Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Absent some therapeutic that is effective and available widespread there won’t be an NFL season and not much of an economy over the next 12-18 months. FWIW I think they’ll get a vaccine in less than 18 months, but all the happy talk about this being gone in weeks seems highly unlikely.
Yeah we still need some kind of miracle.
A few causes for potential optimism - the report doesn't consider a summer pause - which often happens with these kinds of viruses. The summer killed SARS. The Spanish Flu paused then mutated and came back much worse.
Also it doesn't really get into improved suppression strategies. It kind of assumes the same spread as in the beginning when we knew much less and had less examples of what works (S. Korea, Japan, China).
From everything I've been reading - the countries where everyone wears a mask (not just symptomatic people) are doing a lot better. China requires masks. Czechoslovakia is requiring them. In Japan, which seems to be doing inexplicably well right now, everyone is wearing them. But you also have to keep infected people who live in large households from infecting everyone in the house - that's been by far the biggest source of spread. Masks don't work for that - only isolation.
IMO we should try a combination of masks, all the other social distancing stuff, and pervasive testing (then don't send positives home to infect their households). Maybe we can keep the R number below 1 w/o full lock down if we do that.
Just my personal guess but I could see restaurants opening back up with lots of room between patrons - no more of those hipster places where you're like 6" from the table next to you. Bars however may have to stay closed for the duration. Drunks hanging out for 6 hours sharing the same space getting progressively more touchy feely. Disaster.
Report from Japan today:
Originally Posted by :
Made a trip today to a downtown area of Western Japan. While the rest of the world is barricaded inside their homes, economies ground to a halt, panic level Code Red, here in Japan it is literally business as usual.
If you were suddenly dropped into the middle of downtown Tokyo, there would be no hint that a global crisis was underway.
Japan has either figured this virus-containment thing out WITHOUT upsetting its economy or even the flow of daily life, or it is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.
I really hope a bunch of smart people are studying Japan right now. [Reply]
They have shown that the virus is still detectable on a surface after some length of time but that doesn't necessarily mean it is that likely of a transmission route. Like most things, they don't know yet.
So this approach is not a guarantee but it probably helps.
The danger from a surface has to drop with time. I would think there would be less contagion at 6:00am than 6:00pm. And then just limiting the number of shoppers.
But sure, store workers could still transmit it. [Reply]
this gym in st joseph posted that "WE ARE FIGHTING THE VIRUS HEAD ON" and posted pictures of 100 together for photo's fuck we are dumb. So boastful about being dumb as well. [Reply]
We may come out of this so much healthier w/o bars, restaurants and take out for a while. I'm already losing weight. It's much easier to have willpower only once when you go to the store vs. every lunch and dinner (potentially). [Reply]
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
This was a great read. Thanks for posting.
Pretty much lays out what we're in for the next 18 months - cycles of lock down, then open up, then lock down again when cases spike. We'll see how it goes in China and Italy whenever they open back up.
Great read? That was horrible. I hope it's not true. 4 million US deaths if we went on as normal and it's going to just keep coming back everytime we reemerge from hiding for any period? yuck
If we have to keep locking down over and over were fucked. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage:
Great read? That was horrible. I hope it's not true. 4 million US deaths if we went on as normal and it's going to just keep coming back everytime we reemerge from hiding for any period? yuck
If we have to keep locking down over and over were fucked.
Sorry if repost, but I didn’t see it talked about earlier in this thread. Looks like the 4/15 tax deadline is being extended 90 days. For those that owe money each year, this will give you a temporary financial break. [Reply]
Originally Posted by lewdog:
I hope none of you know someone fighting cancer right now, with many people continuing to not take social distancing seriously.
Went to the store early hoping some stuff might be restocked. Not. Almost no ground beef, no chicken, very little bread. Pre-cooked sausages like hot dogs were gone. Still had plenty of steaks and pork chops, but they seemed really expensive. "Limit One" signs everywhere, although that may be a day late and a dollar short. Fresh produce fairly picked over, but not as bad as the others. And zero toilet paper - didn't need any, but I checked the aisle just to see.
Still plenty of canned goods, though, and dairy products. I guess that's good.
The store wasn't too crowded, but there were still a lot of people there for 6:00 a.m. on a Wednesday.
This shit is surreal.
At least gas is cheap. Even will all the Illinois taxes, it's only around $2.15. Of course that's not really a good thing.
Coronavirus came into the swine industry several years back. Just as the H1N1 it sweeps through the herd and takes its toll and then stabilizes. Vaccines brought it under control.
Same thing will happen to the human population. [Reply]
