Originally Posted by cmd227:
Sleeping on Slim Reaper. Many have learned and will continue to. DeVonta plays much much bigger than he is. Go Birds!
I don't think anybody is saying he isn't really good. It's just that the Bengals WRs are considered the best in the league. Many believe that they have two #1 WRs. Some might even say that about Boyd but I don't agree. Nothing against the Eagles WR corps but, the Bengals group is better. [Reply]
Originally Posted by cmd227:
Sleeping on Slim Reaper. Many have learned and will continue to. DeVonta plays much much bigger than he is. Go Birds!
I don't think anyone is sleeping on Devonta Smith. Just saying he isn't a big, physical mismatch who can win jump balls 1x1 at a high rate (like a Higgins or Chase or AJ Brown). It's one of the things that makes the Bengals so tough to defend, having two of those guys. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Lzen:
I don't think anybody is saying he isn't really good. It's just that the Bengals WRs are considered the best in the league. Many believe that they have two #1 WRs. Some might even say that about Boyd but I don't agree. Nothing against the Eagles WR corps but, the Bengals group is better.
Agree with everything here. When people say the Bengals have 3 #1's, it's comical. Boyd wouldn't be a 1 on the team with the worst WR corps in the league (Bears? Ravens?.....well, maybe the Ravens but they don't really use WR anyway). [Reply]
Originally Posted by cmd227:
You know. I really like y'all over here. Your football knowledge is vast, honest and respectable. You have a great sense of humor amongst each other with some good ball busting along the way. I am glad the Eagles are playing the Chiefs. This has been a fun two weeks and no matter the outcome, we appreciate your kindness to us Eagles fans. Go Birds!
Many times, opposing teams' fans just come here to talk crap. If you come in here and do that immediately then you can expect a lot of it right back at you. But if you come here and act like an adult and respect this place and the people in it, then you will be treated okay. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Why Not?:
No one is sleeping on him. He's a great player. But you'd be crazy not to trade him straight up for Higgins or Chase and the point of the post you responded to was that he's good but he's not those guys. That's accurate.
I would not trade straight up for Tee. He is right there with him.
Originally Posted by Dunerdr:
It's crazy to me that eagles fans are batting .500 on decent posters. Every other fan base comes in here and just goes full reerun.
They lead by talking mad shit and then somehow get "offended" when we tell them to chug anti-freeze.
At this point, I'm convinced they're alt-accounts. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz:
They lead by talking mad shit and then somehow get "offended" when we tell them to chug anti-freeze.
At this point, I'm convinced they're alt-accounts.
And add to that the fact that I think most Bengals fans were overconfident coming into the AFC Championship game. They assumed they would win and, if they had, they would still be here trashing the place. Bills fans were like that to a certain extent but once Mahomes and 13 seconds, they stopped doing that so much. Huh, go figure. :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Lzen:
And add to that the fact that I think most Bengals fans were overconfident coming into the AFC Championship game. They assumed they would win and, if they had, they would still be here trashing the place. Bills fans were like that to a certain extent but once Mahomes and 13 seconds, they stopped doing that so much. Huh, go figure. :-)
The whole NFL trashed the Bengals and their fanbase for talking all that shit. I mean, it was excessive. Hopefully its a humbling experience for them. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Lzen:
There, I just turned your rep green. :-)
Many times, opposing teams' fans just come here to talk crap. If you come in here and do that immediately then you can expect a lot of it right back at you. But if you come here and act like an adult and respect this place and the people in it, then you will be treated okay.
Thanks for repping me green. We have a bad reputation. Some of it is somewhat justified from a few bad apples but most of it is from the media. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz:
The whole NFL trashed the Bengals and their fanbase for talking all that shit. I mean, it was excessive. Hopefully its a humbling experience for them.
Weirdly so. Blowhards got their just desserts. [Reply]
As anyone who peruses the Royals thread knows, Duncan Idaho is a big old stat nerd, and he loves digging in, dusting off his data analysis hat, and seeing what's what.
So I've done that this morning.
The study: How do the Eagles (and Chiefs) 2022 pass rush statistics rate compared to other teams in 2022 and in the 2020, 2021, and 2022 seasons in aggregate?
