JR makes a very intriguing point I hadn't considered. I can confirm that back when online poker was getting huge in the USA, and offshore gambling / sports betting along with it, there were tons of competitors offering really good bonuses and such. There was even a name for it, for players that would go from site to site for their offers: "bonus whores", and big legit profits could be made just by playing those right.
It sounds like this could be a similar new wave of the same. Touche' JR. [Reply]
In the moneyline for an NBA game, the L.A. Lakers are -300 and the Dallas Mavericks +200.
The formula for Implied probability is risk/return, so a bet on the Lakers means 300 (wagered)/400 (return) = 0.75, or a win probability of 75%. A bet on the Mavericks means 100 (wagered)/300 (return) = 0.33, or a win probability of 33%.
Add the two implied probabilities (0.75) + (0.33) = 1.08 total implied probability. That means an overround of 8%. Theoretically, that bookie will pay out $100 for every $108 in wagers accepted.
The vig formula is 1-(1/overround) x 100. In this case, that’s 1- (1/108) x 100. That calculates to 0.740, or a vig of 7.40%.
The vig calculators save time and are a good way for a player to evaluate what each sportsbook charges on every wager.
Great information.
So if you figure the sportsbook vig on money line. Are the prop futures expected to have a similar vig?
Or, do the vig calculators able to compute vigs on futures bet for division, conference, super bowl champs? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
JR makes a very intriguing point I hadn't considered. I can confirm that back when online poker was getting huge in the USA, and offshore gambling / sports betting along with it, there were tons of competitors offering really good bonuses and such. There was even a name for it, for players that would go from site to site for their offers: "bonus whores", and big legit profits could be made just by playing those right.
It sounds like this could be a similar new wave of the same. Touche' JR.
Not only for the initial bonuses, but the ongoing profit boosts and promos they do. Beyond that, these bookmakers just aren’t very good at setting odds yet. Very easy to get favorable lines when comparing to Pinnacle, Superbook, or Circa. [Reply]
So if you figure the sportsbook vig on money line. Are the prop futures expected to have a similar vig?
Or, do the vig calculators able to compute vigs on futures bet for division, conference, super bowl champs?
You can do that same math with futures bets. Just instead of two teams, you gotta calculate it for all 32 or 16 or 4 teams they are offering (as in, 32 teams could win the SB, 16 teams could win the conference, 4 teams could win the division). You will find that instead of them adding up to 108% like that example, they add up to ridiculous numbers like 680% or 400%. That means the vig is through the roof. Futures are notorious sucker bets, basically. Still, they are very fun.
As far as NFL goes, you wont be dealing with straight moneylines as much, but point spreads. I'm not sure how to account for point spreads (I mostly bet baseball which is more about moneylines). But all NFL games also have moneylines offered by the same book, and point spreads are generally pegged the same. Meaning, you could calc the vig on the moneyline and if it is reasonable, the spread will be reasonable as well, as offered by the same book.
The thing to watch out for with point spreads in NFL is the key numbers (3 and 7). Difference between a 7.5 favorite and a 8.5 favorite is small, but the difference between a 2.5 favorite and a 3.5 pt favorite is HUGE. But thats another topic.
Honestly, I didnt know they had these vig calculators that that website I quoted from mentioned. But I bet if you find some, the finer details will be accounted for, including how to account for point spreads. [Reply]
Standard point spread bets are going to be -110 on each side, which implies a 4.76% vig. They will sometimes move the odds instead of the points (one side pays +100, the other -120 for example), so that isn’t always the case, but it will be clearly marked what the odds are. [Reply]
Originally Posted by neech:
I'm not much of a gambler at all. And if I was going to bet it would be on football because I know something about.
The few times I thought something was a mother of all locks I think okay maybe I will bet a couple hundred on it and then I can't get myself to do it.
Then come to find out I would've lost the money anyway. Sometimes I think some of this stuff is fixed.
My best advice then is don’t bet. The hardest part about gambling is bankroll management, a lesson I’ve learned the hard way multiple times. This is my third “time” betting and I think I’ve finally got it figured out. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi:
My best advice then is don’t bet. The hardest part about gambling is bankroll management, a lesson I’ve learned the hard way multiple times. This is my third “time” betting and I think I’ve finally got it figured out.
You use the kelly criterion JR? Maybe half kelly?
Eta: so as not to be vague - as per wikipedia:
In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), is a formula that determines the optimal theoretical size for a bet. It is valid when the expected returns are known. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. It was described by J. L. Kelly Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956.[1] The criterion is also known as the scientific gambling method, as it leads to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. the theoretical maximum return as the number of bets goes to infinity). [Reply]
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
You use the kelly criterion JR? Maybe half kelly?
Eta: so as not to be vague - as per wikipedia:
In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), is a formula that determines the optimal theoretical size for a bet. It is valid when the expected returns are known. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. It was described by J. L. Kelly Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956.[1] The criterion is also known as the scientific gambling method, as it leads to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. the theoretical maximum return as the number of bets goes to infinity).
I did when building bankroll. I’ve built large enough to not have to worry about it and can max out boosts/promos as they’re typically capped at $50-$100. [Reply]