ChiefsPlanet Mobile
Page 38 of 84
« First < 283435363738 3940414248 > Last »
Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>*** 2022 Mock Draft Megathread ***
duncan_idaho 12:45 PM 11-23-2021
Got a mock? Pop it in this thread. Include a picture if you want. Explain your reasoning if you want. Talk about your crushes... if you want.

See a good "pro" mock? Link it up in here and I'll add it to the OP.

Duncan's latest mock

Site
The Draft Network This mock seems to be the most accurate site right now, so I go with this one. I don't pay for it, so no trades here. The plan is for this to be my last mock. I'm going to do it differently, though. I'm running 3 scenarios, and eschewing the 7th round picks, which I would use on a big swings on athleticism and potential. Lotto tickets. James Houston IV is one of them. Note: I used PFF to simulate the trade action, then manually backed up in the 2 "trade" drafts to make selections. Laborious, but gives you best of both worlds, IMO. I think PFF's trade tool is the best, but its board is whack.

Draft slot: 29

Scenario 1: The Chiefs sit pat with their picks and don't make any moves at all. Seems the least likely, but hey...
1.29 | George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue.
1.30 | Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota.
2.50 | George Pickens, WR, Georgia.
2.62 | Travis Jones, DT, UConn.
3.94 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State.
3.103(Comp for Poles) | Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State.
4.121 | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati.
4.135 | Velus Jones, Jr., Tennessee

Scenario 1 Debrief:
So, sitting and waiting to see what comes to me was pretty successful here. The Chiefs FLOOD the defensive line with reinforcements, including at least 1 ready-made starter and two guys who should - at minimum - be in 50/50 rotations at their spots by year end. The Chiefs still get a big outside WR with tantalizing potential. They add some crazy athletic small-school guys, and a mid-round corner who just fits in the system, and a dynamo return man who might be more at WR.

This looks pretty good. Though I have a hard time believing Karlaftis just falls to 29...

Scenario 2: The Chiefs get aggressive and trade up. But for what? In this case, let's go wide receiver. In this run, Kansas City trades picks 29, 62, and a 2023 3rd to Houston for pick 13 and a 2023 4th, because they ARE as obsessed with a WR as people expect and are aggressive to go get him when the board falls right. They then trade BACK from 30 to 35 with the Jets, also including pick 94 in order to get 69 back. Then, last but not least, KC gets aggressive one more time and moves 103 and 121 for 85 from New England, leaving the Chiefs with 6 picks in the first four rounds.
1.13 | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama.
2.35 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State.
2.50 | Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor.
3.69 | Zachary Carter, DT, Florida.
3.85 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
4.135 | Jaylen Watson, CB, Washington State

Scenario 2 Debrief:
I'm not saying KC should do this or even that I think they will (more on that in a few minutes). I'm just saying, man, what will it look like if the Chiefs get aggressive a few times AND are doing the big move for a WR? In this scenario, KC obviously believes Williams is a game-changer at the NFL level and is taking a small 2022 hit to make 2023+ better. The defensive line still gets reinforced, but the reinforcements are all a shade worse than the sit-pat draft option. If you like Kingsley Enagbare or Josh PAscal more than Thomas, I get it and wouldn't quibble at one of those guys instead. Logan Hall, too. Pitre is such a screaming perfect fit for KC's D. Carter is a great physical talent you can dream about coaching up. Williams' utility is known and gives them a true RE option to pair against their higher-drafted bigger guy. Watson is a developmental corner.

I don't love it. I think Pitre makes the secondary a lot better and makes it easier to move on from Thornhill after 22. They have improved the defensive rotation, though one of the DEs would need to outperform expectations in Year 1 to get it to the same level as Scenario 1. In all, giving up the 2 extra selections in the top 4 rounds hurts the depth you can build, but I think it's more like what KC will do.

Scenario 3: Same movements as #2
1.13 | Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State.
2.35 | Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State.
2.50 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
3.69 | Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati.
3.85 | Martin Emerson, CB, Miss. State.
4.135 | Braxton Jones, T, Southern Utah

Scenario 3 Debrief:
This is the type of situation where I see KC paying the price to move up... if Johnson falls this far, I'd be shocked if KC isn't aggressively moving up. With this run, I take a risky but high upside WR in Watson (but you could sub in Pickens or Jahan Dotson or Tolbert or Metchie or Skyy Moore or really any of those tier 2 guys here if you prefer). The secondary reinforcements aren't flashy but are good fits.

