I have charted every snap by a Chiefs quarterback (with one or two games missing) since the beginning of the 2013 season. That’s not a brag, it’s more an admission of sickness. I know that the way stats are tabulated has serious holes in determining how well a quarterback played in a given game (or two, or three, or more), and I cannot help myself. I have to know how Kansas City’s quarterback actually performed.
I’ve charted great games and I’ve charted bad games. I’ve charted non-Chiefs quarterbacks as a frame of reference. The goal is always to find a way to isolate the things that actually measure quarterback play (accuracy, good decisions, pocket presence, etc.) and quantify it as best we can.
And on the way, one thing has always been true; No matter how well a quarterback performed, there was always room for considerable improvement. There was no such thing as the perfect game.
I’m not sure that’s true anymore. Because on Sunday, against the Buffalo Bills, Patrick Mahomes played the closest thing to a perfect game that I’ve ever seen from an NFL quarterback (including him) in nearly a decade of doing this job. Let’s talk about that.
Originally Posted by Wisconsin_Chief:
This is the perfect word to describe him. I had been using the "it" factor, but it's much more than that because Allen definitely has "it" too, and Mahomes just leveled up on him.
He is truly blessed by hands of the football Gods. They just want to see him win, end of conversation.
Brady has been way luckier. The fumble in the snow. The INT bailed out by Dee Ford. Mahomes’ OL gets wiped out right before a huge game against Brady. Kyle Shanahan & Atlanta have some of the worst clock management ever to give away a huge lead. Pete Carroll with a terrible playcall on the goal line.
Hell, we saw it again last week. Rams almost gave away the game on silly turnovers. Brady sucked (ESPN QBR of 14/100) but the Rams still almost gave him the game on turnovers. Last year, he turned it over multiple times against the Packers and Aaron freaking Rodgers in a MVP season did nothing to take advantage of Brady’s mistakes.
Finally: Brady got drafted by the best defensive coach of all-time. The defense has played a huge role in his success. Mahomes has had shaky or terrible defenses backing him his entire career, going back to high school where he lost multiple playoff games that he scored 50+ points. Lost a ton of games in college while scoring 40-50+ points. We all know what Joe Burrow & Josh Allen did to the KC defense recently. We know what Brady did to the defense in 2 huge playoff games. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Andoverer:
As a longtime Chiefs fan who has seen good and horrible over 5 decades, I appreciate every single moment we get to have Patrick as our qb. What a gift.
Along with Reid, Kelce, Hill and all the rest of course. It is a team after all, but....
Pity the person that will have to follow him when his career is over here.
Hey, cool avatar. Between you me and stumppy, our secret plan of turning this into border collie planet is coming along quite nicely..... [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
Brady has been way luckier. The fumble in the snow. The INT bailed out by Dee Ford. Mahomes’ OL gets wiped out right before a huge game against Brady. Kyle Shanahan & Atlanta have some of the worst clock management ever to give away a huge lead. Pete Carroll with a terrible playcall on the goal line.
Hell, we saw it again last week. Rams almost gave away the game on silly turnovers. Brady sucked (ESPN QBR of 14/100) but the Rams still almost gave him the game on turnovers. Last year, he turned it over multiple times against the Packers and Aaron freaking Rodgers in a MVP season did nothing to take advantage of Brady’s mistakes.
Finally: Brady got drafted by the best defensive coach of all-time. The defense has played a huge role in his success. Mahomes has had shaky or terrible defenses backing him his entire career, going back to high school where he lost multiple playoff games that he scored 50+ points. Lost a ton of games in college while scoring 40-50+ points. We all know what Joe Burrow & Josh Allen did to the KC defense recently. We know what Brady did to the defense in 2 huge playoff games.
Thorough post and yet you left one luck factor out that I always bring up to Pats type fans. How many of Brady's classic QBWINZZZ came from unbelievably epic kicks by Adam Vinateiri? If he misses a couple of those kicks, Brady just didnt do enough, and Bledsoe might have taken back over.
Then later, he had GOAT kicker candidate of his time, Gotskowski to KEEP giving him that kicking luck that Brady kept getting the credit for. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
Hey, cool avatar. Between you me and stumppy, our secret plan of turning this into border collie planet is coming along quite nicely.....
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
Thorough post and yet you left one luck factor out that I always bring up to Pats type fans. How many of Brady's classic QBWINZZZ came from unbelievably epic kicks by Adam Vinateiri? If he misses a couple of those kicks, Brady just didnt do enough, and Bledsoe might have taken back over.
Then later, he had GOAT kicker candidate of his time, Gotskowski to KEEP giving him that kicking luck that Brady kept getting the credit for.
Yep, Brady has been pretty damn lucky in that regard. Mahomes is no slouch in this category of luck with Butker nailing some very clutch kicks through the years. Thankfully he was able to redeem himself in the final FG attempt against Buffalo after missing on 4 points earlier in the game. Huge redemption there. The earlier missed kicks almost cost them the game. [Reply]
I wish Butker's kick would have won it instead of tied. Then we'd still get the greatest game ever but not have to hear every national pundit whining about the OT rules.
But I wonder if the Bills play differently if they're down by 1 or 2? I bet they play tighter and aren't as terrified of a Hail Mary type play. [Reply]
Man what an incredible read. Thanks for posting that. Loved this tweet, really puts what we were blessed to witness Sunday night into perspective.
Most @nflfastR win probability added in a single playoff game, 1999-2021: 1. PATRICK MAHOMES, +160% (last night) 2. Jake Delhomme, +138% ('03 Div) 3. JOSH ALLEN, +131% (last night)
Originally Posted by Molitoth:
I'd like to see the same writeup on Josh Allen for that game to see how it compares.
Someone in the comments mention that and Seth said it might be an offseason project for him. It would be a cool game to look back at during the long wait for another season to start. [Reply]