Chiefs How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed? - Page 26

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I'm referring to Football Outsiders. That place has usually been rock solid with these types of rankings because they are not as subjective.

Does FO have New England more than twice as likely to win it all as everybody else? Because that's absurd.
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Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Does FO have New England more than twice as likely to win it all as everybody else? Because that's absurd.

Yes. If you don't like math take it up with the universe. :-)
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I expect NE to lose to Indy.
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Originally Posted by wachashi:
The pure math systems really like the Patriots as well. DVOA has NE as the #11 offense, the #2 defense, and the #4 special teams, good for #2 overall on the year.

Looking at the last 10 games, the Patriots are far and away the best team using DVOA.

Not saying I agree that's the case in reality, but the numbers like the Pats, especially right now.

For sure, the numbers should favor them, especially DVOA.

That being said, does that give them more than double the chance of winning a championship as the Packers, Cards, Chiefs, Ravens, or any other team out there?

Fuck no. That's just dumb.
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Yes. If you don't like math take it up with the universe. :-)

There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.
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Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
I expect NE to lose to Indy.

And then Indy will get a 35% chance to win it all. :-)
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NE is a good story for the media but I'm not buying it.
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Originally Posted by htismaqe:
And then Indy will get a 35% chance to win it all. :-)

As I said earlier, Indy is a far scarier add if they get in then NE.
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Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
As I said earlier, Indy is a far scarier add if they get in then NE.

They still have Carson Wentz at QB. You never know which guy is going to show up any given week. Their running game is formidable but that alone isn't going to propel them to a SB anymore than it will NE.
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Originally Posted by htismaqe:
There's things the "math" doesn't take into account. Like the fact that the Patriots have a rookie QB who has never taken a snap in the NFL playoffs.

I think it does, though. Mac is 15th in DYAR and DVOA for QBs.

That means the rest of the team is so strong they can overcome a mediocre QB.
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Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I think it does, though. Mac is 15th in DYAR and DVOA for QBs.

That means the rest of the team is so strong they can overcome a mediocre QB.

Possibly but I have to see it happen first before I'm gonna crown him. The playoffs are an entirely different animal and running game + defense has definite shortcomings, as Chiefs fans well know.
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Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
I expect NE to lose to Indy.

And Buffalo the second time they play. I fully expected them and Buffalo to split their games.
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A strong team with a QB that has to be carried by said team.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but I do believe I've watched that movie before.

Didn't care for the end.
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I mean part of the reason Jones is sitting at about the league average in terms of analytics is because he hasn't turned the ball over a lot, which stands to reason because he hasn't been given a ton of opportunities to do so.

That is likely to change in the playoffs, when they'll have to be more diversified on offense, thus increasing his chances of making a rookie mistake or two.
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Originally Posted by comochiefsfan:
Jones won't beat Mahomes. But Belichick might.

No he won't. He never has. The two times KC lost to NE in the Mahomes era was because the KC defense played like garbage. Belichick has never been able to shut down Mahomes for an entire game.
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