I still think competition is the most compelling argument against Moore, if we're making one. All the grading and analytics still struggle to factor it in, and frankly, it's understandable.

I've not seen the relationship between recruitment and NFL production but I could see it. I'd just say that that comes into consideration after college production, for me. 5 star recruit that was uber-productive in college, yep, he's gonna be good. 2 star recruit that was uber-productive in college, well, I'm much more interested in the production. 2 start recruit beating up scrubs...OK, I get it, maybe you're notching down your expectations again.

In any case it'll be interesting to see how this draft class shakes out. We're either lauding the approach of picking up gems from small schools - Moore, Williams, or we're going back to tried and tested powerhouses. Veach has done a bit of both the last couple of drafts.
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15+ years ago when year-round NFL Draft analysis and resources were far harder to come by, yeah, Walter Football was one such thing you could use if you absolutely needed a fix. But even then, I think people knew what they were getting was pretty much crap.

Today there are any number of dudes just like Walter Football who do a better job, and their mock drafts are way better thought out than "Well, it's a positional need." Hell, half the time Walter is inaccurate about what actual team personnel needs are because he just doesn't pay attention to the NFL in the regular season enough.
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'All the time' is quite the stretch.

Typically about 20% of draft picks in a given year are 2 star recruits (or lower). Just looking at last year's SB teams, 7 of the 44 starters were 2 stars or lower, so it largely checks out there as well.

The overwhelming majority of successful NFL players started as high-level recruits.

And again, I already said that recruiting rankings aren't dispositive. But when you're talking large numbers, they very clearly matter. And level of competition matters now more than ever in the free transfer era when kids in the lower levels can make a seamless transfer without needing to sit out a year.
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I think a mix of approaches is always worthwhile. I just think as fans we need to temper expectations accordingly. Some guys truly are just late bloomers and you don't want to miss those.

But I think transfers are just so easy these days that you'll see fewer and fewer of those. If a guy can't get out of the FCS or get from the MAC into at least a lower level Power 5 school to test himself against higher level opponents, well these days there's a reason for that.

A few years ago it was just that he didn't really figure things out until after college and then after developing through his first 2 years, didn't want to sit out a season to transfer so he played out his JR year and declared. Now that same kid would just move on if the opportunities were there.

When they don't, that says he's either a 1 year wonder (a red flag in its own right) or he simply wasn't in demand from those schools. Oh some nominal level of kids are just homebodies or wanted to stay with the guys they got started with. But the guys who are looking to make the NFL their livelihoods are going to want to get noticed for the most part. And they'll want to move someplace that allows that.
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This isn’t true. There are so many elite players who were not highly rated high school recruits.

Skyy was a QB who started over as a receiver in college. Those guys hardly ever get recognized. But it’s not about how you start. It’s always how you finish.

Just because you transfer doesn’t mean you’re any better. Gehrig Dieter transferred to Alabama and where is he now?

Meanwhile some kid from Tyler, TX only got an opportunity from Texas Tech bc he thought about baseball first. I think that guy is alright…
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Outliers are outliers.
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It is true. The numbers are what the numbers are and they're pretty easy to find.

Over large numbers, how you start is absolutely and unquestionably relevant.

20% of the league is still 300 some odd players. Yes, there are Cooper Kupps to be found. But in a league w/ 1700, that's absolutely an outlier. And as I have said repeatedly now, being a low-ranked player out of high school isn't dispositive of anything. But it's something to consider. You can ignore the large numbers if you'd like, but you're doing so at your own peril and doing yourself a disservice in the process.

If Sky Moore breaks out, he'll be an outlier. I don't see any real way to argue to the contrary. Not just as a 2nd round pick or as a guy who wasn't taken in the top 12 of WRs, but as a small school, lowly recruited player who even after transitioning to and succeeding at WR as a true Freshman, never moved on to a larger college.

And I'm not sure how Patrick Mahomes, a 3-star kid who excelled at a Power 5 School, is even remotely relevant here. But hey, good effort I guess.
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There’s a lot of outliers then. I mean you can disregard Travis Kelce the best TE in the league. Cooper Kupp the OPTY. Aaron Donald the best defensive player in the league.

The best QB’s are Mahomes, Rodgers and Allen and none of those guys were highly rated coming out of high school.

Seems to me this league is not built on 5 star recruits especially at the top.
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I realize you want Moore to be good, hence here we are doing this whole song and dance.

But outliers are outliers for a reason. Tom Brady was a 5th rounder, Cooper Kupp, etc. They happen. I wouldn't count on them happening.
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Moore, up until this point, IS an “outlier”.

Guys that have only been playing the position for 3 years are rarely as good of route runners as he is with hands as good as his.

His hand size, wingspan, and 10 yard split are outliers statistically.

Never been more confident that people will be eating crow on this one.
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I like Skyy but it’s more about the league not being 5 star recruits. So many of its best players were not highly regarded high school recruits.

Jonathan Taylor and TJ Watt, the leaders in rushing yards and sacks, were also not highly ranked recruits.
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Again, man, stars themselves are outliers. The vast majority of guys aren't going to be stars.
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I wonder how many also just don't want the risk of being stuck down the pecking order. I mean it's happened to some pretty highly regarded players. Obviously that lack of confidence isn't inspiring, but if you're seeing more guys picked up from small schools (and I'm not sure if that's the case) then perhaps the risk of moving is factored in.

The other issue is - wasn't Moore recruited as a QB? That happens a fair bit as well. Guy's a 3 star recruit and then switches position. Surely that impacts how many top teams are likely to be around the portal?
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Think this is very reasonable, but it's not happening at CP, I've worked that much out.
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So we're asking why was the Skyy falling?



I'll see my self out...
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