10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Chance to make the playoffs: 80.1%
The Bengals' flaw: Punting
Punting? Yes, there are reasons to be concerned about what Cincinnati has done when booting away the ball. The Bengals have been below average on special teams this season, but they've particularly struggled with punting, where they've fielded the NFL's fourth-worst unit. Kevin Huber has been the league's second-worst punter in the league by the measures at Puntalytics, with Cincinnati gaining just 37.4 net yards per punt.
The Bengals added rookie Drue Chrisman to the roster and have had Huber inactive the past couple of weeks, but it's unlikely they would be carrying Huber on the roster if they weren't planning on going back to him at some point. Chrisman is untested in the postseason, and he also lost out to Huber when the two battled for the job in training camp.
Having subpar punting usually isn't the biggest worry for a playoff team. If you don't think having good special teams matters, though, ask Packers fans about what their 32nd-ranked special teams unit did in the postseason against the 49ers last January, when Corey Bojorquez had a punt blocked that San Francisco returned for a touchdown in a 13-10 loss. (And yes, special teams was listed as the fatal flaw for the Packers in this column last year.)
A subpar punting unit doesn't necessarily lead to blocks or touchdown returns, but it does lead to the subtle differences that can help decide a playoff game. A punt that should land inside the 5-yard line and potentially create both a long field for the opponent and a subsequently short field for its punting team turns into a touchback. A team driving for points late in the half picks up a few extra yards from an undercooked punt and gets into field goal range when it might have otherwise been stuck in no man's land.
The Bengals already have dealt with this sort of game. In their 19-17 loss to the Ravens in Week 5, Huber handed Baltimore short fields with punts of 28 and 34 yards. The Ravens turned those opportunities into 10 of their 19 points. And while it wasn't a punting issue, a blown protection against the Steelers in Week 1 on what should have been a game-sealing extra point pushed the contest into overtime, leading to a loss.
Team to avoid: Baltimore Ravens. I'll throw out what would be a third matchup against the Ravens, who perennially rank among the league leaders in special teams. They rank first in special teams DVOA and fourth in production on punt returns. Of course, the Bengals might have to go through the Ravens to determine their postseason fate, given that these two will meet in Week 18 with a division title potentially on the line.
9. Tennessee Titans (7-4)
Chance to make the playoffs: 87.8%
The Titans' flaw: Play-action pass defense
Some things don't make sense to me. Since Ryan Tannehill became the starting quarterback, the Titans have been the kings of the play-action pass. Tannehill's effectiveness has waned a bit in recent months, but since taking over in Week 6 of the 2019 season, he leads the league in play-action QBR (79.6) and yards per attempt (10.5). If any defense should be familiar with the play-action pass from defending its offense in practice, it's Tennessee.
And yet this season, the Titans have been sliced apart by play-action. Their pass defense is the fifth best by QBR when teams simply drop back and throw. When the opposing offense uses a play fake? They are allowing a QBR of 82.3, which ranks third worst. Mike Vrabel's defense has allowed teams to complete 69% of their attempts, average 8.4 yards per throw and toss up 10 touchdown passes against only one interception.
Tennessee already has battled this in one loss and one near defeat. In the blowout loss to the Bills in Week 2, Josh Allen went 14-of-18 for 219 yards with four touchdown passes off play-action. A few weeks later, when the Commanders came within 2 yards of beating the Titans before a Carson Wentz interception in the end zone, Washington went 7-of-11 for 179 yards and a score on play-action, including completions of 32, 34 and 75 yards.
Team to avoid: Buffalo Bills. We've already seen the Bills shred the Titans with their play-action game, and Buffalo's 78.4 QBR on play-action is the NFL's fifth best. The team right below them is the Chargers, but I strongly suspect the Titans would be delighted to go up against a team that struggles to stop the run as badly as L.A. does.
8. Miami Dolphins (8-3)
Chance to make the playoffs: 91.5%
The Dolphins' flaw: Pass rush
Quantitative measures are not in love with the Dolphins' pass defense, though it hasn't slowed them down during a five-game winning streak. Both Football Outsiders and Total QBR peg Miami as the league's ninth-worst pass defense, and the pass rush looms as a likely cause. Christian Wilkins & Co. have generated pressure at the fifth-lowest rate. The teams below them in the pressure charts are a combined 15-31. It's hard to win without generating consistent pass pressure.