In this one, I think the plan has to become adding either another safety or corner in free agency before the season. Ideally, it's someone who can handle the slot and let Sneed thriver on the outside. The DL gets a major boost and some potential star power in Johnson and Williams, and the OL gets another T option and potential long-term starter to develop.

Having completed the exercise and looking at the scenariors, I like the first one the most. But it really does come down to how the board breaks.

Older mocks
Spoiler!

[Reply]
Stryker 08:27 PM 03-29-2022
Curious question, what if Mahomes has input on who he would like WR wise in the draft? Or any player for that matter? Do you think he has an input in the draft is my question? Would Veach consider his thoughts? Like I said, just curious on your thoughts.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 08:35 PM 03-29-2022
Originally Posted by Stryker:
Curious question, what if Mahomes has input on who he would like WR wise in the draft? Or any player for that matter? Do you think he has an input in the draft is my question? Would Veach consider his thoughts? Like I said, just curious on your thoughts.
I'm sure they talk. I mean it would be weird if they didn't.
[Reply]
Stryker 08:46 PM 03-29-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I'm sure they talk. I mean it would be weird if they didn't.
I agree but like I said, was just curious.
[Reply]
kcbubb 10:42 PM 03-29-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
No way man. The smart move is to trade 2-3 three of our picks to move up in the top 15 for a WR with a torn ACL.
Absolutely. Go for the home run instead of picking two or three jag wrs or busts. We may have a shot to get a legitimate game breaker at wr in the draft with trading up about 10 spots with a 3rd, 4th and a 4th next year. Jamesonís gonna miss 8 games! So what, get a game breaking talent rather than pick a couple extra average players. Jameson is our best shot for an elite talent. You want to pick jalen tolbert in the second. Give me a break. He barely gets separation against Georgia southern. We can get pretty good players in free agency cheap. Go get a great wr in the draft.
[Reply]
BossChief 07:09 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by Stryker:
Curious question, what if Mahomes has input on who he would like WR wise in the draft? Or any player for that matter? Do you think he has an input in the draft is my question? Would Veach consider his thoughts? Like I said, just curious on your thoughts.
Mahomes got input into the Clyde pick, so Iím sure he will have input on picks this year as well. To some extent, at least.
[Reply]
duncan_idaho 08:00 AM 03-30-2022
The more I think about it, the more I think there IS a WR I would be cool with trading up for.

And it isn't Jameson Williams.

It's Chris Olave.
[Reply]
BossChief 08:32 AM 03-30-2022
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!

29. George Karlaftis EDGE Purdue
30. David Ojabo EDGE Michigan
50. Chad Muma LB Wyoming
62. Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan
94. Christian Watson WR North Dakota State
103. Mario Goodrich CB Clemson
121. Chris Hinton DT Michigan
135. Zyon McCollum CB Sam Houston State
233. Scott Nelson S Wisconsin
243. Kana'i Mauga LB USC
251. Nasir Greer S Wake Forest
259. Ali Fayad EDGE Western Michigan
[Reply]
BossChief 08:35 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
The more I think about it, the more I think there IS a WR I would be cool with trading up for.

And it isn't Jameson Williams.

It's Chris Olave.
Why and what are you willing to give up to go get him?

I guess I donít see a huge difference between him and a guy like Skyy and for what it would cost to get Olave, you might get Skyy and a Sam Williams/Cam ThomasÖso I donít see the value in moving upÖbut I can be convinced otherwise.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 08:46 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by kcbubb:
Absolutely. Go for the home run instead of picking two or three jag wrs or busts. We may have a shot to get a legitimate game breaker at wr in the draft with trading up about 10 spots with a 3rd, 4th and a 4th next year. Jamesonís gonna miss 8 games! So what, get a game breaking talent rather than pick a couple extra average players. Jameson is our best shot for an elite talent. You want to pick jalen tolbert in the second. Give me a break. He barely gets separation against Georgia southern. We can get pretty good players in free agency cheap. Go get a great wr in the draft.
Man I'm not sure how many times you have to be shown in how many different ways that elite WR's come from more than top 15 overall picks in order for you to digest the information. Lemme give you just one concrete example:

Davante Adams was a 2nd round pick (#53 overall.) He was, for what, a week? The highest paid WR in history.

