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Lenny "The Cool" Lounge>Investing megathread extravaganza
DaFace 11:23 AM 06-27-2016
A place to talk about investing stuff.
[Reply]
Cornstock 09:45 PM 01-29-2018
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin:
The next 2 days will be interesting. Trumps state of the Union speech should boost infrastructure stocks and then 1/31 the earnings report for X makes me nervous. I'm thinking of just putting a stop loss at 38.25. If we make it though the earnings report it should move on up some more since it finally broke $40.

If the stop loss gets triggered I may move my X money to NUE or STLD and stay in steel. I already own both those anyway. Still thinking GE needs to be bought at some point. But I'm thinking $13. When they spin off their trash sectors this year it could gain 100% over 6 months. IMO.

X seems like its been moving slow but my chart says it's up 16.94% since Jan 1.
Caterpillar would be another great stock to buy tomorrow morning before the speech. It's already the number 2 performer on the DOW last year, and stands to gain much more if Trump makes infrastructure a priority.
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Cornstock 10:03 PM 01-29-2018
Originally Posted by wheeler08:
I just opened this thread for the first time today, and read a few pages.
So here's my story and question

I worked in a factory for 18 years, since the day I turned 18. I put 7% of every paycheck into a 401k, company matched 3-5 % for 3/4ths of that time (It was mind blowing how many co workers didn't put anything in, I tried to convince them to at least do 3% to get the company to match) anyway, I decided in May last year to quit. I moved my family across the state to work for my father in law, with the plan to take his place when he retires.
So I roll over my 401k to an IRA, both at Fidelity. I immediately notice that I have a ton more options in what to invest in with an IRA. Not only are there way more mutual funds to choose from, but from what I think I understand, I can invest in individual stocks if I want to.

So from June to December this past year I only invested $200. Because we were paying all the bills of a house we were trying to sell, plus building a new house where we moved to. With my IRA I gained almost $20k in that 6 months with only investing $200. For the year I gained almost $30k.

I was talking to my Dad the other day, and we both talked about how great our 401k/IRA's had done this year, and he said, yeah but when is the bottom gonna fall out? And I joked that I had thought of moving all my investments to bonds before it happened. And he said he was thinking seriously about doing that, because he's almost 60, I'm only 36. He's already almost lost everything once before from the housing market and he had to see friends work years past retirement because of it.

So thats the question, are you guys worried at all about the bottom falling out, or are you still watching the DOW climb to new heights ever day?
Smart of you to take advantage of the 401k match and using it as a vehicle to save more. A savvy investor may opt to contribute the minimum to a 401k to earn the match, and invest in an an IRA/Roth outside of work to take advantage of additional fund offerings, but for the every day saver you've made the right choice.

As far as the "bottom falling out," you being 36 should not worry about this as long as you have a disciplined long term strategy. A market correction of 10% won't break you like it would a person near retirement, and you will be able to participate in the inevitable recovery, which is the most lucrative time in a market.

As for your father, he may want to reallocate his portfolio to something more defensive, or at least conservative. If he is content with his savings, he can take a preservation of capital approach so his Principle isn't eroded by inflation.

There are so many variables here depending on his objective. Does he plan to retire soon and just need income to supplement social security? Does he plan on working for several more years?

To go down the planning rabbit hole, does he have significant liabilities, and has he considered long term care insurance? Medical expenses can significantly reduce retirement savings and are typically woefully prepared for. Just a few things to consider.
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Hog's Gone Fishin 07:41 AM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by Cornstock:
Caterpillar would be another great stock to buy tomorrow morning before the speech. It's already the number 2 performer on the DOW last year, and stands to gain much more if Trump makes infrastructure a priority.
Yep, own it.

(KMTUY) Komatsu is another good one and actually outperforming CAT but it's a Japanese company so I'm not buying that.
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Nightfyre 08:50 AM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
Yeah, my class graduated with an average of 300k at 7 percent.

I set mine up on a 20 year repay to make sure I could always make the Mo they payment, which is still about 2900 bucks.
Iíve been throwing as much as I can at it, but youíve also gotta pay a mortgage and health insurance and apparently, kids need to eat. :-)

As I said though, the Missouri national guard is looking for dentist and if I sign up for a 6 year term, theyíll a lot 40k per year for up to 240k max for loan repayment. So doing 1 weekend per month and 2 weeks per year just doing some dentistry for them, paired with what Iím currently Paul g, I can be done with it in 3 years, 4 max. Iíll atill have 2 years of duty left but I can turn that over into a 50k 2 year bonus and throw that into a retirement plan plus I get paid for my service time there which as an officer would end up being about 13 grand per year.

