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The Lounge>How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?
MMXcalibur 07:21 PM 11-21-2021
Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

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Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%
[Reply]
BleedingRed 08:54 AM 11-30-2021
We don't need the fucking #1 seed anymore. We have the experience to go anywhere and play.

FUCK IT, WILL DO IT LIVE
[Reply]
RealSNR 09:24 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
People were scared of average Titans teams the past few years, and now that they actually have a defense (and handed the Chiefs their worst loss in a long time), they're a joke?

When healthy, they were solid.

What do you mean? Their defense is the worst itís been in several years. Certainly their defense from the AFC Championship a few years ago is better than what they have now (or did have earlier in the season)

Just because we shit the bed against them doesnít mean they have a great defense. They donít
[Reply]
RealSNR 09:26 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
You're missing Baltimore in that equation, who is honestly the odds-on favorite at this point.

Iíll buy you a box of doughnuts if Baltimore gets the 1 seed.

Not happening. Itís gonna be the patriots or the chiefs.
[Reply]
Direckshun 09:29 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by RealSNR:
Iíll buy you a box of doughnuts if Baltimore gets the 1 seed.

Not happening. Itís gonna be the patriots or the chiefs.
Patriots have a doable path, for sure. The Chiefs have to run the table. If we do, the Patriots can lose the lead on us if they lose one game, just one game. But they don't have many potential losses on their calendar -- the duo with Buffalo is about it for them. So if we lose once, which I expect we'll do, we almost certainly lose out.

Baltimore has to lose twice, of course, if we run the table. Baltimore has a hell of a schedule ahead of them and very well may lose twice.

I just think the hardest equation here is us running the table -- we have a doable schedule but expecting perfection down the stretch is hard for anyone, much less our mistake prone squad this year.
[Reply]
crispystl 09:35 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by Coochie liquor:
I just donít see a blowout. Matter of fact I think the Pats win this game. Buffalo has no running game, or RB to scare anyone. Bill will clamp down the pass D with lots of pressure on Allen, and dare them to run (which they canít). Plus how many big games have we seen Allen choke under high pressure? I think itís a close game the Pats win.
I concur. Plus the Pats will be in the Bills' head.
[Reply]
crispystl 09:44 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
You're missing Baltimore in that equation, who is honestly the odds-on favorite at this point.
Oh no he was referring to "contenders". He didn't miss anyone.
[Reply]
DaFace 09:50 AM 11-30-2021
Playing around with the NYT simulator a bit, it looks like we would have a pretty good shot at it (~75% chance) if we win out. That's taking into account all of the other likely scenarios for other teams. A single loss drops that down to ~20%, though.

So yeah, we can definitely do it, but it's almost certainly going to require running the table.
[Reply]
Red Dawg 09:53 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
We don't need the ****ing #1 seed anymore. We have the experience to go anywhere and play.

**** IT, WILL DO IT LIVE
That's good to know because we are not getting it without a total melt down by the Titans and Pats.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 09:58 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by Red Dawg:
That's good to know because we are not getting it without a total melt down by the Titans and Pats.
Pats will drop 1 or 2 before post season, same with Titans. It's the Ravens we have to worry about.
[Reply]
RunKC 09:59 AM 11-30-2021
Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right?

And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team
[Reply]
arrwheader 10:06 AM 11-30-2021
Would love the 1 seed but after the tumultuous start of the season, still just feel like win the division get into the playoffs and we have as good a shot as any. Would be happy with 2 seed as well. Got a chance to still play at arrowhead throughout the playoffs if the 1 seed gets knocked out.

Baltimore is losing to GB and probably the rams. I can even see them splitting with the Browns.

Pats have a pretty good chance but Bill has lost to the dolphins in the past so don't count them as a shoe in for it. They probably split with Buffalo and could lose to the colts.

Gonna come down to the last game this year I think. Seems like the NFL backlogged division games more this year





Sent from my SM-F711U1 using Tapatalk
[Reply]
Bearcat 10:08 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right?

And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team
And the other is 6-5.
[Reply]
htismaqe 10:11 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Are people really afraid of the Patriots and a rookie QB? You guys realize they have beat only 2 winning teams all year right?

And one of them was last Sunday against a nuetered injury rittled team
Not to mention that they're playing complimentary football - rush heavy to help keep things simple for him.

Things will ramp up in the playoffs. He'll have to play even better than he is right now. We saw what happens even to the best rookies when that happens.
[Reply]
mr. tegu 10:13 AM 11-30-2021
The Chiefs have a better chance of winning out than the Patriots. They could easily be 0-3 in their next three games with two against the Bills and the Colts sandwiched between them with 1-2 seeming pretty likely to me.
[Reply]
ptlyon 10:13 AM 11-30-2021
Originally Posted by arrwheader:

Gonna come down to the last game this year I think.
This statement got me intrigued, so I went to look.

Every AFC game in week 18 is a noon game, except the AFCW matchups.
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