Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
This is interesting, though. If I pull down those two sets of data and compare deaths to recoveries, check it out.
Some places that tend to have a fair number of cases and reliable reporting are showing very high death rates - Italy, France, and South Korea, as well as those Diamond Princess people. In fairness, Germany and Singapore are reporting none, but the numbers in some of these areas are very high.
So are we seeing significant underreporting of deaths by China? They have one province that is reporting 0 deaths and 538 recoveries, and most of their death rates outside Ground Zero are really low.
This table bothers me, and not just because it's poorly formatted. There's a big difference between a 1 percent death that we've been hearing and a 15 percent death rate.
My hope is that perhaps the death rates outside China are more due to older tourists or something. Maybe there's a skew we don't know about.
Code:
Location Recovered Died Death Rate
Western Australia*Australia 0 1 100.0%
King County, WA*US 1 2 66.7%
*Philippines 1 1 50.0%
*South Korea 30 22 42.3%
"Diamond Princess" cruise ship*Others 10 6 37.5%
*Italy 83 34 29.1%
*Iran 175 54 23.6%
*Japan 32 6 15.8%
*France 12 2 14.3%
Taiwan*Taiwan 12 1 7.7%
Hubei*Mainland China 33757 2803 7.7%
Hong Kong*Hong Kong 36 2 5.3%
Xinjiang*Mainland China 64 3 4.5%
Heilongjiang*Mainland China 350 13 3.6%
*Thailand 28 1 3.4%
Hainan*Mainland China 151 5 3.2%
Beijing*Mainland China 282 8 2.8%
Tianjin*Mainland China 111 3 2.6%
Gansu*Mainland China 84 2 2.3%
Hebei*Mainland China 294 6 2.0%
Henan*Mainland China 1206 22 1.8%
Guizhou*Mainland China 114 2 1.7%
Chongqing*Mainland China 450 6 1.3%
Shandong*Mainland China 455 6 1.3%
Jilin*Mainland China 78 1 1.3%
Yunnan*Mainland China 163 2 1.2%
Guangxi*Mainland China 188 2 1.1%
Shanghai*Mainland China 292 3 1.0%
Liaoning*Mainland China 103 1 1.0%
Sichuan*Mainland China 378 3 0.8%
Anhui*Mainland China 888 6 0.7%
Guangdong*Mainland China 1036 7 0.7%
Shaanxi*Mainland China 209 1 0.5%
Hunan*Mainland China 879 4 0.5%
Fujian*Mainland China 247 1 0.4%
Jiangxi*Mainland China 850 1 0.1%
Zhejiang*Mainland China 1050 1 0.1%
*Belgium 1 0 0.0%
*Cambodia 1 0 0.0%
*Egypt 1 0 0.0%
*Finland 1 0 0.0%
*Germany 16 0 0.0%
*India 3 0 0.0%
*Israel 1 0 0.0%
*Malaysia 18 0 0.0%
*Nepal 1 0 0.0%
*Oman 1 0 0.0%
*Russia 2 0 0.0%
*Singapore 72 0 0.0%
*Spain 2 0 0.0%
*Sri Lanka 1 0 0.0%
*UK 8 0 0.0%
*United Arab Emirates 5 0 0.0%
*Vietnam 16 0 0.0%
Boston, MA*US 1 0 0.0%
British Columbia*Canada 3 0 0.0%
Chicago, IL*US 2 0 0.0%
Inner Mongolia*Mainland China 52 0 0.0%
Jiangsu*Mainland China 538 0 0.0%
London, ON*Canada 1 0 0.0%
Macau*Macau 8 0 0.0%
New South Wales*Australia 4 0 0.0%
Ningxia*Mainland China 69 0 0.0%
Qinghai*Mainland China 18 0 0.0%
Queensland*Australia 1 0 0.0%
San Diego County, CA*US 1 0 0.0%
Santa Clara, CA*US 1 0 0.0%
Shanxi*Mainland China 116 0 0.0%
South Australia*Australia 2 0 0.0%
Tempe, AZ*US 1 0 0.0%
Tibet*Mainland China 1 0 0.0%
Toronto, ON*Canada 2 0 0.0%
Victoria*Australia 4 0 0.0%
Total 45074 3044 6.3%
Yeah, okay, this is not cool. If I sum up the deaths and recoveries by region, here's what I see.
