I don’t think that they will want Matheiu to go. I’m confident they get him signed. Also think Brown Jr will get done and they’ll prepare to use the tag on Tyreek to get a deal done.

I do think Hitchens and Clark are as good as gone. I also think they will attack the DL hard next Spring like they did the OL.

I want multiple pass rushers to supplement Chris Jones. Just look at what a good pass rush does. We’ve been missing that as a unit for a few years now.
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Give Clark the June 1 tag and you free up $28 million by ditching those 2.

But as has been noted, I just don't see a way to responsibly give Mathieu the contract he wants and probably deserves. Not if you want to stay cap healthy enough to get OBJ done and then Hill (who you really should extend next year to keep from having to pay him through age 32 or so).

I'd always had Ward re-signing but Sneed has made that far less likely. He just seemed like a vital keep but then he stopped progressing while Sneed has exploded onto the scene.

Honestly what you end up hoping for is Mathieu nets a 3rd, Ward nets a 4th, Jarran Reed gets you a 4th or 5th, Nnadi could be a 3rd day pick, guys like Reed and Nnadi will probably be offset by FA signings of our own.

You hope that Bieniemy gets a HC gig and Poles gets a GM gig for an additional couple of 3rd rounders.

I mean if you could end up with 3 extra third rounders and an extra 4th, you could do a whole lot of damage in the draft. Were it me running it, I'd stay put and add as many bodies on the first 2 days as possible (If you get 7 picks in the first 4 rounds, that's 7 guys replaced for cheeeaaaap).

Mathieu has earned a bag - I just don't think KC is in a position to give it to him at this point.
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Those picks won't come in until 2023.
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You don't need to tag Hill.
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I think we've largely hashed out the financial implications in numerous other threads. Even with all the gains, KC can make with restructures and extensions, they still have to re-sign Orland Brown Jr, which will cut into that a healthy 12-15m in year one. That will leave the Chiefs at about 2 million per for the rest of the roster holes. Really, you might get a couple/few mid-level free agents to go with a bunch of vet min types. That said, the Chiefs could backload the shit out of some deals in hopes the cap explodes to the levels expected in the next couple of years.

Anyhow, I don't see things the same way as you do. I think the word "manageable" in whatever tense or context you have is the wrong word on its own. I think it's managing the level of talent at various positions.


Positions that need cheap depth but will retain an established level of talent or improve slightly based on experience.

QB - Low-priced backup time.
RB - Depth is cheap.
OL - Depth is cheap (pending the Orlando Brown Jr re-signing of course)
LB - Not as "fine" if Hitchens is cut but vet LBs are routinely quite cheap. Like you posted, I think you could offer Hitchens a take-it-or-get-cut deal and see what happens or replace his productivity for significantly less.

Positions with challenges but retaining the same level of talent can be managed or improved.

WR - First off, you have the overlying Hill extension that needs to be done. After that, you have Hardman and a lot of nothing. Sure, that seems tenuous. Can you bring back just about everyone on one-year deals for relatively cheap? More likely than not but you're continually kicking the can down the road. I think you're making it increasingly difficult to manage the position by not spending draft capital and not locking up guys for longer than a year. The good news is that you'll continually have plentiful free-agent options here. The bad news is you have to throw numbers at it and hope one can stick. Either way, the Chiefs can get better here with a high draft pick. They can stay the same with relatively mediocre free agents or retaining some/all of their own. I don't think this is an especially difficult situation in terms of managing talent level for 2022. Getting Hill extended is important long-term.

ER - Sometimes there is addition by subtraction. The Chiefs will likely have to dump Frank Clark, but his talent on the field is a fraction of his contract. The Chiefs may be able to get a relative bargain on a guy like Derek Barnett, Josh Sweat, or a few others. They could also eye the draft and spend a high pick. Either way, I really don't see the Chiefs going backward here. I do agree that dumping Tim Ward was a bad idea superficially. We'll have to see what happens long-term. We also should see continued development from Danna and Kaindoh. Depth guys like Okafor are there every year for cheap.

Positions with challenges and retaining the same level of talent is likely difficult or impossible.

S - Sure, you're probably playing without Tyrann next year. If I had it my way, I'd back the Brinks' truck up to Jessie Bates' door. Anyhow, even though money is tight I don't know that it makes the position "difficult to manage" and especially not "very difficult to manage." At worst, you can put band-aids here for a year but the position is deep in FA and looks solid in the draft. I think you can make a solid play by spending above-average money on a guy like Jordan Whitehead (TB) to replace Mathieu and then adding another upside player in the draft. That said, maintaining the overall level of talent Mathieu and Sorensen bring is not likely possible and we'll see regression here.

DL - Nnadi being a free agent is a bigger deal than people give credence to, especially given his ability to be a cog in the run game. Add in that Jarran Reed is a one-year rental, not to mention Jones largely switching positions, and this group could be a difficult one to maintain. Nnadi should command at least 3.5 million on a one-year deal, which isn't impossible to keep around, but there are similar options in guys like Andrew Billings and DJ Jones should he leave. The Chiefs still do have Wharton and Saunders as depth, but replacing Reed will be the most difficult. If Jones spends the majority of time at DE, his lack of presence on the interior will be felt regardless. Overall, we could see some regression over the performance I'm expecting in 2021.

CB - The Chiefs will definitely use the ERFA option on Baker and Lammons to go with Sneed and Fenton so they won't lack experience. I'm sure they'll lose Ward and the jury is out on Mike Hughes. They'll have plenty of vet options in FA. I'm not too worried about managing the numbers here, or even the starters. I'd say it's marginally more challenging than LB/RB/OL/QB but not much. That said, it could be a difficult play to maintain the talent level here with a Ward exit given the Chiefs' lack of resources. Even high picks seldom play at an extremely high level right away.
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I love Honey Badger, I do, but I don't think it's wise to sign him to another big money deal at his age and with the injury history. He's been healthy the last couple of years...but I don't know. Might just be a Berry hangover. My spirit ain't willing.

I think it might be time to reload on that side of the ball.

Clark and Hitchens are gone for sure. We already drafted Hitch's replacement.

Gonna need to do an OBJ deal. Hill you need to keep.

Probably going to have to roll with some younger, cheaper talent. That's ok. That's what you have to do to stay on top.
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