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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
TLO 11:27 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Wheres Dr. Fauci? Two days in a row he hasn't been at the press conference. The most knowledgeable person on the planet with infectious diseases isn't there. He's the only one not lying to us or giving us a bunch of BS. #wheresfauci
He was on CNN last night.
[Reply]
Rain Man 11:27 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I'm also curious what the mortality timelines are.

Does it appear that the people who are popping positive then dying are dying within 72 hours or are they limping along for 6-8 days before dying?

If it's the former, the death rate is unlikely to spike in any meaningful way - they're already baked into the pie so to speak. If it's the latter, it'll probably continue to decline a bit as the denominator gets bigger before the deaths start to result, but then we'll see an inexorable climb towards those spooky 7-8% mortality rates that have people so fearful of the Italy situation.
If you look at this site that's been mentioned before https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6, the ratio of deaths to closed cases (dead or recovered) is currently at 9.9 percent. When we first found the web site, it was at 6.3 percent. While it doesn't directly answer your question, the fact that it's rising means that death occurs faster than recovery in cases where one or the other has happened. So right now, the sad stories are disproportionately high compared to happy stories. Once we get the spread under control, that'll reverse.
[Reply]
dirk digler 11:27 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
via GIPHY


[Reply]
petegz28 11:28 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Dude. Are you just completely incapable of making a post in this thread that doesn't try to coyly allude to government failure? Get the **** out of the thread if you can't help yourself.
The sad part is the media is spending just as much if not even more time on the politics of this.
[Reply]
petegz28 11:29 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Rain Man:
If you look at this site that's been mentioned before https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6, the ratio of deaths to closed cases (dead or recovered) is currently at 9.9 percent. When we first found the web site, it was at 6.3 percent. While it doesn't directly answer your question, the fact that it's rising means that death occurs faster than recovery in cases where one or the other has happened. So right now, the sad stories are disproportionately high compared to happy stories. Once we get the spread under control, that'll reverse.
Or once we start seeing cases en masse recover. It does take longer to list cases as "recovered" so spikes will happen there.
[Reply]
DaFace 11:31 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
The sad part is the media is spending just as much if not even more time on the politics of this.
I don't really care. I barely watch the news. I (like many) am primarily keeping up on everything in this thread.

I just couldn't care less about who is to blame in all of this. It's devastating people around the world from all walks of life and all forms of government.

Just keep the blame game shit out of this thread. It shouldn't be that hard.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 11:31 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP:
Howard County MD has a 5-year old one critical condition
Where's the info on that one? Curious to learn a bit more.

From what I can see she's tested positive for it, but I have seen no indication that she's been announced as critical.
[Reply]
petegz28 11:32 AM 03-19-2020
Italy has now surpassed China in deaths. There is something wrong going on over there.
[Reply]
Mennonite 11:34 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:

I just couldn't care less about who is to blame in all of this.
whew - that's a relief. I was a little nervous about posting my raw bat salad recipe in the FMB thread, but if you're cool with it...
[Reply]
ShowtimeSBMVP 11:35 AM 03-19-2020

STOP REPORTING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS STATISTICS AS IF THEY ARE ACCURATE. https://t.co/Ro01qnw8cD

— Isaac Stone Fish (@isaacstonefish) March 19, 2020

[Reply]
SAUTO 11:35 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
I don't really care. I barely watch the news. I (like many) am primarily keeping up on everything in this thread.

I just couldn't care less about who is to blame in all of this. It's devastating people around the world from all walks of life and all forms of government.

Just keep the blame game shit out of this thread. It shouldn't be that hard.
totally agreed
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 11:36 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Or once we start seeing cases en masse recover. It does take longer to list cases as "recovered" so spikes will happen there.
I've recommended it twice, but seriously - everyone needs to go look at the animated versions of those 'flatten the curve' simulations.

They do an outstanding job of truly demonstrating how all that will work, especially the ones that also have trackers at the bottom that show the respective 'group' populations.

As you noted, the infected group explodes initially, then you see a slight tick up in deaths, then a slight tick in recoveries, all the while infections are climbing and staying well above both on the scales. Then over a period of weeks, the scales invert, recovery exceeds infected and deaths start to really trickle off as a proportion of the cases.

If one puts stock in the 'curve' at all, go find some of the animated simulations.
[Reply]
TLO 11:37 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by ShowtimeSBMVP:
Care to summarize? I'm not registering to read an article.
[Reply]
Bwana 11:37 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Dude. Are you just completely incapable of making a post in this thread that doesn't try to coyly allude to government failure? Get the **** out of the thread if you can't help yourself.
^
[Reply]
loochy 11:38 AM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I'm also curious what the mortality timelines are.

Does it appear that the people who are popping positive then dying are dying within 72 hours or are they limping along for 6-8 days before dying?

If it's the former, the death rate is unlikely to spike in any meaningful way - they're already baked into the pie so to speak. If it's the latter, it'll probably continue to decline a bit as the denominator gets bigger before the deaths start to result, but then we'll see an inexorable climb towards those spooky 7-8% mortality rates that have people so fearful of the Italy situation.
It's the latter. We'll need to wait a bit unti we really know.
[Reply]
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