This is legitimate opinion but it’s all about probability or likelihood of success. Of course you can get a tyreek in the 5th, once every 10 years. But if you go back and look at drafts most of these picks are jags or busts and then a DK Metcalf hits big. That’s why so many of us are pounding the table for jameson bc his burst, change of direction and top end speed pop of the screen. You can see the fit with mahomes and the success of Bama wrs in the past with the training they have at bama and reasonable predict with a high probability that jameson is the next Dk metcalf kind of player from a production stand point for the chiefs.

Pickens on the other hand, just as a comparison, is not a good route runner, undisciplined and unpredictable, makes slow cuts, he has speed but it’s build up speed as a long strider and doesn’t have that turbo button to create separation. It’s hard for me to predict the same kind of success with Pickens. Could it happen, of course, but just trying to predict the highest likelihood. Jameson had 1600 yards and 15 tds in the sec for a reason. He’s electric and a great fit for the offense.


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It's not really an opinion though. I just showed you in another thread some recent history of the hit rate in the 2nd being near identical to the first round for good receivers. It's a bad strategy to go up and get a WR just to get one in the 1st round. If a guy falls to you that you like, go ahead and take him. If one doesn't, you have a couple of shots in the 2nd as well. This is a pretty nice draft overall for WRs.

I'd say I'm 100% against the Chiefs moving up for a WR in the 1st if it costs more than a 3rd round pick and I would absolutely not do it for an injured player. WR is one of the highest bust positions in the draft. If you're going up for a guy, you better be as certain as you possibly can about the guy. An ACL tear brings an awful lot of uncertainty into the equation. You're far better having those 2 darts to throw at the position in all honesty. At least you have the opportunity to hedge your bets.
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I could be wrong. We will see. I posted a long reasoning on why I think it’s worth it at the wr position in the mega thread. I’ll sum it up, over 95% of wrs drafted don’t become a wr2 or better in the first year. So, if you love a guy and he’s a fit and been developed by the best college for creating great wrs in the nfl recently, go get him. He also had almost 1600 yards and 15 tds in an injury shortened year in the sec. I believe Jameson’s skill set and preparation makes him a success and that higher probability is worth flipping a 3rd, 4th and 4th next year to move up 10 spots to get him if he’s there.


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well, here's the thing though-he's not likely to be 100% physically in enough time for him to put up WR2 numbers under any circumstances in 2022. Not in this offense. Which negates the whole argument.
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I agree with Crow.

And as for the speed being gone after the first, I haven't seen Pierce or Watson mocked all that often before the 2nd, and nobody's faster than those two guys.

I'm for taking at least one WR in this draft, and probably double dipping, and probably doing THAT early, in those first two rounds.

If we took two DL and two WR in the first four picks I'd be thrilled.

But after the last draft, I'm not going to complain until I see the product on the field.
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Only WR under contract in 2023 is MVS, right?

Double dipping is probably a necessity.
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Trading up for Williams would be a complete waste of resources.
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Yeah, I mean-like I've said, if they do it I would be surprised. It doesn't seem prudent, and the Hill trade was all about being prudent, right?

I mean you could get a Pierce/Watson/Dotson/whoever you like plus a Sam Williams/Cam Thomas/whoever you like or you could trade up to get Williams who won't be much help in 2022.

It just doesn't seem prudent.
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Exactly.
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I know I said Olave is the guy that I would trade up for in another thread, but I have a hard time finding something I don't like about Watson.

For a guy who is a legitimate big and physical receiver to have the speed, quick twitch, and explosiveness he does is just really rare.

And he's not just a physical specimen. He runs good routes (because of that rare quickness), and he's physical.

He can do all the "big-guy receiver" things (high-point, back shoulder, wall off on slants/over the middle). But he can do "normal-guy receiver" things, too (double moves, multiple release, set up routes with foot work). And he has that rare explosiveness that will let him be a big-play threat, too.

If they take him with 29 or 30, I won't be surprised or complain. They could even move up a bit to nab him and I wouldn't be upset about it.
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I like Watson’s athletic ability a lot also. His ability & testing numbers does show up on tape. Can he beat press from an nfl corner? Idk? Questions like that are why I like jameson. But I love Watson’s ceiling. I like him better than Dotson for sure.


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How many NFL corners do you think Williams was facing in true press man, even at Alabama?

Watson performed well at the senior bowl, which featured a lot of future pros, and dominated his 1x1 reps.

Those future pros included:

Roger McReary
Zyon McCollum
Alontae Taylor
Coby Bryant
Mario Goodrich
Cam Taylor-Britt
Josh Williams
Mario Goodrich
Derion Kendrick

^ those are all guys expected to go by the end of day 2/beginning of day 3 in April.
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Choir here. I love the kid.
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I agree. I just watched that today. Watson is warming up to me. I saw his in season highlights and most of the time no one was near him. His speed and change of direction are real. He’s not just a combine warrior. that senior bowl video shows his quickness and long arms against the press. He’s got a lot of work to do but I like him a lot. I’m beginning to like picking him at 30 if burks and jameson are gone. I want a high ceiling, wr1 in this draft and Watson could be it. Watsons numbers and competition scared me initially.


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Watson has never been pressed in any of the video I can find. He has free release to run by people and catch completely uncontested catches. I see zero contact as well. His resume is lean. He has straight line speed on his resume and a terrific combine showing (in shorts) . Neat.
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