Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
If it spreads easier than it's pretty likely to end up dominant. Which isn't to say delta completely disappears.
I'm not out there reading every last story, but I haven't really seen anything that conclusive on whether it's really less deadly or not. Seems like that is probably still in the TBD category.
Usually as viruses mutate they become less deadly. The goal of a virus is to keep infecting new hosts so it can generate more viruses. If they spread too fast or kill too fast then they run out of hosts. [Reply]
So I got my 2nd Moderna dose a couple of weeks ago.
Never did get sick like several people I know - no fever, chills, etc.
However, I had a massive bruise at the injection site and a couple of days after the shot, I had a huge red splotch extending from the site, down my bicep, and into the elbow. Looked like a rash but it didn't hurt or itch. Just looked like a big birthmark. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
If it spreads easier than it's pretty likely to end up dominant. Which isn't to say delta completely disappears.
I'm not out there reading every last story, but I haven't really seen anything that conclusive on whether it's really less deadly or not. Seems like that is probably still in the TBD category.
While you're right that Delta likely won't "completely disappear," if Omicron ends up being more transmissible, it definitely could take over for the most part. Here's a chart that lets you scroll over time to see the various variants, and Delta pretty much eliminated all others over the summer.
I almost feel like the best case would be for it to be far more transmissible but far less virulent. If we can get a mild disease to take over the world, we might finally truly start getting past this thing. [Reply]
Preliminary data on the new strain were revealed tonight in the "main edition" • The good news: the decrease in vaccine effectiveness is slight - and for booster recipients it is effective in both preventing serious illness and preventing infection • However, the risk of recovering in the variant is twice as high as in Delta • All details - and the worrying statistic about the risk of the unvaccinated becoming seriously ill
The data were collected in both South Africa and European countries where verifications were found in the new variant. It should be emphasized that these are preliminary data that the whole world is waiting for, and at this point they become the working assumption. According to these data, the effectiveness of the vaccine (for those who received three doses, ie also the booster), decreases only slightly: 90% protection, compared to 95% protection against the Delta strain. These are impressive and somewhat reassuring figures. The effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing serious illness, for those who have been vaccinated three times, is the same as the effectiveness against the Delta strain - the strain that has been the most dominant in Israel so far
Originally Posted by NotDonger:
Preliminary data on the new strain were revealed tonight in the "main edition" • The good news: the decrease in vaccine effectiveness is slight - and for booster recipients it is effective in both preventing serious illness and preventing infection • However, the risk of recovering in the variant is twice as high as in Delta • All details - and the worrying statistic about the risk of the unvaccinated becoming seriously ill
The data were collected in both South Africa and European countries where verifications were found in the new variant. It should be emphasized that these are preliminary data that the whole world is waiting for, and at this point they become the working assumption. According to these data, the effectiveness of the vaccine (for those who received three doses, ie also the booster), decreases only slightly: 90% protection, compared to 95% protection against the Delta strain. These are impressive and somewhat reassuring figures. The effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing serious illness, for those who have been vaccinated three times, is the same as the effectiveness against the Delta strain - the strain that has been the most dominant in Israel so far
Originally Posted by penguinz:
Usually as viruses mutate they become less deadly. The goal of a virus is to keep infecting new hosts so it can generate more viruses. If they spread too fast or kill too fast then they run out of hosts.
Sure that is the general trend and there is reason for hope. But the death rate isn't so high nor is the death that quick, that a slight change up or down is going to dramatically change how easily it can spread.
So it's more like one of those roll of the dice things. Maybe you have a 70% of things going your way on any given roll, but maybe don't be too surprised when it doesn't.
I no longer remember the exact numbers, but the pathogen behind the black death took generations to become relatively harmless if I understand the story correctly.
And the early reports of the new virus causing mild sickness seems to based largely on a relatively young population in South Africa. Is that surprising?
But again, here's to it being a less serious variation. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jdubya:
Got my 3rd Moderna jab, (second booster) just now. Felt nothing......had my first beer and feel nothing yet. Will keep y'all updated.
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
Sure that is the general trend and there is reason for hope. But the death rate isn't so high nor is the death that quick, that a slight change up or down is going to dramatically change how easily it can spread.
So it's more like one of those roll of the dice things. Maybe you have a 70% of things going your way on any given roll, but maybe don't be too surprised when it doesn't.
I no longer remember the exact numbers, but the pathogen behind the black death took generations to become relatively harmless if I understand the story correctly.
And the early reports of the new virus causing mild sickness seems to based largely on a relatively young population in South Africa. Is that surprising?
But again, here's to it being a less serious variation.
Black Death wasn't a virus, it was bacteria.
Virology 101 is viruses don't want to kill their hosts and tend to get weaker.
This was to be expected. The 4 common circulating coronaviruses probably operated the same way with the last one believed to have arrived late 1800s and is now a common cold. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
Sure that is the general trend and there is reason for hope. But the death rate isn't so high nor is the death that quick, that a slight change up or down is going to dramatically change how easily it can spread.
So it's more like one of those roll of the dice things. Maybe you have a 70% of things going your way on any given roll, but maybe don't be too surprised when it doesn't.
I no longer remember the exact numbers, but the pathogen behind the black death took generations to become relatively harmless if I understand the story correctly.
And the early reports of the new virus causing mild sickness seems to based largely on a relatively young population in South Africa. Is that surprising?
But again, here's to it being a less serious variation.
You are comparing a virus to bacteria. Not remotely the same thing.
Viruses get weaker as they mutate. That is how they survive. [Reply]