Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
I think most people are worried the economy will be too hot and inflation might cause significant interference eventually from the Fed. Unless there is a war or new strain of covid that's incredibly deadly, I can't imagine the economy doing poorly.
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Nice buying last hour. Nasdaq and S&P basically flat.
Showing signs of possible bottom before next wave up.
It was a perfect opportunity to purchase more shares but now the prices were going up. I'll see what happens tomorrow. My lumber stock was unaffected and was in the green today. [Reply]
If you check out the AMC options chain there's 126,000 open interest contracts for $40 June 18th Calls. That's the highest price the chart allows. There's a whale out there that knows it's getting ready to pop. They don't make bets like this to lose money. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
I think most people are worried the economy will be too hot and inflation might cause significant interference eventually from the Fed. Unless there is a war or new strain of covid that's incredibly deadly, I can't imagine the economy doing poorly.
There are some data points that go against that position.
Unemployment is the big one. The idea that there is a giant, widespread fucking labor shortage AND high unemployment, well, I don't fucking know what that means. That's just fucking...madness. Nonetheless, unemployment almost universally is an indicator of economic downturn.
It is really, REALLY difficult for the economy to run with high fuel prices. Talk tech all you want, but the simple truth is the geographic spread that dominates the history of the United States still must be overcome for society to operate, including the economy.
Regarding investments, there is some real overvalues of some companies. If there is an short-intermediate term correction, it will have a pretty substantial impact on the stock markets. I mean hell not long ago Musk said Tesla was overvalued at $450.
And of course....inflation.
I don't even know WTF is going on in lumber, but that will undoubtedly move the needle on inflation of various hardgoods, notably homes. Steel, same shit. Apparently rough electrical components have went berzerk. Local coop is trying to build a bin and the electrical components have blown up by (IIRC) 4x. That will move it. Even if it is fairly short lived (it will take awhile to move through the supply chain if there is a short-intermediate term correction).
Supply Chain disruptions for components have already moved other hardgoods and has substantially driven up the prices of common inflation-driving products. These price movements are over a year old and will undoubtedly move the inflation number.
And while they aren't included in formal inflation numbers that will be used to determine interest rates, food and fuel as well as other smaller consumer goods price increases really affect a wide swath of the populations purchasing power.
I'm not saying I know anything, or really have much of an opinion. Really all I know there is a fuckton of volatility in my industry. However, there are definitely bearish counterpoints to bullish arguments. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
I'm not saying I know anything, or really have much of an opinion. Really all I know there is a fuckton of volatility in my industry. However, there are definitely bearish counterpoints to bullish arguments.
Yeah, housing starts and jobs (horrible) had bad beats recently. GDP revisions down. The number of people reporting they couldn't work due to covid dropped from 3.7 million to 2.8. It seems like that's a good sign if it keeps up.
I don't know what'll happen with a lot of the supply/demand imbalances. Like Oil futures going sub-zero I'm sure we'll continue to see interesting stuff. They are a risk to stifling growth at too high of rates.
I guess I only see the economy beating for the next few quarters. I mean, the yoy comps are insanely low. Halfcan was implying a major economic correction. We're going to start doing worse than last year? I can't believe that, we're Jamaal Charles competing in the special olympics right now in yoy comps.
I believe in the US consumer spending. There is supposedly a ton of money trapped in checking/savings accounts. The direct monthly payments for child tax credits will start going out this summer. I can't imagine that won't get spent by a huge chunk of the population.
I find inflation to be the biggest concern. I drove home tonight listening to commercials of companies paying to advertise that they'd give $17 an hour to new entry level warehouse employees. This might be a bias, my worth is mostly in stocks, if the economy grows slower that hasn't worked so bad for me.. less so if inflation forces huge interest rate increases. 40x revs SaaS companies would freefall [Reply]
21 states are going to drop the unemployment pandemic assistance program just for the reason of getting people back to work when there are plenty of jobs out there. The gubment incentivizing people not to go back to work is what the problem is.
Excerpt from article:
"$387. That's how much the average American receives from their state in weekly unemployment payments, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which rises to $687with the federal boost. Based on a 40-hour workweek, that means the average unemployed American is getting the equivalent of $17.17 an hour—more than twice the federal minimum wage."
Originally Posted by neech:
21 states are going to drop the unemployment pandemic assistance program just for the reason of getting people back to work when there are plenty of jobs out there. The gubment incentivizing people not to go back to work is what the problem is.
Excerpt from article:
"$387. That's how much the average American receives from their state in weekly unemployment payments, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which rises to $687with the federal boost. Based on a 40-hour workweek, that means the average unemployed American is getting the equivalent of $17.17 an hour—more than twice the federal minimum wage."
They waited way too long to do this but I'm glad its finally happening. We've raised starting pay at my work 25% and for this area we already paid very well but we still cant get anyone to fill our 5 open positions. [Reply]
philfree 05-20-2021, 09:27 PM
This message has been deleted by philfree.
Reason: may have seemed political
Originally Posted by MTG#10:
They waited way too long to do this but I'm glad its finally happening. We've raised starting pay at my work 25% and for this area we already paid very well but we still cant get anyone to fill our 5 open positions.
About June 12th applications should be picking up for your work. [Reply]
