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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>Hypothetical: Retaining Picks
kccrow 07:41 PM 10-24-2021
Let's pretend Veach wasn't aggressive and did something abnormal. Trying to be realistic with draft picks and not chase the absolute best option, here's a what-if keeping FA signings and other draft picks intact (if trades don't impact):

2018 - Traded 2 1's for Frank Clark and drafted Speaks in 2. Splash signings of WR Sammy Watkins and LB Anthony Hitchens. Traded Peters that year.

Instead keeps ER Justin Houston, takes LB Rashaan Evans in 1 and FS Jessie Bates in 2.

2019 - Veach traded 1 for Frank Clark in 2018 and drafted Hardman and Thornhill in 2. Splash signing of SS Tyrann Mathieu.

Instead takes OC Elgton Jenkins (to replace Morse) in 1 and stays put and takes WR DK Metcalf and RB David Montgomery (to replace Hunt) in 2.

2020 - Drafted RB Clyde Edwards-Helair in 1 and LB Willie Gay in 2. No splash signing, re-signed DT Chris Jones.

Instead takes CB Jaylon Johnson in 1 and LB Logan Wilson in 2.

2021 - Veach traded 1 for Orlando Brown Jr and a 2, drafted LB Nick Bolton and OC Creed Humphrey in 2. Splash signing of LG Joe Thuney.

If Veach wasn't completely fixated on the OL, he has the cap and the vision to go out and get a Trey Hendrickson or Matt Judon at DE (because he didn't kill his cap with Clark). Let's have him make another splash and sign Trey Hendrickson.

Instead takes OT Teven Jenkins in 1 and DT Alim McNeill in 2. Also, retain 3rd and 4th round picks to select DE Ronnie Perkins and OT Royce Newman.

Let's take a look at where the roster would be right now:

QB P. Mahomes, C. Henne
RB D. Montgomery, D. Williams, J. McKinnon, D. Gore
FB M. Burton
WR T. Hill, D. Metcalf, J. Gordon, D. Robinson, B. Pringle, M. Kemp
TE T. Kelce, N. Gray, B. Bell
OT L. Niang, T. Jenkins, M. Remmers, P. Tega-Wanogho
OG J. Thuney, T. Smith, L. Duvernay-Tardif, N. Allegretti, R. Newman
OC E. Jenkins, A. Blythe

DE T. Hendrickson, M. Danna, R. Perkins, A. Okafor, J. Kaindoh
DT C. Jones, D. Nnadi, A. McNeill, K. Saunders, T. Wharton, J. Reed
LB R. Evans, A. Hitchens, L. Wilson, B. Niemann, D. O'Daniel, D. Harris
CB C. Ward, J. Johnson, L. Sneed, R. Fenton, D. Baker, M. Hughes
DB T. Mathieu, J. Bates, A. Watts, D. Sorensen

Maybe you sub out some draft picks for other guys, but the point is that if Veach would be less aggressive he'd probably have a much more complete roster than he has developed. You look at just taking the guys that come to you and you can put together something pretty good.

Some guys have jumped for joy when the Chiefs have traded away multiple picks for a player, and then also turn around and start handing out contracts. Some of us have kind of sat back and questioned that a bit (and some of you ALOT). I think the questioning deserves some merit.

I think it's time for Veach to start building the right way. Keep the picks and take guys that fit what you need. Oh, and a few less complete rolls of the dice. Sometimes you gotta take the production.
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Chris Meck 07:59 AM 10-25-2021
We went to two straight SB's and won one of them.

Second guessing all of this now is beyond pointless.

Where do we go from here? Now that's a useful and interesting discussion.
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ntexascardfan 09:41 AM 10-25-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
We went to two straight SB's and won one of them.

Second guessing all of this now is beyond pointless.

Where do we go from here? Now that's a useful and interesting discussion.
I don't think it's pointless at all. Looking back at how we've operated is a good way to improve efficiency and performance going forward.

One thing I think about is the stories about how ruthless New England was in letting stars walk. They had a couple constants and a lot of revolving doors. While a lot of folks attribute that to making the most out of the salary cap, I think a lot of it also has to do with the trappings of human behavior. Players simply aren't as motivated to climb Mt. Everest again after summitting it the first time.

Veach sold out to maximize a window of opportunity. Now it's time to shift gears and philosophy to extend the run and build a dynasty. That means the way we think about roster construction needs to change.

