I recall a thread in here or in the Lounge either during the season or last offseason about trading Tyreek but I can't seem to find it.
Anyhow, I thought at the time that the very notion was absurd but now I'm having second thoughts. Then again, maybe it's the few brain cells I still call "active" just bouncing around in the endless space they have available.
I know that KC has a need at WR already but they also have to look at the future. I think about the Vikings trading away Stefon Diggs and I thought how stupid it was until they drafted what may be a better player in Justin Jefferson with the 1st round pick they got and saved a load of money in the process.
Now, the Bills gave up a 1st, 5th, 6th, and future 4th for Diggs and a 7th.
When I think about how dynamic Hill is in terms of being a game-changer in a split second, I think he may bring a bigger return.
So, hypothetical...
Let's say a team calls you up that's in desperate need of a sure-fire playmaker because they just don't possess any. My logical thought for such a thing would be the Atlanta Falcons.
Part I
The Falcons offer you the 8th overall pick and their 3rd round pick #74.
You pretend your Bart and field the call. Do you accept the trade and save $18 million on the cap this year, thus rolling the dice by needing both a #1 and #2 receiver, or do you decline and force your hand to pay this guy at least another 90 million (and likely more) over the next 4 years?
Part II
The Falcons are gun shy and don't want to give up the #8 overall but the Eagles call offering 15 and 83 because they think Hill puts them over the top. Would you still do the deal if you'd do it for #8 or would you back out?
Part III
If you still haven't said no freakin' way, at what point do you say no? [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
That looks OK-ish.
Question:
Did you consider making Calvin Ridley the player coming back instead of Jones?
That would make sense to me and would make the deal a lot more palatable. Also leaves you with more cap space this year and probably allows aiming higher at DE/free agents.
Take the money from Gallup and Green and plop it on one DE, and I think we like the result.
Second question:
You're picking 8th and Karlaftis and Ojabo are both available. Who do you take?
I didn't really consider Ridley. 1) I'm concerned about long-term availability given last year's sabbatical. 2) Deion Jones is an elite coverage player at LB that can line up against anyone and instantly transforms a defense.
The only real concern would be Atlanta being willing to let Jones go, especially with Oluokun being a free agent they can't afford.
In part 2, I'd be most inclined to go Ojabo. I guess it depends on what else I had for DEs. That said, I'm not all that concerned with run defending DEs as much as I am guys that can get to the QB in today's NFL. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I didn't really consider Ridley. 1) I'm concerned about long-term availability given last year's sabbatical. 2) Deion Jones is an elite coverage player at LB that can line up against anyone and instantly transforms a defense.
The only real concern would be Atlanta being willing to let Jones go, especially with Oluokun being a free agent they can't afford.
In part 2, I'd be most inclined to go Ojabo. I guess it depends on what else I had for DEs. That said, I'm not all that concerned with run defending DEs as much as I am guys that can get to the QB in today's NFL.
On Ridley, I don't have a HUGE issue with the sabbatical. You'd have to check him out and be confident he was going to commit to playing for you, but if you feel confident in it I'm not sure there's a better replacement for WR1 available anywhere.
I'm just hesitant to splash a bunch of cash on an off-ball LB. You and I see that differently fairly consistently, so no surprise there.
I'd pick Ojabo at that spot, too. Though there's now apparently a small chance Thibodeaux slides a bit. That would be a coup.
It's a fun exercise. I'm going to take a stab at it. [Reply]
So, I took a run at this, re-working the structure based loosely on crow's approach.
Trade: WR Tyreek Hill to Atlanta for WR Calvin Ridley, 2022 #8, 2022 #72.
Cut Frank Clark (pre-June 1); Restructure Mahomes and Kelce. End up with $57M in cap space from those moves.
Re-sign in Free agency: LT O. Brown, Jr. (6y $135m w/ $52m guaranteed, 6th year is basically a void year with $6M guaranteed on a big salary - 1st y 11M)
CB Charvarious Ward (5y, $84M, 1st y 8M)
WR B. Pringle (Vet Min Cap Benefit + $1.25m)
DE Melvin Ingram (2 years, $10M)
ERFA tender TE J. Fortson, RB D. Gore, and CB D. Baker.
Vet Minimum deals: FB M. Burton, OL A. Blythe, OL Andrew Wylie, LB B. Niemann, LB D. O'Daniel, SS A. Watts, RB J. McKinnon
With this group, I'm bringing back a lot of certainty. I'm fine tacking on the extra year for Ward to spread the bonus out a bit more and increase his guarantee to make that happen.
