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13 Seconds Lounge>Sandbox Simulations is open for business! Sign up now!
Rain Man 04:29 PM 02-24-2019
Not available in stores! Buy now! Special price of only $1 for a limited time only. We're up and running!

Go to www.sandboxsimulations.com to sign up. (You can learn more about the game as well.)

For the time being, we set the price to $1, and we can't limit it to just the game testers, so if you're interested, you'll also get the $1 price. Just sign up.

This is a fresh reset, so everyone will have new teams and we'll do a new draft.

Also, please give us any feedback about what you like or don't like, and how we can improve navigation. We've updated all of the systems, so there's a chance that errors are lurking somewhere, but we think we're good to go now. Let us know if something bad happens to you.
[Reply]
lewdog 02:04 PM 11-23-2019
Originally Posted by TambaBerry:
also when is next game? I have my better DE available this week and cant put ghim in the lineup
This. I adjusted my game plan for the shitty team I play next but my roster doesn't appear to be changed from week 1?
[Reply]
cdcox 03:35 PM 11-23-2019
Ok, you can set your lineup for week 2, games will simulate on Monday around 8:00 EST.

The software was supposed to send an email, but I don't think it went out. Let me know if you got one.
[Reply]
cdcox 04:05 PM 11-23-2019
Okay, emails went out and will do so for each game.
[Reply]
wheeler08 04:12 PM 11-23-2019
I got it (email)
[Reply]
TambaBerry 04:14 PM 11-23-2019
I got an email
[Reply]
cdcox 04:16 PM 11-23-2019
Thanks for the confirmation, guys.
[Reply]
cdcox 12:33 AM 11-25-2019
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yeah, looks like a 'fair' sack rate is 1 sack for every 3.75-4 pressures. Granted, some guys are just better at finishing a play, so every team may be a little different in that regard, but that should be a balllpark return on a leaguewide basis.

So w/ 27 total sacks last week that would take roughly 105 pressures on a 'fair' basis. There were WAY more pressures around the league last week.

Now I can't really find a way to add total pressures last but I can come up with a sort of ballpark pressure rate and multiply that by the 751 pass attempts in the league in week 1. You run those figures (understanding there's some fudge in the figurin') and you yield an overall league pressure rate of roughly 24.25%. That's not actually a bad figure but still a little low compared to the 28% pressure rate we saw in the NFL last season.

Let's just assume that last week the overall pressure rate was roughly 25%. There were 751 pass attempts so there should have been roughly 188 pressures. At 1 sack for every 4 pressure (which is conservative), there should've been 47 sacks last week. Run at at 3.75 and you're at 50. So there should've been somewhere between 47 and 50 sacks last week based on the pressure rate we showed. And 53-56 if you used last seasons actual leaguewide pressure rate of roughly 28%

So yeah, sack rate should be way up. Pressure rate seems about rate or at least in the ballpark (though potentially a tick low, that is not due to the overall figures but mostly just a couple of really bad teams in St. Joseph and Corona who had a 'sub Raiders' figure last week and are likely outliers). It's just that those pressures aren't yielding any sacks.

Now it does seem that pressure does make it difficult for QBs on a rating basis. For instance, Keenum was 6/12 for 71 yards, zero touchdowns and an INT when pressured. That's a 33.68 QB rating (or, y'know - AWFUL). His QB Rating on passes that weren't under pressure was roughly 81.4. That's actually larger than the average NFL difference last season (average 'clean' QB Rating was 99.3 and pressured was 64.6) but is close enough to the ballpark to just chalk it up to low sample sizes and/or a QB who simply isn't very good in Case Keenum so pressure may rattle him more.

Seems like the pass rush stuff MOSTLY worked. Went off at a reasonable rate. Impacted passing efficiency about like it should. It simply didn't yield the sacks it should have. There were about 60% as many sacks as there should've been.
There was a sack problem and I fixed it. Both pressures and sacks were affected. Both should go up from here forward.

I did not have a chance to check the wonky penalty thing or the clock management issue. Please continue to ground truth the simulations and let me know if you see something wrong. I did a ton of "maintenance" between the last time we did this and the current version of the simulator. It is very difficult to find every cascading change, so your help in finding additional issues is appreciated.

Sims Monday night around 8:00 PM eastern.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 12:43 AM 11-25-2019
Originally Posted by cdcox:
There was a sack problem and I fixed it. Both pressures and sacks were affected. Both should go up from here forward.

I did not have a chance to check the wonky penalty thing or the clock management issue. Please continue to ground truth the simulations and let me know if you see something wrong. I did a ton of "maintenance" between the last time we did this and the current version of the simulator. It is very difficult to find every cascading change, so your help in finding additional issues is appreciated.

Sims Monday night around 8:00 PM eastern.
No worries at all - I know it's a hell of an undertaking so I'm not trying to be critical; was mostly curious if my eye test was supportable.

And as a team built on its defense, I figure I'm obviously a bit biased. Fitz and Tannehill ain't taking this ship anywhere with 1 sack/wk of support...

'preciate your efforts, sir(s)...
[Reply]
TambaBerry 07:17 AM 11-25-2019
yes cdcox anything i say in here is not me complaining about you at all. I appreciate what you're doing here and would never talk bad about you. I complain about shit a lot and when i saw my stout defense cause that much pressure and no sacks against baker fucking mayfield i was a little pissed off lol cant wait to see what tonight brings.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 07:22 AM 11-25-2019
Lineup changes for the Anarchy this week due to injury/performance:

Rashod Hill starts at RT
Demarcus Robinson is the third WR
Darian Stewart at SS

Anyway, if we don't beat Derek Carr we have problems.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 08:57 AM 11-25-2019
CD,

I believe there was a brief discussion on this last go 'round and some consideration of it, but is there any way at all to build in a system to determine how your individual OL's are doing or WHO is generating your pressures?

I mean it's a complete guess as to where my pressures are coming from. And while my OL stood up tall last week in pass pro, my run game was hot garbage and it's tough to really get a feel for where improvements could be made.

Now don't get me wrong - my OL isn't exactly loaded with depth (nobody's is) so it probably wouldn't make a huge difference either way, but if only for long-term planning purposes, it would sure be nice to know where my OL is/is not performing. And some grades in the secondary wouldn't hurt either since we aren't sure who's being beat/how.

There's just a LOT of fog of war here, far more than would be expected if you're really looking to deep dive some of this stuff. It's a lot easier to get a feel for skill position guys and everything else seems to kinda vanish into a morass of shrugs...
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 08:58 AM 11-25-2019
Originally Posted by TambaBerry:
yes cdcox anything i say in here is not me complaining about you at all. I appreciate what you're doing here and would never talk bad about you. I complain about shit a lot and when i saw my stout defense cause that much pressure and no sacks against baker fucking mayfield i was a little pissed off lol cant wait to see what tonight brings.
BUILD A CHALLENGE ENGINE, CD!!!!!

I want to see if Tamba and I can Steelers/Ravens one of these games into a bloodbath that impacts both squads for weeks to come...
[Reply]
TambaBerry 06:56 PM 11-25-2019
lets do it so pumped i expect 20 sacks
[Reply]
cdcox 07:01 PM 11-25-2019
Loading the pepper mill now.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 07:30 PM 11-25-2019
Anarchy has a much better gameplan this time around, and we expect to see Darian Stewart laying the wood in the running game.

Kareem Hunt also asked for a larger share of the carries this week, and we intend to oblige.

We may be forced to make radical changes in the front seven if something doesn't improve.
[Reply]
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