Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by TLO:
Comparing H1N1 and this virus is a future exercise. I wanted to try and do the same in the beginning, but they're not comparable.
True, we had 1MM confirmed cases of H1N1 in the same 72 day timeframe that we now have 12K or so cases of Covid-19 confirmed.
Either we have way more cases than we know of Covid-19 which means its not nearly as lethal as stated, or we don't and its not nearly as contagious.
I don't see how that's disputable.
Anyway that will be my last post on my opinion of "numbers". [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I disagree. By your own theoretical numbers we won't have near 16,000 deaths nor would we without the lock down which is what H1N1 had.
You disagree that SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2 to 3? You disagree that the fatality rates is much higher than H1N1?
I don't think we'll have the super scary numbers that some are putting out there, no. And that's because we are locking down.
And, I'm well-aware that we'll never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't locked things down, and some people will say, "See! No big deal! Overreaction." [Reply]
Travel Advisory: Level 4 - The Department of State advises U.S. citizens to avoid all international travel due to the global impact of #COVID19. In countries where commercial departure options remain available, U.S. citizens who live in the US should arrange for immediate return. pic.twitter.com/MydSzFffYd
My 10 year old (at the time) was and still is a HUGE Journey fan. On Christmas Eve, 2018, I took her to the store to buy food for Christmas Dinner and we ran into the One & Only, Steve Perry!
He was extremely nice and gracious and even took a few pictures with my daughter. She printed out the photo of her and Steve and put it on the cover of her school notebook, used it as a screensaver, etc.
I've run into tons of musicians (most of whom I've known) and actors/actresses there. :-)
So cool. I would have loved that too. We stayed at Universal Studios/Hotel.
Ate at the In and Out Burger too that was mentioned. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
You disagree that SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2 to 3? You disagree that the fatality rates is much higher than H1N1?
I don't think we'll have the super scary numbers that some are putting out there, no. And that's because we are locking down.
And, I'm well-aware that we'll never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't locked things down, and some people will say, "See! No big deal! Overreaction."
I'm not getting into the numbers again as I said I wouldn't but my opinion is this-
If you are going to crush the economy and put people out of business and cause massive economic hardship to millions of people over this, "Better safe than sorry" alone isn't a good enough reason. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I'm not getting into the numbers again as I said I wouldn't but my opinion is this-
If you are going to crush the economy and put people out of business and cause massive economic hardship to millions of people over this, "Better safe than sorry" alone isn't a good enough reason.
Of course you aren't going to get into the numbers, because they show that this bug is more contagious and deadly than H1N1, and that's why we are locking down when we didn't then, which was your question. Those numbers ARE the reason. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Of course you aren't going to get into the numbers, because they show that this bug is more contagious and deadly than H1N1, and that's why we are locking down when we didn't then, which was your question. Those numbers ARE the reason.
How is Covid-19 more contagious than H1N1 if 975,000 more people had H1N1 in the same timeframe from the start of the outbreak to day 72?
Originally Posted by Dunit35:
We’ve been eyeing a Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT for some time. If FCA comes up with a zero percent financing deal it might push us over the edge. Best I could find was for a Compass or Renegade. A huge negative is there isn’t an SRT that matches our wants in our state and hasn’t been since we started looking.
I've had my eye on a few Chrysler 300 S' for quite some time now. I really like the facelift post-2015 they got.
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
How is Covid-19 more contagious than H1N1 if 975,000 more people had H1N1 in the same timeframe from the start of the outbreak to day 72?
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
How is Covid-19 more contagious than H1N1 if 975,000 more people had H1N1 in the same timeframe from the start of the outbreak to day 72?
Explain that.
H1N1 originated in North America, as a start. It took two months for COVID-19 to get to the U.S. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
H1N1 originated in the North America, as a start. It took two months for COVID-19 to get to the U.S.
Sure but his point still stands. We haven't topped 200k yet (That we know) at this time in H1N1 we had over a million in the world infected.
So it really break down to either China Virus is alot less deadly and more people have it than we know by a factor of 5. Or its not a easy to spread as H1N1 thus far. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
You disagree that SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2 to 3? You disagree that the fatality rates is much higher than H1N1?
I don't think we'll have the super scary numbers that some are putting out there, no. And that's because we are locking down.
And, I'm well-aware that we'll never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't locked things down, and some people will say, "See! No big deal! Overreaction."
Fatality rates based on what? Known cases or estimated cases? We have no idea how many people actually have this now. Especially when you read reports that some people have it and don't even know they have it. That most cases are mild with some not showing any signs of having it. The more people that have this the lower the fatality rate. I think the number of people who have it or have had it is much higher than what is reported. [Reply]