Looking back to see how we got here is how you build the foundation for making the right changes to extend the run.
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kccrow 05:04 PM 10-25-2021
ntexascardfan hit where I was wanting this conversation to go. It isn't as much about going back and saying "what if" as it is about looking at how the roster was constructed and how that imploded quickly and then applying that what if to come to a realization that there is another way that may be equally or more effective.
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Chris Meck 06:35 PM 10-25-2021
alright. I'm interested in what happens next very much. I'll bite.

As I've already alluded to, I think there's a lot to learn from Belichick about how to sustain championship success.

No more big contracts, especially on defense. No more trading high draft picks to have to pay guys premium money. You can get TWO good, quality but unspectacular DE's for what we pay Clark to do nothing. Jones disappears for long stretches of the season. I'm not paying him anymore either, and I'd trade him if anyone would take his contract. It's too much money for parttime production. HB is a unique player, but not at what he wants to be paid, plus he's getting older. You could get a plus S and a plus LB for that money. Let's get DEEP with solid players on defense. I'd much rather have solid, dependable guys all over than a couple of stars that may or may not show up alongside Niemanns and Sorensens.

You let them all walk when they get expensive, other than Mahomes. Reek I'd extend once more; Kelce has maybe a couple of years left at the top.

We need to draft better; this year is Veach's best draft by far it would appear. You'll need to draft and develop your stars, no more signing them for big money in FA.

That's my plan. What's your plan?
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kccrow 07:04 PM 10-25-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
alright. I'm interested in what happens next very much. I'll bite.

As I've already alluded to, I think there's a lot to learn from Belichick about how to sustain championship success.

No more big contracts, especially on defense. No more trading high draft picks to have to pay guys premium money. You can get TWO good, quality but unspectacular DE's for what we pay Clark to do nothing. Jones disappears for long stretches of the season. I'm not paying him anymore either, and I'd trade him if anyone would take his contract. It's too much money for parttime production. HB is a unique player, but not at what he wants to be paid, plus he's getting older. You could get a plus S and a plus LB for that money. Let's get DEEP with solid players on defense. I'd much rather have solid, dependable guys all over than a couple of stars that may or may not show up alongside Niemanns and Sorensens.

You let them all walk when they get expensive, other than Mahomes. Reek I'd extend once more; Kelce has maybe a couple of years left at the top.

We need to draft better; this year is Veach's best draft by far it would appear. You'll need to draft and develop your stars, no more signing them for big money in FA.

That's my plan. What's your plan?
Much in agreement this.

Bill Belichick the GM is the guy I really love in the NFL.

I think you hit one thing I love about Belichik is his ability to separate personal from business, to roll players into picks year after year by trade and by letting players walk and picking up comp picks. The other is buying low. Let's trade a guy for a 4th and then trade away a 6th for another guy.

He also didn't particularly put a premium on 1st round picks, especially picking low in the round. He traded out of the 1st alot and picked up extra 2nd or 3rd round picks. I'm not advocating that be an all-the-time strategy because you need to find some aces, especially at the pillar positions. That said, you can see this year the value of a couple of 2nd round picks to fill non-pillar positions.

Do you need LT, CB, DE? Take one in the 1st and even move up some to get the right guy. You need OG, LB, RB, S? Trade down into the 2nd and pick up another high-value pick. These types of moves are what kept NE dominant for so long.

They kept the roster churning with alot of 2nd and 3rd round players and bought low in pick for player trades on some what-ifs with 6th's and 7ths and snagged a few diamonds in the process.

As for paying guys, yeah I agree 110% you can't go out and trade premium picks AND sign a guy to a market contract. One thing for sure that many good teams have had is they pay the right guys. Bill has paid for pillar positions, but especially DBs. I think some balance there helps. Pay your LT, pay a stud CB, pay one DE. Let the rest fall where it may and churn.

Committing astronomical money to a LG (for as great as Thuney is) and to a DT (for as good as Jones decides he wants to be) were really fools errands in my mind in terms of how to assemble a roster. Just about any draft could net you quality starters at both positions fairly easily. Maybe not "all world," but quality. It's far harder to net a high-quality LT, CB, or DE and that's why they make the big money and they get taken in the top 2/3 of the 1st. Likening to my example, is it better money to buy Trey Hendrickson and draft a LG or buy a LG and then not be in position to get a DE in the draft?
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Chris Meck 07:34 PM 10-25-2021
Originally Posted by kccrow:
Much in agreement this.

Bill Belichick the GM is the guy I really love in the NFL.