Region Death Rate Sample Size (Deaths plus Recoveries)
Cruise 37.5% , N= 16
East Asia 27.9% , N= 104
Middle East 22.8% , N= 237
West 20.9% , N= 187
China 6.1% , N= 47431
S and SE Asia 1.4% , N= 143
S and SE Asia is really low because there are no reports of deaths in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia despite a fair number of cases.
I defined the west as Europe, North America, Australia, and Russia. I didn't know how to count the cruise ship so I left it separate. [Reply]
Originally Posted by wazu:
Now it's okay to panic.
Honestly, this is pretty disturbing. Check out Post 378. Unless there's some particular reason for people outside China to be more vulnerable, I think China's death numbers are either understated or they're being really liberal on their diagnoses. But in the latter case, that would still mean that the death rate is really high for those who get it.
Can anyone give me a good theory on why people outside China are dying at triple the rate of the Chinese? [Reply]
Is it possible that it takes several weeks to shake this thing, and China has been able to close more cases as "recovered"? That would be an innocent explanation for the differences. But even a 6 percent mortality rate is really bad if it's going to be widespread. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Honestly, this is pretty disturbing. Check out Post 378. Unless there's some particular reason for people outside China to be more vulnerable, I think China's death numbers are either understated or they're being really liberal on their diagnoses. But in the latter case, that would still mean that the death rate is really high for those who get it.
Can anyone give me a good theory on why people outside China are dying at triple the rate of the Chinese?
Because the Chinese lied like crazy. This is disturbing. [Reply]
The best way to combat this is to force old ppl to stay at home and watch Wheel of Fortune. Let everyone below 60 get it and build immunity. This is going to spread more than it did in China here. In China, they have a culture of wearing surgical masks when they are sick. That prevents its spreading but not contracting it. They are communist and don't care about human rights so they quarantined the shit out of the place. They pulled infected ppl out of their cars and houses to do so. Things we would never do here.
Then the CDC and media tell us that wearing masks is pointless...which isnt true. Wearing an N95 mask definitely is a reasonable solution for those inclined to do so IF the virus continues to spread ESPECIALLY for old ppl. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Is it possible that it takes several weeks to shake this thing, and China has been able to close more cases as "recovered"? That would be an innocent explanation for the differences. But even a 6 percent mortality rate is really bad if it's going to be widespread.
I don't think anyone really knows how many cases there really are, because it seems very possible for people to have it and have mild symptoms, or none at all. Look at how today they're raising concerns that this virus may have already been in Washington state for the last six weeks and nobody knew. [Reply]
NO2 is formed during combustion in fossil-fuel power plants and internal combustion engines. It serves as a surrogate for industrial activity. It basically shows that China has shut down. [Reply]
Can't post the link on my phone, but NASA confirms the drop in no2. They said it usually drops this time of year for Asian holidays, but this is a larger and more sustained drop. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Can't post the link on my phone, but NASA confirms the drop in no2. They said it usually drops this time of year for Asian holidays, but this is a larger and more sustained drop.
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
Honestly, this is pretty disturbing. Check out Post 378. Unless there's some particular reason for people outside China to be more vulnerable, I think China's death numbers are either understated or they're being really liberal on their diagnoses. But in the latter case, that would still mean that the death rate is really high for those who get it.
Can anyone give me a good theory on why people outside China are dying at triple the rate of the Chinese?
because they are a bunch of lying mother fuckers that don’t give a shit if their lies endanger other countries? [Reply]
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