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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Donger 02:04 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
And ultimately that's the problem. :-)

All I know is that I'm fully preparing for public pandemonium once we REALLY kick testing into gear across the country. If we see a giant spike in numbers (which we very well may), people are going to lose their shit.

I'm cautiously optimistic by the numbers coming out of Washington though. Once thought to be the epicenter of the outbreak, they are reporting fairly low confirmed cases as the days go by.
Don't forget that we have numbers from countries which had this long before we did. China has flattened at 82,000 cases and 3,200 deaths. We haven't taken the same measures they have, but there's no real reason to think that we'll end up with 1,000,000 cases with the measures we have taken.
[Reply]
Fat Elvis 02:05 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
If we had 1MM cases of H1N1 on day 72 of the outbreak and we didn't shut the country down, and you are saying the only reason we don't have that many positives right now in the US is because of testing, how do you justify the difference?

If we have 1MM current cases then the mortality rate is in alignment with H1N1.
To be clear, I'm not saying that is the only reason why we don't have more positives now. The truth is, without a lot of data, it is really hard exactly where we stand. Based upon the data we *do* have, the R0 value of Covid-19 is up to a full point higher than H1N1 and the death rate seems to be about 10x higher.

I think it may of been Singapore, but they seemed to have a really effective strategy of both limiting movement *and* isolating those who were more vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 prior to potential exposure/infection. They seemed to have emerged relatively unscathed thus far.
[Reply]
Bwana 02:06 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Imagine spending your entire life raising a kid and this is how they turn out. https://t.co/SyKI5SvEcp
— Chelsea Handler (@chelseahandler) March 19, 2020
Find all of these people in three months.
[Reply]
DaneMcCloud 02:06 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by displacedinMN:
Ralph's at 10901 Ventura Blvd, Studio City, CA 91604???
I have been there. Saw the UPS driver from Legally Blonde when I was there.
Yes, sir!

My 10 year old (at the time) was and still is a HUGE Journey fan. On Christmas Eve, 2018, I took her to the store to buy food for Christmas Dinner and we ran into the One & Only, Steve Perry!

He was extremely nice and gracious and even took a few pictures with my daughter. She printed out the photo of her and Steve and put it on the cover of her school notebook, used it as a screensaver, etc.

I've run into tons of musicians (most of whom I've known) and actors/actresses there. :-)
[Reply]
Spott 02:06 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by displacedinMN:
Ralph's at 10901 Ventura Blvd, Studio City, CA 91604???
I have been there. Saw the UPS driver from Legally Blonde when I was there.
Is that by the In-N-Out Burger?
[Reply]
neech 02:07 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Can someone explain this to me because I am honestly at a loss on this.

H1N1 first case was April 15th 2009, day 72 was June 26th and there were 1MM known cases in the US.

This is day 72 of Covid 19 and we are around 10,000 know n cases. This cant be THAt much lower just due to lack of testing can it?

Here is the timeline.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html

Tell me about it, doesn't make sense.
[Reply]
Donger 02:07 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
But according to your numbers isn't nearly as contagious because it would be about 975,000 cases behind H1N1 in the same timeline when we did no lock down.

You get what I am saying yet?
H1N1 had an R0 of 1.5. This bug is estimated at 2 to 3.

And, it's deadlier.

So, it's clear why these actions have been taken with SARS-CoV-2 that weren't with H1N1.
[Reply]
DaneMcCloud 02:07 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Spott:
Is that by the In-N-Out Burger?
The In-N-Out is a few blocks northeast on basically Lankershim and Ventura, so it's less than a mile away.
[Reply]
Marcellus 02:09 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
H1N1 had an R0 of 1.5. This bug is estimated at 2 to 3.

And, it's deadlier.

So, it's clear why these actions have been taken with SARS-CoV-2 that weren't with H1N1.
I disagree. By your own theoretical numbers we won't have near 16,000 deaths nor would we without the lock down which is what H1N1 had.

Also by your numbers its not as contagious as I easily pointed out.
[Reply]
TLO 02:10 PM 03-19-2020
Comparing H1N1 and this virus is a future exercise. I wanted to try and do the same in the beginning, but they're not comparable.
[Reply]
Fat Elvis 02:11 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Originally Posted by Bwana:
Find all of these people in three months.
Found them: http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/forumdisplay.php?f=30
[Reply]
notorious 02:11 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Spott:
Is that by the In-N-Out Burger?

[Reply]
BigRedChief 02:11 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Bwana:
Find all of these people in three months.
hospitalized? Dead? Future Darwin Award winners?:-)
[Reply]
TLO 02:12 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis:

I think it may of been Singapore, but they seemed to have a really effective strategy of both limiting movement *and* isolating those who were more vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 prior to potential exposure/infection. They seemed to have emerged relatively unscathed thus far.
Do you think the US has done enough to take enough steps to be comparable to Singapore?

Edit - Never mind. It's not really easy to compare somewhere the size of Singapore to the US
[Reply]
Bwana 02:13 PM 03-19-2020
Originally Posted by neech:
So does that mean we still have to pay say the utility company if we get a pass on a couple months of those bills?
I'll go out on a limb and give that a hard yes.
[Reply]
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