I think you hit one thing I love about Belichik is his ability to separate personal from business, to roll players into picks year after year by trade and by letting players walk and picking up comp picks. The other is buying low. Let's trade a guy for a 4th and then trade away a 6th for another guy.

He also didn't particularly put a premium on 1st round picks, especially picking low in the round. He traded out of the 1st alot and picked up extra 2nd or 3rd round picks. I'm not advocating that be an all-the-time strategy because you need to find some aces, especially at the pillar positions. That said, you can see this year the value of a couple of 2nd round picks to fill non-pillar positions.

Do you need LT, CB, DE? Take one in the 1st and even move up some to get the right guy. You need OG, LB, RB, S? Trade down into the 2nd and pick up another high-value pick. These types of moves are what kept NE dominant for so long.

They kept the roster churning with alot of 2nd and 3rd round players and bought low in pick for player trades on some what-ifs with 6th's and 7ths and snagged a few diamonds in the process.

As for paying guys, yeah I agree 110% you can't go out and trade premium picks AND sign a guy to a market contract. One thing for sure that many good teams have had is they pay the right guys. Bill has paid for pillar positions, but especially DBs. I think some balance there helps. Pay your LT, pay a stud CB, pay one DE. Let the rest fall where it may and churn.

Committing astronomical money to a LG (for as great as Thuney is) and to a DT (for as good as Jones decides he wants to be) were really fools errands in my mind in terms of how to assemble a roster. Just about any draft could net you quality starters at both positions fairly easily. Maybe not "all world," but quality. It's far harder to net a high-quality LT, CB, or DE and that's why they make the big money and they get taken in the top 2/3 of the 1st. Likening to my example, is it better money to buy Trey Hendrickson and draft a LG or buy a LG and then not be in position to get a DE in the draft?
Veach sold out to get them over the hump. It sucks now, but it sure was fun for those 2 seasons.

Now doing stuff to get a good team over the hump is one thing; constructing a team to now contend every year is another.

In the case of Thuney I don't mind; we drafted a stud C and RG. Having a very good veteran in that mix is good. Brown appears to have been a bad decision and I don't have much hope that he's suddenly going to develop any lateral quickness. I expect that he will not be tagged or re-signed. I wouldn't. Maybe someone like Tennessee would like him Tag and trade could work. He'd fit there, and they have OT issues.

Sure wish we'd have got JJ Watt. I think the D-line attitude would've been different.
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Buehler445 09:20 PM 10-25-2021
A couple things here.

1. Achieving success by accumulating draft picks and achieving success on the personnel side in the mold of Belichick are mutually exclusive. Belichick has had some horrible drafts. Truly horrible. Impressively horrible even.

2. I'm a production per unit salary cap. Low cost rookie contracts are a good way to get there. Belichick achieved that by coaching up scrubs. I mean, that and falling assbackward into an elite QB, but that aside. Belichick took low end guys and made them play assignment sound football and made them really outperform their contracts. Essentially he achieved value by coaching dudes up.

3. I don't really care how it happens, but we have to achieve better production with our salary cap dollars. Jones, Clark, Reed, Brown, shitting the bed is what murders teams - us specifically. I don't mind paying dudes of that caliber, but they have to perform. A bunch of draft picks is the same concept. Squirmin Herman Motherfucking Sack of Cunt Edwards taught us that. Going young for the sake of change isn't good if you draft ass on a stick.

The problem we face is our struggles aren't strictly on Veach. I'll be hard pressed to believe the problems in the various rooms aren't coaching and/or leadership. And that's problematic, because coaching reports to Hunt not Veach. Leadership is also problematic because it was good in 18, 19, and 20, but the same dudes leadership aren't good in 21? That's a difficult thing to quantify and as a result manage/optimize.

I mean, nobody wants to lock themselves in the nerdery, make a spreadsheet assessing values to all available personnel, email that bitch to Veach and solve all of our problems more than me, but it isn't that simple.

But yeah, I'm all about improving our production per unit salary cap by ever means available, including cheating the salary cap, which I've been advocating since they started talking about extending Mahomes.
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Chris Meck 05:02 PM 10-26-2021
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
A couple things here.

1. Achieving success by accumulating draft picks and achieving success on the personnel side in the mold of Belichick are mutually exclusive. Belichick has had some horrible drafts. Truly horrible. Impressively horrible even.