The Dolphins weren't naive to this problem, which is why they used a first-round pick to acquire Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline. The good news is Chubb's arrival has increased their pressure rate; they have jumped to 13th since Week 9.
I must point out that their games over that stretch have come against the Bears, Browns and Texans; Jacoby Brissett's sack rate has been above average this season, while Kyle Allen and Justin Fields have run historically high sack rates in their brief time in the NFL. Given the opposition and game script, there's a decent chance the Dolphins would have posted improved pressure and sack rates over the past three weeks whether Chubb was there or not.
Bradley Chubb has 1.5 sacks in three games with the Dolphins. AP Photo/Lynne Sladky
Miami should be optimistic about how it addressed a clear weakness, but things fall apart when it doesn't generate pressure. No team has sent more blitzes without creating pressure than the Dolphins, and their numbers when that happens are unsurprisingly ugly; they allow a 124.5 passer rating. Things might improve in coverage if they get back cornerback Byron Jones from March ankle surgery, but there's no timetable for him to return.
Team to avoid: Cincinnati Bengals. The book on Joe Burrow and the Bengals has been to slow them down by getting pressure. It didn't work for the Dolphins earlier this season, when Burrow went 20-of-31 for 287 yards with two touchdown passes in a 27-15 victory. He has improved when it comes to getting the ball out quickly, as he has been pressured on just 24.5% of his dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.
7. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
Chance to make the playoffs: 95.7%
The Ravens' flaw: Opposing blitzes
In 2021, the book on slowing down Lamar Jackson involved sending extra pressure. Jackson was blitzed at the second-highest rate in the league, and it worked; he was the sixth-best quarterback when teams sent four rushers or fewer, but when they added on a fifth rusher (or more), his QBR dropped to 26th. Jackson is incredibly slippery in the pocket, but it's tougher to slip away from two or three rushers than it is one.
This season, it looked like the Ravens had found solutions to their problem. Over the first three weeks, Jackson posted a 99.2 QBR against the blitz. He averaged nearly 13 yards per attempt against extra pressure, throwing six touchdown passes without a pick. Add in his ability as a scrambler and the threat of a big play if he made it past the blitz, and defensive coordinators were likely facing sleepless nights against the new Jackson.
Unfortunately, it was a blip. Since then, he ranks 28th in QBR against extra rushers. He's averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt and has thrown five touchdown passes against three picks. With teams continuing to blitz him at the second-highest rate (behind only Jared Goff), the Ravens' offense has struggled to find consistency.
Outside of tight end Mark Andrews, the Ravens don't have any receivers who can consistently beat man-to-man coverage. DeSean Jackson beat zone coverage for a 61-yard gain against the Jaguars on Sunday, but he is 35 years old and a perpetual injury risk. Rashod Bateman was supposed to be that player, but the 2021 first-round pick played just 190 offensive snaps before suffering a season-ending left foot injury.
Team to avoid: Kansas City Chiefs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a well-earned reputation for dialing up timely exotic blitzes. The Chiefs have more defensive line depth than they have in years past and can get by rushing four, but they have the league's eighth-best QBR when sending extra rushers. The weakness of the Kansas City defense is at cornerback; do the Ravens have the wide receivers to exploit that problem?
6. San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Chance to make the playoffs: 97.9%
The 49ers' flaw: Kicking
It might be reasonable to name "health" as the argument for the 49ers, who seem to be dealing with injuries to two or three of their stars in any given week, but that's not really something another team can exploit. But yes, the biggest issue for the 49ers is probably keeping players like Jimmy Garoppolo, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel on the field for the entire season.
The 49ers have been one of the league's best teams over the past two months, so if health isn't a factor, one of their more notable issues might be with their oldest player. Kicker Robbie Gould, 40, has been a valuable addition since joining the franchise in 2017, but his effectiveness has waned. Gould has missed an extra point and three of his 17 kicks from inside of 50 yards. By Football Outsiders' measures, Gould and the 49ers have been the fifth-worst team in the league on scoring kicks this season.
Gould also handles kickoffs for the 49ers, and things haven't gone well there, either. San Francisco is the league's sixth-worst team in terms of value added or lost on kickoffs. Kickers can swing dramatically from season to season, but Gould has been average or below average in each of the past four seasons on scoring plays. Niners fans, of course, need no reminder of how special teams can impact a playoff game, with the 2011 NFC Championship Game coming to mind.