Open Free Agency: WR D.J. Chark (4 years, $50M, $7M year 1 hit)
DT Maliek Collins (2 years, $11M)
vet QB (1 year/$2M)
DE Charles Harris (3 years, $21M)
S Marcus Maye (1 year, $4M, with incentives to $12M based on playing time, performance)
OK, I went a little different direction here, still adding a dynamic WR who could ascend and a solid vetern DT in Collins. Harris is a young pass rusher who finally seemed to deliver on his 1st round talent in 21. Maye is on a prove-it deal.
Draft:
1.8 - Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
1.30 - Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
2.62 - Jalen Pitre, DB, Baylor
3.72 - Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
3.94 - Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss
3.103 - James Cook, RB, Georgia
4.132 - Sterling Weatherford, LB/S, Miami (OH)
7.229 - Kyle Phillips, WR, UCLA
7.238 - Nick Ford, IOL, Utah
7.239 - Danny Gray, WR, SMU
7.247 - McKinley Williams, LB, Arkansas
7.254 - Zamir White, HB, Georgia
A few comments here: I've seen Walker's stock all over the place, but his combination of size and freakish athleticism made him my best option at 8. (OK, I tossed a coin between him and Ojabo. For real). My next two picks mirror crows... a future stud at DT, and a do-everything DB who can help fill the Mathieu void.
I would love getting someone with Williams' upside in the 3rd like this, and with the depth I have added so far, he can basically play rush end and take advantage of his freakish athletic ability.
Pierce and Cook add some versatility and speed to the offense. Pierce could be a really strong long-term piece and good complement to Ridley. Cook's speed and receiving ability make him my future at RB.
Weatherford is another new name for me, but he popped up at the Senior Bowl and played well as a LB (converted S with LB size). Rest of the picks are BPA types, though I think Phillips could have pop up in a big way.
Depth Chart
QB Mahomes/vet
RB Edwards-Helaire/McKinnon or Cook
WR1 Ridley/Pringle
WR2 Chark/Pierce
WR3 Hardman/Phillips
TE Kelce/Gray
LT Brown/Prince
LG Thuney/Allegretti
C Humphrey/Blythe
RG Trey Smith/Ford
RT Wylie/Niang
RDE Harris/Sam Williams
DT Collins/Wyatt or Saunders
DT Jones/Wharton
LDE Ingram/Travon Walker
OCB Ward
OCB Sneed
NCB Fenton or Pitre (Sneed actually slides to nickel in this set)
FS Thornhill/Maye
SS Pitre/Maye/Weatherford
All in all, looking at that, I don't like it as much as making things happen with keeping Hill. But I do think it is something KC could roll with. Kelce/Ridley/Chark/Hardman/Pierce give the Chiefs a wealth of receiving options. [Reply]
Jones was pretty much awful last year. I'd rather not have him than have him at those cap figures. That's nasty.
? Awful ? I guess we're going to have to agree to define awful in completely different contexts. Was his coverage not as good? Yeah a bit. Was he awful? I don't know if the 12 ranked player in both total and solo tackles is what I'd define as awful.
Originally Posted by kccrow:
? Awful ? I guess we're going to have to agree to define awful in completely different contexts. Was his coverage not as good? Yeah a bit. Was he awful? I don't know if the 12 ranked player in both total and solo tackles is what I'd define as awful.
He signed it 3 years ago.
Ever ask why a coverage backer would have so many tackles?
He lost a step this year (after losing one last year as well) so many of those tackles came as a result of a guy catching a ball that would've been knocked away or not even thrown in seasons past.
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I recall a thread in here or in the Lounge either during the season or last offseason about trading Tyreek but I can't seem to find it.
Anyhow, I thought at the time that the very notion was absurd but now I'm having second thoughts. Then again, maybe it's the few brain cells I still call "active" just bouncing around in the endless space they have available.
I know that KC has a need at WR already but they also have to look at the future. I think about the Vikings trading away Stefon Diggs and I thought how stupid it was until they drafted what may be a better player in Justin Jefferson with the 1st round pick they got and saved a load of money in the process.
Now, the Bills gave up a 1st, 5th, 6th, and future 4th for Diggs and a 7th.