Finding #1: The Eagles had an outstanding sack/pressure rate in 2022 of 41.7 percent (how many of their team pressures were sacks?), but did not lead the NFL (That would be the New Orleans Saints, who have a good DL and benefited from a schedule with a lot of games against average-bad QBs/offenses on it).
The Eagles' sacks/pressure rate would have led the league by a wide margin in 2020 and 2021, as no other team/unit has been above 40 percent in that period of time.
Interestingly, 8 of the top 10 sack/pressure rate teams from 2020-22 were 2022 squads, and 5 of those were NFC teams.
So what does this tell me? The Eagles are an outlier, with a rate that's in the top 2.5 percent of outcomes. Why?
Schedule is part of it. They played a lot of weak offenses led by average or worse QBs.
Having a "complete" pass rush is part of it, too. Teams that stood out in converting higher percentages of their pressures into sacks tended to have several DL capable of winning (compare 2022 Chiefs to 2020 and 2021, for example. The Chiefs' percentage jumped, with better play at both DE spots).
Finding #2: The Eagles' total number of pressures in 2022 was not an outlier like the sack total was.
Don't get me wrong. The Eagles still had a total number of pressures in the 80th percentile of all teams (82nd, to be exact), which is obviously very good.
But there are two 2022 teams that had more pressures than the Eagles:
Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Eagles converted pressures into sacks at a higher rate than either (41.7 percent for Eagles, 30.9 for Chiefs, 20.8 for Jags).
So when Eagles media people start trying to say the Chiefs/Mahomes have never faced a pass rush that can generate pressure like the Eagles, it's true if you're talking about raw sack totals... and not true if you're talking about pressures on the QB.
The Jaguars in 2022 were more successful at generating pressures than the Eagles, and the 2020 Bucaneers, 2021 Cowboys, 2021 Bills, 2020 Ravens, 2021 Bengals, 2021 Steelers, and 2021 Titans all were, too.
I'll stop there. But I think there is important context lurking under the surface that so many fans and media are just missing/not digging into.
It will be interesting to see if the Eagles high conversion rate of pressures to sacks continues in the Super Bowl. I believe it won't, due to the following factors:
1) The Eagles' conversion rate in 2022 was an outlier, and could be considered fluky/driven by the quality of competition they faced
2) Patrick Mahomes is better at getting the ball out quickly AND escaping pressure than any QB the Eagles have faced this year, even at less than 100 percent.
3) The Chiefs OL is better at pass blocking than any team the Eagles have faced this year, because it's the best pass blocking unit in the NFL. Especially on the interior, where Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith all post elite (top 5) win rates on pass blocks, with Thuney and Creed being leaders in that regard.
If you've made it to the end of this, please accept my thanks and apologies. [Reply]
Originally Posted by cmd227:
You know. I really like y'all over here. Your football knowledge is vast, honest and respectable. You have a great sense of humor amongst each other with some good ball busting along the way. I am glad the Eagles are playing the Chiefs. This has been a fun two weeks and no matter the outcome, we appreciate your kindness to us Eagles fans. Go Birds!
Levelheaded post.. Now.. Know your role and shut yo mouth.. :-)
I went back and added 2018 and 2019 to my data set.
The Eagles' 70 sacks remain the top mark in that five-year period, and their sack/pressure rate becomes even more of an outlier, as the sack total is in the 99th percentile, but the pressure total falls into the 77th percentile.
End summary:
The Eagles' 2022 squad is very special at converting pressures to sacks, doing so at a higher rather than any other defense in the past 5 years.
It is not especially special at generating pressure on the QB. It's good, but not exceptional.
The 49ers team the Chiefs beat in Super Bowl LIV had more pressures on the year, for example. One of 14 teams the Chiefs have played in the past five years who had more pressures of the QB than this year's Eagles team. [Reply]
Originally Posted by cmd227:
Sleeping on Slim Reaper. Many have learned and will continue to. DeVonta plays much much bigger than he is. Go Birds!
Like many others here have already mentioned, I don't believe anyone is sleeping on Smith. The kid is very good. The confidence comes from how well they defended the Bengals receivers with Burrow throwing it. Also if Hurts is still injured in his throwing shoulder he won't be nearly as effective throwing it which will minimize Smith's ability to beat this team. [Reply]