Team to avoid: Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are a tough matchup for anyone, but I'm naming them here because of a competitive advantage they enjoy: bad weather. The other top contenders in the NFC -- the Cowboys and Vikings -- play in domes. The Eagles also have a better record than the 49ers, so it's likely they would host San Francisco in a playoff game, while the Buccaneers or Seahawks would have to travel to Santa Clara.
5. Buffalo Bills (8-3)
Chance to make the playoffs: 98.2%
The Bills' flaw: Rushing offense
I think Josh Allen will stop throwing interceptions in the red zone, given that we saw the Bills' standout quarterback thrive inside the 20-yard line as a much lesser quarterback earlier in his career. One of the reasons Allen has struggled near the end zone, though, is that he has been forced to assume a huge workload in cramped quarters. When Allen isn't throwing or running the ball himself, the Bills have struggled to move the football.
Buffalo ranks 17th in rushing DVOA so far this season, but much of that is what Allen has done as a scrambler. When the Bills hand the ball off to one of their running backs, those ball carriers generate an average of minus-0.16 EPA per carry, the sixth-worst mark in football. The only team less effective running the ball with their halfbacks likely to make the postseason is Tampa Bay. The Bills added Nyheim Hines to the mix at the trade deadline, but the former Colts back hasn't been involved with the rushing attack.
Devin Singletary and the rest of the running back group have been able to keep the Bills on schedule, since their 43.5% success rate is seventh in football. But Buffalo's running backs are seven first downs below expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Allen's ability to pick up first downs mitigates some of those issues, but if Allen's UCL injury ever did inhibit his propensity to scramble, it would be an even bigger worry for the Bills.
Team to avoid: Los Angeles Chargers. Brandon Staley's defense doesn't do much against the run and has been only average against the pass this season, but there's a difference-maker who should be back for the Chargers if these two teams do meet up in the postseason. When the Chargers had defensive end Joey Bosa on the field this season, opposing passers posted a QBR of just 35.9. That sample is only three games long, but it includes Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes and a partial game from Trevor Lawrence.
The Chargers have allowed a 66.2 QBR since then, but with Bosa expected to return from a torn groin in December, the pass rush could look much scarier in the postseason. If the Chargers can limit the Buffalo passing attack and turn it into a game in which the Bills need to run the ball to win, they could represent a messy matchup for Buffalo.
4. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
The Vikings' flaw: Guard Ed Ingram
I'm not going to put "the spotlight" or "prime-time television." It's easy to criticize Kirk Cousins for his lack of production in nationally televised games, but remember that he and the Vikings upset a 13-3 Saints team in New Orleans as 7.5-point underdogs during the 2019 playoffs. History is filled with quarterbacks such as Joe Flacco and Eli Manning who simply weren't good enough to win a Super Bowl ... until they won a Super Bowl.
Instead, I have to point toward the rookie right guard on Minnesota's line. Ingram is this season's Hakeem Adeniji as the overmatched young lineman every defensive coordinator wants to try to exploit heading into game day. The struggles of Adeniji and the rest of the Cincinnati offensive line finally sunk the Bengals in the second half of Super Bowl LVI.
Ingram has allowed seven sacks in 11 games, a remarkable number for an interior lineman. His 85.5% pass block win rate ranks 61st out of 63 qualifying guards. He is better as a run-blocker, but he is a glaring weakness for the Vikings as they close out a noncompetitive race in the NFC North.
Team to avoid: Dallas Cowboys. They were able to exploit Ingram multiple times during their 40-3 win in Week 11. They also had success going after reserve left tackle Blake Brandel, who replaced the injured Christian Darrisaw.
No team has a deeper, more explosive pass rush than the Cowboys, who can line up a mismatch over Ingram on every single snap. Micah Parsons vs. Ingram is about as significant of a lopsided battle as you'll see between two players in the NFL.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
The Eagles' flaw: Run defense
While it has been presented as an issue caused by Jordan Davis' high ankle sprain, run defense has been the clear weakness for the Eagles throughout the season. Even while Davis was on the field through Week 8, they were allowing 5.2 yards per carry, which ranked 29th. Opposing offenses stayed ahead of schedule on 47.9% of their rush attempts, which was the fourth-worst mark in football. The 0.13 expected points added (EPA) per rush the Eagles allowed ranked 31st. This was a problem even before Davis went down injured.
