKinnie (Super Bowl Champ, 1xPro Bowl, 13 year career)
2008: Branden Albert (1x Pro Bowl, current starting LT Dolphins)
2009: Andre Smith (50 starts out of 59 games, current OT Bengals); Eugene Monroe (73 starts out of 76 games, current LT Ravens)
2010: Anthony Davis (Super Bowl, current RT 49ers)

Misses:
1994: Bernard Williams (4 year career)
2002: Levi Jones (7 year career, 97 games started out of 103)
2002: Mike Williams (7 year career, 56 starts out of 59 games)
2004: Robert Gallery (8 year career, 103 starts out of 104 games)
2005: Jammal Brown (7 year career, 84 starts out of 85 games)
2007: Levi Brown (79 starts out of 81 games, currently on Steelers roster)
2009: Jason Smith (4 year career, 26 starts out of 45 games)

Inconclusive based on rookie season:
2013: Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, DJ Fluker

And those are all of the OT's drafted in the first 15 picks over the last 20 years.
[Reply]
kccrow 01:45 PM 03-29-2014
So on that list, 5 won a SuperBowl. I see one for sure that didn't do it with the team that draft him in McKinnie. Another, Walker, was moved to RT after his rookie year.

Expanding that, it looks as though another 6 made it to the Super Bowl? 11/20 to the Super Bowl is pretty good. 4/20 to Win the SB with the team that drafted them is not so good. 3/20 as a LT looks even worse.

So, if the ultimate goal is winning a SuperBowl, do you go with 50% chance the player will get you there, or a 20% chance the player will help you win one? Hmm. There is, of course, the other side of it that shows that you don't need a top tier tackle to win a SB 80% of the time. Tough choice. Opinion Sac?
[Reply]
Bewbies 01:46 PM 03-29-2014
Of the 5 that won the SB, give me one who's team wouldn't have done it without them...
[Reply]
Saccopoo 02:31 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by kccrow:
So on that list, 5 won a SuperBowl. I see one for sure that didn't do it with the team that draft him in McKinnie. Another, Walker, was moved to RT after his rookie year.

Expanding that, it looks as though another 6 made it to the Super Bowl? 11/20 to the Super Bowl is pretty good. 4/20 to Win the SB with the team that drafted them is not so good. 3/20 as a LT looks even worse.

So, if the ultimate goal is winning a SuperBowl, do you go with 50% chance the player will get you there, or a 20% chance the player will help you win one? Hmm. There is, of course, the other side of it that shows that you don't need a top tier tackle to win a SB 80% of the time. Tough choice. Opinion Sac?
My opinion is that it's a position that doesn't really bust (Jason Smith and Bernard Williams are the two real notable "busts" while the others did play and contribute), that enables you to move a guy to potentially four/five different positions to maximize their potential and help the team.

It's not a bad position to pick from in the top 15 if you want a guy who's going to contribute at a high level - all things considered.
[Reply]
Saccopoo 02:34 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Bewbies:
Of the 5 that won the SB, give me one who's team wouldn't have done it without them...
Rams and Ravens with Pace and Ogden.

And I think that Okung was a significant factor in the Seahawks win/season.
[Reply]
Bewbies 03:42 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Saccopoo:
Rams and Ravens with Pace and Ogden.

And I think that Okung was a significant factor in the Seahawks win/season.
I think if you're looking at Okung or Ogden you're watching the wrong side of the ball.
[Reply]
Saccopoo 03:57 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Bewbies:
I think if you're looking at Okung or Ogden you're watching the wrong side of the ball.
Ball control and field position has a lot to do with that (defensive dominance) and both Okung and Ogden were instrumental in achieving success in those areas on the offensive side of the ball.
[Reply]
htismaqe 05:23 PM 03-29-2014
:-)

90% of the pictures Sac posted actually SUPPORT the OP's hypotheses.

What a maroon.
[Reply]
Saccopoo 06:22 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
:-)

90% of the pictures Sac posted actually SUPPORT the OP's hypotheses.

What a maroon.
You swallow the wrong pill today or something?
[Reply]
htismaqe 06:35 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by Saccopoo:
You swallow the wrong pill today or something?
I don't need any medication.

I'm perfectly sane. And pretty smart.

More than half of those pictures actually SUPPORT what he's saying.
[Reply]
Saccopoo 07:09 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
I don't need any medication.

I'm perfectly sane. And pretty smart.

More than half of those pictures actually SUPPORT what he's saying.
Would you like to pontificate on your hypothesis?
[Reply]
Sfeihc 07:13 PM 03-29-2014
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
I don't need any medication.

I'm perfectly sane. And pretty smart.
Not that I support Sac in any way but your post proves otherwise.:-)
[Reply]
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