Those stats just seem faulty/not team specific especially the San Francisco game even though San Francisco had a very good defense, Chiefs still had explosive offense and turnovers by San Francisco always a possibility.

Against Bills given how good Chiefs offense was and how gassed Bills defense was with 13 seconds left, in game win percentage should probably only gone down to at worst 7-8%. Bills played those two last plays before FG horribly but coaching mistakes are always a possibility. But even with good coaching by Bills, Chiefs still had 2 plays to get into FG range and could have still made it.

I'd estimate 22% chance at getting into FG range given Chiefs had plenty of timeouts. (Once Chiefs had ball at 25 yard line, I'd estimate they had more than a 22% chance to get in range of a 62 yard or less FG but you don't know if Bills kicker does a long kickoff to the 5 yard line kind of really messing with Chiefs by taking time off clock on return.
So, lets say 75% shot at making the FG...obviously changes based upon distance. 55% shot at winning in OT if Chiefs hit a FG which changes based upon coin flip which Chiefs won. But also slight chance of winning in regulation on blown coverage.

And even under the scenario where Mahomes just gets 10-12 yards on one of the two plays the Chiefs had time to run, he would still have had the arm strength to throw a hail mary into the end zone to win the game outright without the need for overtime. Now I don't think Chiefs have the best Hail Mary receivers but Reid may be able to design something up to utilize KC's speed at wideout. I would give that hail mary pass alone a 6-7% chance of success via either catch of pass interference. A quick search says 9% of Haily Mary's have succeeded in the NFL...that seems high so I estimated lower there especially since Chiefs best receivers are not tall.
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^ I can only assume "in-game" excludes OT. Which is definitely weird.

But I don't think this game even factors in that, as the Bills' highest win percentage was 93%.

So IDK what the 3 wins are, or why there aren't 2 losses.
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Tampa Bay SB it had to dip below 5% when Bucs won 31-9. Patriots game close enough that even when Patriots had the ball close to the end zone in OT, it did seem reasonable to give Chiefs higher than 5% odds of winning.

If Chiefs hold Patriots to FG, they can obviously score a TD and win it or a FG to tie it.
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The Bills' highest win percentage was 96.3%
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I almost think they must've f'd it up. There's just no way the Chiefs had a 5% win prob in any other game.

Colts, Titans, 9ers, Browns, Bills AFCCG, Steelers. No way any of those games.

I only see 1 win w/ Houston, and should be 2 losses. Both for sure under 5%, unless again it doesn't include OT, which is ridiculous since they still run their model in OT. Pats went to 99.7% or something in OT.
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The end of the stat mentions "since 2018"... I assume they are using 2019 - today as the sample size

2019 - Houston / SF Wins after being sub 5% win prob
2020 - SB Loss... by default win probability dips below 5% at some point in a loss
2021 - Bills game

3-1 vs the rest of the league at 1 win...
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There aren't 2 losses since until Chiefs lost to the patriots on that final play, the odds of Chiefs winning were higher than 5%. Make sense? The odds on that game probably went from like 8% chance Chiefs win to 0% chance. It wasn't like Patriots had the ball on the 1 foot line on first down.

Highest win percentage in Chiefs-Bills game at 93% does sound more reasonable than 95%. If I was setting odds in Vegas that is what I would have put it at before Bills kicked off with 13 seconds left.
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These commentators, especially ESPN, are just idiots that are doubling down on being wrong. Josh had a great game but they're not taking into account the defense Patrick went up against. Until Allen does something of substance, he's not Patrick's equal.
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Again, at the :13 mark, the Chiefs win percentage was 3.7%
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Makes sense but it's not true. The Pats were at 99.7% with the ball at the KC 2-yard line on 2nd down.

Someone else posted 96.3% which I've now seen, but the weird thing is you can't find that anywhere in the actual thing on the gamecast. Even with zooming in a ton. Or if you can, it's NOT easy. I wonder what exact point 96.3% was. Presumably right before they kicked off.
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That makes sense, so the Pats game is just excluded, but they should've just said that.

So who is the third WIN?

Texans - 1-0
Bills - 2-0
Bucs - 2-1
???
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Ah yeah, since 2019 has to be the confusing wordplay here. They must mean since the 2019 season.
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It's the 49ers. I just checked ESPN's gamecast. Tardiff's False Start before WASP moved the 49ers probability up to 95.3%.
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Good call. I guess in hindsight I overlooked how grim it was.

(Literally no pun was intended when I wrote that. But as soon as I saw what I'd written...:-))
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I'm sure it's been discussed but this is as good a place as any without starting a thread about it. Earlier in the season, Mahomes' passes were not always accurate. And some of those inaccurate passes may have been responsible for some of those interceptions. That is no longer a concern. I think there are multiple factors at play for why his pass accuracy has improved: he's gotten comfortable with his offensive line, he's learned to beat the 2 deep shell defense, his foot seems to be completely healed, and he trusts his receivers to not drop passes or fumble. All that nonsense earlier in the season about whether Mahomes was done was just that, nonsense. Man, we are so lucky to have this guy. :-)
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