Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Willie Lanier:
Your logic is sound and I won't debate that, but good luck convincing me that a mass death of the elderly wouldn't be beneficial to mankind..
advocating for the mass death of Americans as a good thing? Really? :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Dude stop this stuff. You both need to knock it off or you both should be removed from this thread.
It is getting real old that when I come in here you are attacking him when he is not here or you both are going back and forth at each other.
No one wants to read/hear this stupid bickering that you both are doing. JMO but both you are acting like a couple of little children or women that are on that cycle and the other is the ex spouse that found someone sexier than they ever were.
NOW SHUT THE **** UP AND MOVE ON OR GET THE **** OUT!!!!!
I have posted in this thread 3 times prior to this post since 2pm, 1 post you apparently have your panties up your ass about of the 3.
I haven't violated a single rule or been out of line so chill the fuck out. [Reply]
Some of you here stand a better chance of dying of a blood clot breaking loose from inactivity setting posting in this thread than covid 19. From early morning to late into the night you know who you are. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
I respect everyone on here who wants to say they believe something else — I’m just telling you that the math might be off a point here or there but is otherwise provable from a lot of statistics that are sitting right in front of all of us.
Everywhere there is a real lockdown there is a 10-14 day period of exponential growth baked in. Between 12%-13% of those people will die based on the math. If we do a better job of slowing the spread the overall group that is subject to that fraction goes down. There is a number (when the health care system becomes maxed out) that the percentage of the overall group of new infected rises. By keeping the first number low we will keep the second number low.
None of this is exact of course. But to say we won’t have more deaths then some other country ignores the data to date.
We already have deaths more than some of other countries. No one is saying we won't or don't. What people are arguing is your linear math that compensates for nothing at all in the way of mitigation. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
How many of those 10,000 cases are mild? How many of those cases are people at risk? The only reason the number of cases is higher that it was 8 days ago is because we tested. We are still running at well below half the global death rate.
See the problem in your math? You're being too ****ing literal. There are countless variables you are not and are unable to take in. If I had to take a guess I would say of the 10,000 cases 125 will die bases on current death rate.
Your math assumes nothing but continuation along a linear curve with 0 variables.
No. I’m talking about the next two to three weeks. That increase is baked in given the time from exposure to infection.
Tell me how many of the 10,500 infected today you think will die? If you think it is closer to 1% because of the reasons you gave then you’re saying that there will be half as many dead a week from now then today.
I’m not trying to convince you of anything. I hope you’re right. There’s just zero evidence from anywhere to support your conclusion. That doesn’t mean you might not be right either. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Put people on ignore or remove yourself. I don't even know what the fuck you're bitching about but :-) or ignore people.
Shut up Pete. If you don't know what is going on that is your problem. I guarantee you that most people do. Donger and him have been going back and forth at each other.
Take your own advice and put me on ignore or remove yourself. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
It would be futile, are they to stop every car they see driving to see whats up?
Of course not duh.
Yup they dont have the resources because shit like this is still going on. This is my neighborhood this Saturday and same thing happened 2 different times because the hood rats are renting out Airbnbs 1 is a know trap house the other was a party that got shot up
Originally Posted by petegz28:
We already have deaths more than some of other countries. No one is saying we won't or don't. What people are arguing is your linear math that compensates for nothing at all in the way of mitigation.
Mitigation will only take hold after the second week. Again, this is proven out by the data on hand. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
No. I’m talking about the next two to three weeks. That increase is baked in given the time from exposure to infection.
Tell me how many of the 10,500 infected today you think will die? If you think it is closer to 1% because of the reasons you gave then you’re saying that there will be half as many dead a week from now then today.
I’m not trying to convince you of anything. I hope you’re right. There’s just zero evidence from anywhere to support your conclusion. That doesn’t mean you might not be right either.
I already answered your question. But again, the math is not as simple as you are making it out to be. There is a finite number of people "at risk". We are increasing the number of ventilators. We are social distancing. We are locking things down.
Your math is not accounting for any of that or at least it doesn't appear to be. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Shut up Pete. If you don't know what is going on that is your problem. I guarantee you that most people do. Donger and him have been going back and forth at each other.
Take your own advice and put me on ignore or remove yourself.
So Pete and Ringleader going back and forth doesn't bother you a bit? 10x more than me and Donger? Got it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER: Mitigation will only take hold after the second week. Again, this is proven out by the data on hand.
You have absolutely no way of knowing that. For you to even to begin to know that you would have to know the exact number of people who are infected, asymptomatic or otherwise, and you don't. None of us do. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Shut up Pete. If you don't know what is going on that is your problem. I guarantee you that most people do. Donger and him have been going back and forth at each other. Take your own advice and put me on ignore or remove yourself.