He was the 9th WR taken in his draft. He went after Sammy Watkins, and after Kelvin Benjamin, and Landry, and Jordan Matthews, and Cooks, and Marquis Lee, and Beckham, and Mike Evans. (The next season, the current highest paid WR in football would be drafted in the 5th round by our KC Chiefs.)

Some of those guys who went before Adams have had really nice careers; but is he a JAG because they got picked earlier? Can you believe Kelvin fucking Benjamin was deemed a better prospect than Davante Adams? He was. It's true. Can you imagined if you traded UP for Jordan Matthews instead of just staying put and taking Adams?

Lots of talent in this draft. The talking heads don't know dick. Mel Kiper is wrong more than he's right. None of these guys really know for sure how these kids will work out, and so much of it is SITUATIONAL.

So I wouldn't get too hell bent on "OMG WE HAVE TO REPLACE TYREEK HILL!"

No we don't. We need to draft lots of good football players and develop them. We do that, and we'll be fine.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 08:48 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
Why and what are you willing to give up to go get him?

I guess I donít see a huge difference between him and a guy like Skyy and for what it would cost to get Olave, you might get Skyy and a Sam Williams/Cam ThomasÖso I donít see the value in moving upÖbut I can be convinced otherwise.
I'm 100% in agreement with you.
[Reply]
BossChief 09:05 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I'm 100% in agreement with you.
I donít know anywhere near as much as some here about the scheme similarities of what we do in KC under Andy and what some of these college WRs have been asked to do and how much they can already do to make them able to play sooner than later. Which is a moderately big deal considering the perceived difficulty in learning our system.

Huge playbook. Sight adjustments. Reading defense on the fly to find spots in zones. Ability to run the whole route tree with precision. Beating press. Eye discipline. Footwork. Physicality. Football IQ.

Olave played for a big time school, so itís possible his value is a lot more than Skyy because he can play year one where a guy like Skyy may take a year or more to consistently get on the field. Iím not knowledgeable enough to know the difference between the players, but Iím going to assume the reason Andy and Brett got Juju and MVS is because they see this WR class as talented but needing work to realize potential.
[Reply]
kcbubb 09:46 AM 03-30-2022
I am not explaining myself well. Let me say it this way. WRs bust or are jags often. And rarely produce in the first year. Can you get them late? Of course. But I feel like the odds of jameson doing well are high with what kind of wrs have done well with mahomes. Pm likes speed and separation. So, if you have a guy that you feel is a fit, go get him. The numbers prove it out. This article demonstrates my point. This shows production of wrs in the first year. With Jamesonís skill set and the training from bama with waddle, Devonta, jeudy & Ridley all doing well. I feel like jameson has the highest probability of success and its worth it to trade for him. I believe he will have success like waddle or Devonta smith in his first year. You guys thinking that we draft two guys late and they help us next year, that wonít happen. The numbers show that more than 95% of the time rookies wonít be a wr2 or better in their first year. See below.

https://www.ffastronauts.com/amp/rookie-wr-bust-rate

Number of wide receivers drafted by year
2019 - 25
2018 - 32
2017 - 31
2016 - 31
Total 2016 - 2019: 119
Number of drafted wide receivers performing as WR2 or better in their first year
2019 - 1
2018 - 0
2017 - 1
2016 - 1
The rookie wide receiver bust rate shows how likely an owner is to draft a rookie wide receiver that doesnít perform better than WR2 or better.
Rookie wide receiver bust rate by year.
2019 - 24 / 25 = 0.96 x 100 = 96%
In 2019, 96% of the rookie wide receivers were busts and did not score as a WR2 or better.
2018 - 32 / 32 = 1 x 100 = 100%
In 2018, 100% of rookie wide receivers were busts and none scored as a WR2 or better.
2017 - 30 / 31 = 0.9677 x 100 = 96.77%
In 2017, 96.77% of the rookie wide receivers were busts and did not score as a WR2 or better.
2016 - 30 / 31 = 0.9677 x 100 = 96.77%
In 2016, 96.77% of the rookie wide receivers were busts and did not score as a WR2 or better.
From 2016-2019 the average rookie wide receiver bust rate was
(96+100+96.77+96.77) / 4 = 97.39%
From the numbers, rookie wide receivers are not a safe bet for production in their first year. However, those that performed well in their first year carried WR2 production into their future years in most cases.



Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Man I'm not sure how many times you have to be shown in how many different ways that elite WR's come from more than top 15 overall picks in order for you to digest the information. Lemme give you just one concrete example:

Davante Adams was a 2nd round pick (#53 overall.) He was, for what, a week? The highest paid WR in history.

He was the 9th WR taken in his draft. He went after Sammy Watkins, and after Kelvin Benjamin, and Landry, and Jordan Matthews, and Cooks, and Marquis Lee, and Beckham, and Mike Evans. (The next season, the current highest paid WR in football would be drafted in the 5th round by our KC Chiefs.)

Some of those guys who went before Adams have had really nice careers; but is he a JAG because they got picked earlier? Can you believe Kelvin ****ing Benjamin was deemed a better prospect than Davante Adams? He was. It's true. Can you imagined if you traded UP for Jordan Matthews instead of just staying put and taking Adams?

Lots of talent in this draft. The talking heads don't know dick. Mel Kiper is wrong more than he's right. None of these guys really know for sure how these kids will work out, and so much of it is SITUATIONAL.

So I wouldn't get too hell bent on "OMG WE HAVE TO REPLACE TYREEK HILL!"

No we don't. We need to draft lots of good football players and develop them. We do that, and we'll be fine.

[Reply]
duncan_idaho 09:49 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
Why and what are you willing to give up to go get him?

I guess I donít see a huge difference between him and a guy like Skyy and for what it would cost to get Olave, you might get Skyy and a Sam Williams/Cam ThomasÖso I donít see the value in moving upÖbut I can be convinced otherwise.
Why: Because of his total polish and readiness. I think he gives you the highest floor and also has a ceiling near really anyone available in the draft. He's an excellent route runner with ideal athletic traits and good size.

What: One of KC's 3rds this year, and a 3rd next year.

That should be enough to get somewhere in the 20-ish range. I wouldn't go higher in terms of cost, but I wouldn't shake my fist about moving up for him.

All that said, though, I think KC can, will and likely should stay at 29 and 30.
[Reply]
htismaqe 09:56 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
Man I'm not sure how many times you have to be shown in how many different ways that elite WR's come from more than top 15 overall picks in order for you to digest the information. Lemme give you just one concrete example:

Davante Adams was a 2nd round pick (#53 overall.) He was, for what, a week? The highest paid WR in history.

He was the 9th WR taken in his draft. He went after Sammy Watkins, and after Kelvin Benjamin, and Landry, and Jordan Matthews, and Cooks, and Marquis Lee, and Beckham, and Mike Evans. (The next season, the current highest paid WR in football would be drafted in the 5th round by our KC Chiefs.)

Some of those guys who went before Adams have had really nice careers; but is he a JAG because they got picked earlier? Can you believe Kelvin fucking Benjamin was deemed a better prospect than Davante Adams? He was. It's true. Can you imagined if you traded UP for Jordan Matthews instead of just staying put and taking Adams?

Lots of talent in this draft. The talking heads don't know dick. Mel Kiper is wrong more than he's right. None of these guys really know for sure how these kids will work out, and so much of it is SITUATIONAL.

So I wouldn't get too hell bent on "OMG WE HAVE TO REPLACE TYREEK HILL!"

No we don't. We need to draft lots of good football players and develop them. We do that, and we'll be fine.
You'll never get through to him.

I commented yesterday about it but notice that Bubb always talks about the WR's as "London, Olave, Dotson, Watson, and JAMESON".

It's obviously a draft crush thing because it's the only WR he consistently calls by his first name while all others are by last name. It's personal for him.
[Reply]
The Franchise 09:57 AM 03-30-2022
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
You'll never get through to him.

I commented yesterday about it but notice that Bubb always talks about the WR's as "London, Olave, Dotson, Watson, and JAMESON".

It's obviously a draft crush thing because it's the only WR he consistently calls by his first name while all others are by last name. It's personal for him.
He slept on it though and he's still in on Jameson.
[Reply]
Page 38 of 84
« First < 283435363738 3940414248 > Last »
Up