But yeah I just wanna get these damn loans over with
Be aware that the medical student loan program that pays 40/ year from the guard is not granted upon signing up, but applied for after joining, and there are limited slots. Additionally, the program is taxable income. My buddy just joined as a veterinarian and the medical recruitment NCO left those details out...
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Buehler445 09:12 AM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by Nightfyre:
Be aware that the medical student loan program that pays 40/ year from the guard is not granted upon signing up, but applied for after joining, and there are limited slots. Additionally, the program is taxable income. My buddy just joined as a veterinarian and the medical recruitment NCO left those details out...
Yikes. That's handy.
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kepp 10:41 AM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by Nightfyre:
Be aware that the medical student loan program that pays 40/ year from the guard is not granted upon signing up, but applied for after joining, and there are limited slots. Additionally, the program is taxable income. My buddy just joined as a veterinarian and the medical recruitment NCO left those details out...
Wow, those are important details to leave out. Couldn't something like that be considered fraud at some level?
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RunKC 10:59 AM 01-30-2018
About to pay off our last student loan payment, which is 13.5k. Gonna be hella nice to have $284 extra a month and not have any debt aside from the mortgage.

Still not comfortable with my 6 month emergency fund. I am pretty close currently and after paying off this last bit of debt I’ll have enough left over for 3 months of emergency funds. Hope to get that up to 6 by Fall.
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Nightfyre 11:05 AM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by kepp:
Wow, those are important details to leave out. Couldn't something like that be considered fraud at some level?
You waive your right to sue the army when you join, I believe.
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O.city 11:59 AM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by Nightfyre:
Be aware that the medical student loan program that pays 40/ year from the guard is not granted upon signing up, but applied for after joining, and there are limited slots. Additionally, the program is taxable income. My buddy just joined as a veterinarian and the medical recruitment NCO left those details out...
Yeah, Iíve already let them know Iím not signing unless I can get that so we shall see.

It sucks that itís taxable but Iíll throw enough deductions out there to hopefully get it down.

Luckily I havenít signed anything yet
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Buehler445 01:47 PM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by O.city:
Yeah, Iíve already let them know Iím not signing unless I can get that so we shall see.

It sucks that itís taxable but Iíll throw enough deductions out there to hopefully get it down.

Luckily I havenít signed anything yet
You can come up with 40 grand of deductions?
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O.city 02:22 PM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by Buehler445:
You can come up with 40 grand of deductions?
Fuck if I have to, maybe
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kepp 04:40 PM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by Cornstock:
Smart of you to take advantage of the 401k match and using it as a vehicle to save more. A savvy investor may opt to contribute the minimum to a 401k to earn the match, and invest in an an IRA/Roth outside of work to take advantage of additional fund offerings, but for the every day saver you've made the right choice.

As far as the "bottom falling out," you being 36 should not worry about this as long as you have a disciplined long term strategy. A market correction of 10% won't break you like it would a person near retirement, and you will be able to participate in the inevitable recovery, which is the most lucrative time in a market.

...
But if you can time the correction fairly close and change over to bonds until it hits bottom, and then move back over to aggressive funds, won't you get much more from the recovery? I know...lots of 'ifs' in that, but if you can work it...
[Reply]
DaFace 04:54 PM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by kepp:
But if you can time the correction fairly close and change over to bonds until it hits bottom, and then move back over to aggressive funds, won't you get much more from the recovery? I know...lots of 'ifs' in that, but if you can work it...
Sure, if you're able to see into the future, that's a great approach. In reality, almost everyone sucks at timing the market.
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lewdog 05:50 PM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by kepp:
But if you can time the correction fairly close and change over to bonds until it hits bottom, and then move back over to aggressive funds, won't you get much more from the recovery? I know...lots of 'ifs' in that, but if you can work it...
That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what you’re suggesting though. If you don’t meet that criteria, you’ll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.

People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.

Timing the market in retirement accounts isn’t worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.
[Reply]
Unsmooth-Moment 07:59 PM 01-30-2018
Originally Posted by lewdog:
That rarely works and should never be done for those in the accumulation stage. Those 10 years or less from retirement might do what youíre suggesting though. If you donít meet that criteria, youíll likely lose more in preparation for a downturn than actually riding out equities.

People talked about moving money and an impending correction around 20 in the Dow. People did move money. Here we sit at 26. Those people missed 30% gains.

Timing the market in retirement accounts isnít worth it. Decide on your allocation preference and rebalance 1-2x per year.


This is good advice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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