The Eagles added veterans Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh to the roster in Davis' absence. Davis also was just activated from injured reserve, and his presence will help. Even before the injury, though, he was playing about 35% of the defensive snaps in a typical game.
Team to avoid: San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers just lost Elijah Mitchell for two months and have midseason addition Christian McCaffrey dealing with knee irritation, but coach Kyle Shanahan's offense has a long track record of gashing mediocre run defenses, regardless of who's carrying the football.
Remember what the Niners did to the Packers in the 2020 NFC Championship Game? If the Eagles were to get blown out in the NFC playoffs, their loss could look a lot like Raheem Mostert's four-touchdown day.
2. Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
The Cowboys' flaw: Game management
You've watched Mike McCarthy-coached teams plummet to earth in the postseason before. I would give the Cowboys a pass if he had left his old habits in Green Bay, but he brutally mismanaged the time late in the fourth quarter in Dallas' playoff loss to the 49ers a year ago.
Another McCarthy trope popped up in a recent Cowboys victory. During the blowout win over the Vikings, the commentary team said he had told them he wanted to aim for "30 rushes per game" to seal a victory. Aiming for a number of rushes as a path toward victory would be like trying to emulate the last Powerball winner by playing the same numbers or buying your ticket from the same store. Offenses rack up huge carry counts when they win, they don't win because they racked up rushing attempts.
A perfect example of how this can go wrong dates back to the 2014 NFC Championship Game, when McCarthy's Packers inherited a pair of short fields from the Seahawks and kicked field goals on fourth-and-inches, only to later blow a significant lead and lose in overtime. McCarthy said after the game that his target was "20 rushing attempts in the second half," which did not serve any purpose beyond simulating what teams do in a victory. In a close game, I would be worried about his tactical nous against most other NFL coaches.
Team to avoid: Philadelphia Eagles. They have been one of the league's most analytically inclined teams over the past two decades, and while Andy Reid wasn't exactly one for getting aggressive on fourth down, the Eagles have had plenty of success when Doug Pederson and Nick Sirianni have kept their foot on the gas.
We haven't seen Sirianni make meaningful decisions in the heat of a close postseason game, but after ranking sixth in Football Outsiders' Go For It rate a year ago, there's a decent chance he will give his team the best possible chance of pulling out a close game. I can't say the same thing about McCarthy.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
The Chiefs' flaw: Pass coverage
It's difficult to poke many holes in the Chiefs. Their 20-17 loss to the Colts in Week 3 was driven by one of the worst special teams performances in recent memory, courtesy of sloppy play and backup kicker Matt Ammendola. Three weeks later, Patrick Mahomes was outdueled by Josh Allen in a 24-20 home loss. I'm not sure "force the Chiefs into a backup kicker" or "have Josh Allen" are game plans other teams can emulate.
Instead, I'll head toward the secondary. The Chiefs invested resources up front by signing Carlos Dunlap and using a first-round pick on George Karlaftis. The secondary also got a big free agent addition (Justin Reid) and a first-rounder (Trent McDuffie), but it lost Tyrann Mathieu and Charvarius Ward via free agency.
Teams have been able to move the ball on Kansas City. When the Chris Jones-led pass rush doesn't get home, Steve Spagnuolo's defense allows an 81.6 QBR to opposing passers. That's the worst mark in football. The good news for the Chiefs is that they pressure quarterbacks at the third-highest rate, which has prevented teams from exploiting their secondary. If they do get upset in January, I would expect it to come in a game in which the pass rush has a quiet day.
Team to avoid: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You might remember these two facing off in an important game a couple of years ago! The Bucs are less talented now than they were in Super Bowl LV, and their offensive line is down multiple starters, but Tom Brady's ability to diagnose pressures pre-snap and get the ball out quickly post-snap limits how much tension teams can throw in his direction.
Brady is being pressured a league-low 19.3% of the time, which would make defending him a difficult time for the Chiefs. And while the Chiefs won 41-31 when these teams played in October, it took two fumbles from the Bucs and a dominant offensive performance to get Kansas City over the line. Mahomes and the offense shouldn't fear anybody, but I wouldn't love a rubber match for them against the Bucs.