2. I'm a production per unit salary cap. Low cost rookie contracts are a good way to get there. Belichick achieved that by coaching up scrubs. I mean, that and falling assbackward into an elite QB, but that aside. Belichick took low end guys and made them play assignment sound football and made them really outperform their contracts. Essentially he achieved value by coaching dudes up.

3. I don't really care how it happens, but we have to achieve better production with our salary cap dollars. Jones, Clark, Reed, Brown, shitting the bed is what murders teams - us specifically. I don't mind paying dudes of that caliber, but they have to perform. A bunch of draft picks is the same concept. Squirmin Herman Mother****ing Sack of **** Edwards taught us that. Going young for the sake of change isn't good if you draft ass on a stick.

The problem we face is our struggles aren't strictly on Veach. I'll be hard pressed to believe the problems in the various rooms aren't coaching and/or leadership. And that's problematic, because coaching reports to Hunt not Veach. Leadership is also problematic because it was good in 18, 19, and 20, but the same dudes leadership aren't good in 21? That's a difficult thing to quantify and as a result manage/optimize.

I mean, nobody wants to lock themselves in the nerdery, make a spreadsheet assessing values to all available personnel, email that bitch to Veach and solve all of our problems more than me, but it isn't that simple.

But yeah, I'm all about improving our production per unit salary cap by ever means available, including cheating the salary cap, which I've been advocating since they started talking about extending Mahomes.
I don't disagree with any of that.

I think that defense, while still having an X's and O's foundation, is still a lot about attitude and effort. Especially in your front seven. Even more especially with a 4 man line. We've been SO burned by big contracts and immediate drop-off in level of play time and time again. Maybe that's not fair, but it IS what has happened, over and over.

When I talk about Belichick, I'm talking about how he just built solid defenses; not with huge stars in their prime (unless they were drafted there) but with decent, solid, fundamentally sound players. He mixed those with some over-the-hill vets chasing a ring that could still play specific roles like Seau, or Harrison. Of the stars they drafted (like Seymour) they let walk when the price got too high. But the thing is-they were fundamentally sound across the board.

when you spend big money on a free agent, it means you have less to spend on the rest of the guys; and we've got a ton tied up in 3 or 4 guys on that side of the ball which is not great but what's really bad is how poorly they're ALL playing. And when you look at the tape, they're giving really poor effort. They're often IN position to make a play and they just don't even look like they're trying.

Maybe Bill's thought is that guys get complacent with championships and big paydays. Ship them off and restock constantly and you've always got guys who are hungry for THEIR piece of the glory.

But yeah, of course, you always need to draft well, and you need your free agents to play up to their contracts.
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Buehler445 06:48 PM 10-26-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I don't disagree with any of that.

I think that defense, while still having an X's and O's foundation, is still a lot about attitude and effort. Especially in your front seven. Even more especially with a 4 man line. We've been SO burned by big contracts and immediate drop-off in level of play time and time again. Maybe that's not fair, but it IS what has happened, over and over.

When I talk about Belichick, I'm talking about how he just built solid defenses; not with huge stars in their prime (unless they were drafted there) but with decent, solid, fundamentally sound players. He mixed those with some over-the-hill vets chasing a ring that could still play specific roles like Seau, or Harrison. Of the stars they drafted (like Seymour) they let walk when the price got too high. But the thing is-they were fundamentally sound across the board.

when you spend big money on a free agent, it means you have less to spend on the rest of the guys; and we've got a ton tied up in 3 or 4 guys on that side of the ball which is not great but what's really bad is how poorly they're ALL playing. And when you look at the tape, they're giving really poor effort. They're often IN position to make a play and they just don't even look like they're trying.

Maybe Bill's thought is that guys get complacent with championships and big paydays. Ship them off and restock constantly and you've always got guys who are hungry for THEIR piece of the glory.

But yeah, of course, you always need to draft well, and you need your free agents to play up to their contracts.
The problem with trying to emulate Belichick is that his deal is all coaching - and maybe cheating, but itís hard to do what heís done because nobody can coach like him.

And it may not be him. It may have been all Brady. They look pretty mediocre now.
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tredadda 07:47 PM 10-29-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
alright. I'm interested in what happens next very much. I'll bite.

As I've already alluded to, I think there's a lot to learn from Belichick about how to sustain championship success.

