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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:23 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Because it shows what can happen with overshot and no precautions in place and when hospital capacity is stretched or when nursing homes get hit.

Nursing homes are getting swamped here in Mo and with as much community spread as we have, I don't think you can do much to protect them.

I would favor a strategy that protects nursing homes without killing people under 70 years old who according to Ioannidis have a .05 IFR globally.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:24 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yup, they didn't have to. Their crappy model wasn't a black box afterall.


Matt Ridley
@mattwridley
·
Jun 3
Uppsala University took the Imperial College model (or one of them) and adapted it to Sweden, and forecasted 90,000 deaths in Sweden by the end of May if there was no lockdown and 40,000 if there was.

In fact, there have only been 4,350 deaths in Sweden.

'Uppsala University took the Imperial College model – or one of them – and adapted it to Sweden and forecasted deaths in Sweden of over 90,000 by the end of May if there was no lockdown and 40,000 if a full lockdown was inforced. In fact, there have only been 4,350 deaths in Sweden until the end of May. This does seem to be a huge discrepancy and suggests there was something wrong with the model...'
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...be-replicated-
[Reply]
dirk digler 09:27 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
That was my point. Who cares about IFR in a one small area? The question is what is the best estimate of ifr globally and at a national level.

The Covid Doomsday people I see on Twitter are still stuck on failed models from 8 months ago.
This study was about seroprevalence not IFR. Also NYC was the epicenter of covid here in the US.

Originally Posted by :
Of note, the seroprevalence in the RC group (as well as the UC group in the end of May, post peak) falls significantly below the threshold for potential community immunity, which has been estimated by one study to require at least a seropositivity rate of 67% for SARS-CoV-2.4Based on the population of NYC (8.4 million), we estimate that by the week ending May 24, approximately 1,7 million individuals had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Taking into account the cumulative deaths in the city by May 19 (16,674), this suggests a preliminary IFR of 0.97% (with the assumption that both seroconversion and death occur with similar delays). This is in stark contrast to the IFR of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic which was estimated to be 0.01%-0.001%.

[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:29 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
This study was about seroprevalence not IFR. Also NYC was the epicenter of covid here in the US.
Also NYC was the epicenter of covid

I live in NY. I get to hear every day how we are so blessed.
[Reply]
O.city 09:31 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
I would favor a strategy that protects nursing homes without killing people under 70 years old who according to Ioannidis have a .05 IFR globally.
We can keep that IFR there when every one can get treatment and you can protect the people who will have major problems.

The issue is you can't really protect that many people. There's millions of people who are high risk. Nursing homes, elderly who live in multigenrational homes, etc.

The whole "protect those at risk" thing sounds great on paper. It's not feasible when there is this much spread. It will get into those areas.
[Reply]
Donger 09:32 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Yup, they didn't have to. Their crappy model wasn't a black box afterall.


Matt Ridley
@mattwridley
·
Jun 3
Uppsala University took the Imperial College model (or one of them) and adapted it to Sweden, and forecasted 90,000 deaths in Sweden by the end of May if there was no lockdown and 40,000 if there was.

In fact, there have only been 4,350 deaths in Sweden.

'Uppsala University took the Imperial College model – or one of them – and adapted it to Sweden and forecasted deaths in Sweden of over 90,000 by the end of May if there was no lockdown and 40,000 if a full lockdown was inforced. In fact, there have only been 4,350 deaths in Sweden until the end of May. This does seem to be a huge discrepancy and suggests there was something wrong with the model...'
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...be-replicated-
You realize that you just proved yourself wrong, right?
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:38 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
You realize that you just proved yourself wrong, right?
Yay, now I just remembered having this exact conversation with you months ago and you are still doing the same crap.

Hope you get a copy of Neil "Millions of Dead" Ferguson when it comes out to stores.
[Reply]
Donger 09:41 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Yay, now I just remembered having this exact conversation with you months ago and you are still doing the same crap.

Hope you get a copy of Neil "Millions of Dead" Ferguson when it comes out to stores.
Correcting disinformation isn't crap.
[Reply]
O.city 09:50 AM 11-03-2020

COVID has one goal. To spread. Here are the repercussions of ONE source of #COVID19 at an indoor sports practice.

60 people (still rising) tested positive over 18 days.

170+ people needed to self-isolate and 7 outbreaks were declared.

Our actions matter. Please be #COVIDWise pic.twitter.com/cTFtzCQASD

— Ottawa Public Health (@ottawahealth) November 2, 2020


Interesting example of contract tracing.
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 09:54 AM 11-03-2020
"We employed an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson et al. Individual-based models are increasingly used to model epidemic spread with explicit representation of demographic and spatial factors such as population distribution, workplace data, school data, and mobility...

"This individual-based modelling project predicts that with the current mitigation approach approximately 96,000 deaths (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000) can be expected before 1 July, 2020. At the peak period (early May), the need for ICU beds will be at least 40-fold higher than the pre-pandemic ICU-bed capacity, not considering ICU admissions for other conditions.

"Current policies reduce this number by approximately 15%, [81,000 deaths] while even more aggressive social distancing measures, such as adding household isolation or mandated social distancing can reduce this number by more than 50% [48,000].

[Reply]
O.city 09:56 AM 11-03-2020

Bahrain allows Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine candidate use in frontline workers.

If truly effective, a live attenuated vaccine of this kind could well provide long-term immunity against the virus. https://t.co/NCXjw2dIbL

— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) November 3, 2020

[Reply]
Donger 09:56 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
"We employed an individual agent-based model based on work by Ferguson et al. Individual-based models are increasingly used to model epidemic spread with explicit representation of demographic and spatial factors such as population distribution, workplace data, school data, and mobility...

"This individual-based modelling project predicts that with the current mitigation approach approximately 96,000 deaths (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000) can be expected before 1 July, 2020. At the peak period (early May), the need for ICU beds will be at least 40-fold higher than the pre-pandemic ICU-bed capacity, not considering ICU admissions for other conditions.

"Current policies reduce this number by approximately 15%, [81,000 deaths] while even more aggressive social distancing measures, such as adding household isolation or mandated social distancing can reduce this number by more than 50% [48,000].
Why did you post this?
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 09:59 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Correcting disinformation isn't crap.
Have fun with that.

I am reminded of the people who sold the War On Terrorism and the War on Drugs. Those great wasted efforts still have loyal cheerleaders, no matter the proof that it was all for nothing.
[Reply]
Donger 10:02 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Have fun with that.

I am reminded of the people who sold the War On Terrorism and the War on Drugs. Those great wasted efforts still have loyal cheerleaders, no matter the proof that it was all for nothing.
Your colors are showing again.
[Reply]
MahomesMagic 10:04 AM 11-03-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
We can keep that IFR there when every one can get treatment and you can protect the people who will have major problems.

The issue is you can't really protect that many people. There's millions of people who are high risk. Nursing homes, elderly who live in multigenrational homes, etc.

The whole "protect those at risk" thing sounds great on paper. It's not feasible when there is this much spread. It will get into those areas.
The NY state strategy of "protect" everyone has no yielded better results than Sweden, far from it.

We only have limited resources. It doesn't matter how hard you lock down. None of these NPI's can stop the virus. At best a small delay.
[Reply]
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