Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
What do you mean not hospitalized? They are in the hospital and they are counted as Covid if they test +. Have seen numerous confirmations of this.
The only question is % total in each hospital.
If you're coming in for an elective surgery, you have to have a covid test prior to having the surgery. If you're positive, you don't have the surgery and therefor aren't hospitalized.
If you have a car accident and require emergency surgery and test positive, you have to be placed into the covid unit because you are a potential infection source. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
If you're coming in for an elective surgery, you have to have a covid test prior to having the surgery. If you're positive, you don't have the surgery and therefor aren't hospitalized.
If you have a car accident and require emergency surgery and test positive, you have to be placed into the covid unit because you are a potential infection source.
Hmm. I guess it depends who's counting them, right?!
Over the last week, 898 patients at Miami’s public hospitals tested positive for the novel coronavirus, but more than half of them — 471 — were admitted for other reasons, largely to emergency rooms, without typical COVID-19 symptoms.
Public health experts say it’s yet another indicator of increasingly widespread transmission of the virus in Miami-Dade County, as the virus ramps up across the country. Vicky Perez, a nurse and the director of critical care at Jackson North Medical Center, said she’s seen it in growing numbers: Patients who show up for anything from a car accident to abdominal pain are later testing positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Hmm. I guess it depends who's counting them, right?!
Over the last week, 898 patients at Miami’s public hospitals tested positive for the novel coronavirus, but more than half of them — 471 — were admitted for other reasons, largely to emergency rooms, without typical COVID-19 symptoms.
Public health experts say it’s yet another indicator of increasingly widespread transmission of the virus in Miami-Dade County, as the virus ramps up across the country. Vicky Perez, a nurse and the director of critical care at Jackson North Medical Center, said she’s seen it in growing numbers: Patients who show up for anything from a car accident to abdominal pain are later testing positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.
They're later testing positive for it. Ok. Lets reason our way thru this. When are they testing for it? While in the hospital? After?
Do they show symptoms after they test? Are they getting it in the actual hospital? Thats also one week. You stated 50% of the Covid patients in Miami are confirmed asymptomatic and by test only. Is that for the entire period or are you basing this all of this single article? [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
They're later testing positive for it. Ok. Lets reason our way thru this. When are they testing for it? While in the hospital? After?
Do they show symptoms after they test? Are they getting it in the actual hospital? Thats also one week. You stated 50% of the Covid patients in Miami are confirmed asymptomatic and by test only. Is that for the entire period or are you basing this all of this single article?
This is one article but is a summary of all the Miami public hospitals. I have also seen evidence pointing to this in other cities as well. The issue is we only get info like this in trickles and drops.
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
This is one article but is a summary of all the Miami public hospitals. I have also seen evidence pointing to this in other cities as well. The issue is we only get info like this in trickles and drops.
Originally Posted by O.city:
What evidence? Maybe we could see it?
After days of fighting my way up the chain of command, I finally found a responsible hospital administrator willing to speak the truth to me. I will refrain from publishing his name for his own protection. He told me that he has “tons” of asymptomatic patients across his hospital system occupying expensive and badly needed hospital beds who cannot be released to rehab or nursing homes because their PCR tests are still coming back positive. Some for months.
Every doctor in the hospital realizes that these patients are neither sick nor contagious. Every medical expert knows that PCR tests are highly prone to trigger on tiny fragments of residual RNA even when there is no communicable disease present.
Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, recently explained this phenomenon to the New York Times.
“We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.”
But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. Mina said.
The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.
Unfortunately, Cuomo’s executive order prevents these people from being discharged. And they are piling up. This is not good science. It is not even good politics. It is madness.
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
I am not going to spend a long time playing word games with you today.
But the same question that everyone has when looking at the numbers dead counted.
How many from Covid and how many with Covid?
I don't have the answer.
But you start there and see where it goes. Excess death in many places such as Sweden shows almost no impact from this.
In the US we look to have some excess death but again, you compare that to what? Last 4 years average? Take into account population growth?
You do understand that COVID-19 is not listed as the immediate cause of death on certificates of people it killed, right? That doesn't mean that COVID-19 didn't kill them.
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
After days of fighting my way up the chain of command, I finally found a responsible hospital administrator willing to speak the truth to me. I will refrain from publishing his name for his own protection. He told me that he has “tons” of asymptomatic patients across his hospital system occupying expensive and badly needed hospital beds who cannot be released to rehab or nursing homes because their PCR tests are still coming back positive. Some for months.
Every doctor in the hospital realizes that these patients are neither sick nor contagious. Every medical expert knows that PCR tests are highly prone to trigger on tiny fragments of residual RNA even when there is no communicable disease present.
Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, recently explained this phenomenon to the New York Times.
“We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.”
But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. Mina said.
The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.
Unfortunately, Cuomo’s executive order prevents these people from being discharged. And they are piling up. This is not good science. It is not even good politics. It is madness.
Originally Posted by Donger:
You do understand that COVID-19 is not listed as the immediate cause of death on certificates of people it killed, right? That doesn't mean that COVID-19 didn't kill them.
I know all about that. You are correct. But we also know people who are counted as Covid dead because they tested positive on PCR test. Many states have been doing death certificate matching, looking for more to add as Covid casualties. [Reply]