When I think about how dynamic Hill is in terms of being a game-changer in a split second, I think he may bring a bigger return.
So, hypothetical...
Let's say a team calls you up that's in desperate need of a sure-fire playmaker because they just don't possess any. My logical thought for such a thing would be the Atlanta Falcons.
Part I
The Falcons offer you the 8th overall pick and their 3rd round pick #74.
You pretend your Bart and field the call. Do you accept the trade and save $18 million on the cap this year, thus rolling the dice by needing both a #1 and #2 receiver, or do you decline and force your hand to pay this guy at least another 90 million (and likely more) over the next 4 years?
Part II
The Falcons are gun shy and don't want to give up the #8 overall but the Eagles call offering 15 and 83 because they think Hill puts them over the top. Would you still do the deal if you'd do it for #8 or would you back out?
Part III
If you still haven't said no freakin' way, at what point do you say no?
Prophetic. Too bad the return for Hill was nowhere close to this. [Reply]
The lounge thread is moving faster than I can read it, pretty much. Curious to hear the non crybaby thoughts.
When you say you're not dissappointed above, did you mean in the compensation for Tyreek or in how close your estimate was?
For me, its a tiny bit dissappointing to not get that real high 1 like I hoped for, but its a pretty good haul of picks to work with, I never would have thought 6 picks was possible.
My thought process on a trade like this was always that Hill's production was reproducable, but I think you need to add a veteran free agent WR - I wish this was done sooner so there were more options. You probably want 4 above average weapons to work with, and you have 2 currently (I am calling Juju above average). One in the draft, one signed to a multi year deal now to make 4 and I am pretty happy with the offenses potential still.
Originally Posted by Chargem:
Clearly Bart reads our posts, Crow :-)
The lounge thread is moving faster than I can read it, pretty much. Curious to hear the non crybaby thoughts.
When you say you're not dissappointed above, did you mean in the compensation for Tyreek or in how close your estimate was?
For me, its a tiny bit dissappointing to not get that real high 1 like I hoped for, but its a pretty good haul of picks to work with, I never would have thought 6 picks was possible.
My thought process on a trade like this was always that Hill's production was reproducable, but I think you need to add a veteran free agent WR - I wish this was done sooner so there were more options. You probably want 4 above average weapons to work with, and you have 2 currently (I am calling Juju above average). One in the draft, one signed to a multi year deal now to make 4 and I am pretty happy with the offenses potential still.
Who would you add, of the WRs available?
I'm not disappointed in what the Chiefs received as compensation. I think it's a fairly reasonable deal.
Good on you, by the way, to have brought this up. I can't say I would have fathomed the possibility if not recalling what you wrote up and thinking about it with the pending contract and value of WRs getting so high.
I think KC has to add another vet in free agency. I don't know if that guy needs to be starter material but I'd highly prefer it. That said, there are not many options out there screaming at me. If I had a preference, it'd be Will Fuller. I remember him calling out the Chiefs to draft him. I think he'd be a nice piece that could man the Z and keep Mecole in the slot. I wouldn't mind Odell on a 1-year deal either.
I still like some other guys out there but I see them more as depth plays. Tre'Quan Smith is one.
I don't know if I'd give much up in a trade for anyone out there. A future 5th for Laviska Shenault? Sure. Maybe our late 4th, certainly not 121.
As for the draft, I'd probably look hard at the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round guys and take 2. Not sure I'd look at anyone in the 1st unless Olave fell within a decent striking range. If KC moves up though, I'd rather it be for an edge guy.
Might put a mock together later just for fun. [Reply]
Reading back through this is pretty amazing. Well done, kccrow. You had a good idea of what veach might be thinking. I would have preferred to wait one more to trade hill but I get it. Really impressive analysis on our system and how it fits with PM and wrs and how hill could be traded. Let’s hope we nail the draft and build up the roster. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kccrow:
I know that KC has a need at WR already but they also have to look at the future. I think about the Vikings trading away Stefon Diggs and I thought how stupid it was until they drafted what may be a better player in Justin Jefferson with the 1st round pick they got and saved a load of money in the process.
Not to beat the drum any harder than I already am for J Williams, but tell me that he isn't the only WR that pops out at you that could fit this scenario with Tyreek? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Couch-Potato:
Not to beat the drum any harder than I already am for J Wiliams, but tell me that he isn't the only WR that pops out at you that could fit this scenario with Tyreek?