No more big contracts, especially on defense. No more trading high draft picks to have to pay guys premium money. You can get TWO good, quality but unspectacular DE's for what we pay Clark to do nothing. Jones disappears for long stretches of the season. I'm not paying him anymore either, and I'd trade him if anyone would take his contract. It's too much money for parttime production. HB is a unique player, but not at what he wants to be paid, plus he's getting older. You could get a plus S and a plus LB for that money. Let's get DEEP with solid players on defense. I'd much rather have solid, dependable guys all over than a couple of stars that may or may not show up alongside Niemanns and Sorensens.

You let them all walk when they get expensive, other than Mahomes. Reek I'd extend once more; Kelce has maybe a couple of years left at the top.

We need to draft better; this year is Veach's best draft by far it would appear. You'll need to draft and develop your stars, no more signing them for big money in FA.

That's my plan. What's your plan?
Only issue with the bolded part is that Belichick can get away with it because he is one of the most brilliant defensive minds of all time. He can make average defenders look far better than they really are (Flowers, Collins to name a couple). Unless we get a defensive mind like that, his strategy of defense might not work so well for us.
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Chris Meck 04:46 AM 10-30-2021
Originally Posted by tredadda:
Only issue with the bolded part is that Belichick can get away with it because he is one of the most brilliant defensive minds of all time. He can make average defenders look far better than they really are (Flowers, Collins to name a couple). Unless we get a defensive mind like that, his strategy of defense might not work so well for us.
Ok, so I would not argue that Bill isn't the GOAT coach, because he is.

But what is it that makes him such a defensive genius? Because to my observation, he's not particularly innovative. There are no like...schemes nobody's seen before. There aren't particularly exotic blitz packages, there aren't cover packages that are unique.

It's accountability. Like...that's his whole fucking thing. Every player has his role, and is accountable to execute it. That's it. That's the whole thing. And if you don't, you're gone. And if you do, and you get expensive, you're gone. And if you get complacent or too comfortable, you're gone. Period.

I do think it was pretty brilliant years ago when he switched to the 3-4 mostly because nobody else but Pittsburgh was using it at that time, and so those front 7 types were undervalued and easier to find. Then when half the league went to it they weren't anymore so he switched back.

I think his 'genius' comes down to being ruthlessly practical and holding everyone absolutely accountable. That's it.
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Buehler445 03:46 PM 10-30-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Ok, so I would not argue that Bill isn't the GOAT coach, because he is.

But what is it that makes him such a defensive genius? Because to my observation, he's not particularly innovative. There are no like...schemes nobody's seen before. There aren't particularly exotic blitz packages, there aren't cover packages that are unique.

It's accountability. Like...that's his whole fucking thing. Every player has his role, and is accountable to execute it. That's it. That's the whole thing. And if you don't, you're gone. And if you do, and you get expensive, you're gone. And if you get complacent or too comfortable, you're gone. Period.

I do think it was pretty brilliant years ago when he switched to the 3-4 mostly because nobody else but Pittsburgh was using it at that time, and so those front 7 types were undervalued and easier to find. Then when half the league went to it they weren't anymore so he switched back.

I think his 'genius' comes down to being ruthlessly practical and holding everyone absolutely accountable. That's it.

Well, you know, that and the cheating.

But he is also pretty innovative. He's willing to shitcan an entire system if the gameplan dictates it. Plus, that deal in the AFCCG in 18 where the DL all stunted to the outside, nobody had seen that.

But yeah, it's largely his approach. But the cheating definitely helps.
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Stryker 05:14 PM 10-30-2021
I am LOVING ALL of your collective thoughts - makes complete sense and I truly think it IS the answer to our woe's. Great brain trust guy's! :-):-)
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Fansy the Famous Bard 08:32 AM 11-01-2021
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Ok, so I would not argue that Bill isn't the GOAT coach, because he is.

But what is it that makes him such a defensive genius? Because to my observation, he's not particularly innovative. There are no like...schemes nobody's seen before. There aren't particularly exotic blitz packages, there aren't cover packages that are unique.

It's accountability. Like...that's his whole fucking thing. Every player has his role, and is accountable to execute it. That's it. That's the whole thing. And if you don't, you're gone. And if you do, and you get expensive, you're gone. And if you get complacent or too comfortable, you're gone. Period.


I do think it was pretty brilliant years ago when he switched to the 3-4 mostly because nobody else but Pittsburgh was using it at that time, and so those front 7 types were undervalued and easier to find. Then when half the league went to it they weren't anymore so he switched back.

I think his 'genius' comes down to being ruthlessly practical and holding everyone absolutely accountable. That's it.
This line of thinking will never be achievable until Reid retires. He's waaaay too loyal on the personal side.
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