While Chiefs K Harrison Butker (ankle) is uncertain to play Thursday night, he’s giving the team an assist this week as the Chiefs restructured his contract by converting $2,186,389 of his salary into a bonus, creating $1,457,593 in 2022 cap space [Reply]
Chargers have won 3 of the last 4 games at Arrowhead. Then I realized that the 2020 game was a throwaway game. Phyllis Rivers pulled out a 29-28 win in 2018 on a 2pt conversion. I’m sure we will hear how the Chargers aren’t intimidated by Arrowhead this week.
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Final Analysis
The Chargers will come to Arrowhead seeking revenge from last season’s game won by the Chiefs at SoFi in OT. The Chargers defense will be amped up and is clearly boosted by the presence of Khalil Mack, making life easier on All-Pro Joey Bosa and Derwin James Jr. Expect them to penetrate the Chiefs offensive line a few times. They'll keep it close.
But the Chiefs are in a rhythm and more talented on the offensive side of the ball. Justin Herbert may be a great QB in the making, but he'll get a reminder Thursday night of the benchmark Mahomes has set for him to get there.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Chargers 27
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Herbert had a 4-0 turnover advantage and still needed a questionable 4th down call to win in Arrowhead last year.
I was at that 29-28 game vs Rivers. What a joke. KC led 28-14 with something like 5 min left. We got up to beat the traffic and by the time I reached the car they were behind. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
The majority of the population really really struggles with this as well. They think because something happened, it will happen that way again. That is not always the case, and when we have a plethora of historical information we can determine the best decision to make. The margins may be slim. The expected win probability for one decison vs the other may be small. For example, you may be fucked either way. If you punt in tbe 4th quarter, you may have a 10% chance to win the game but you have a greater chance to not lose by as much. But if you go for it you may have a 13% chance to win the game but a greater chance to lose by a large amount. The goal is to win the game.
Not disputing you statistical definition BUT
Football is also not by definition a static variable game. There are these things called variables and the NFL has a whole lot of them. You have to be able to understand the situation you are in. Any analytics person knows this , that they have to plug in their variables to the current model otherwise you are just going in blind which is equally stupid as just going on your gut all the time.
You need both, statistics and a good feel for the present situation you are in. [Reply]
Yep, it’s a mirror image on the flip side of the field. Herbert & Mahomes are both incredibly talented. Chargers appear to have a major advantage when it comes to defensive talent on the roster. Chiefs have the coaching advantage. Going to be a hell of a battle. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
Yep, it’s a mirror image on the flip side of the field. Herbert & Mahomes are both incredibly talented. Chargers appear to have a major advantage when it comes to defensive talent on the roster. Chiefs have the coaching advantage. Going to be a hell of a battle.
Major advantage in defensive talent? Not sure about that. Their defense was garbage last year. I don't think adding a piece or two makes them much better than a KC defense that also upgraded. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
Major advantage in defensive talent? Not sure about that. Their defense was garbage last year. I don't think adding a piece or two makes them much better than a KC defense that also upgraded.
Coaching advantage for the Chiefs. In terms of raw talent, the Chargers are pretty loaded on both sides of the ball. They underachieved last year. We’ll see if that continues for them. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
Coaching advantage for the Chiefs. In terms of raw talent, the Chargers are pretty loaded on both sides of the ball. They underachieved last year. We’ll see if that continues for them.
Maybe. To me it seems like people focus too much on a few players. I see 3 really good players and a lot of average guys around them. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Simply Red:
are you guys hypey AF for Thursday?
I sure am because my favorite team, the Kansas City Chiefs will be playing in their home stadium (the most awesome one in the world) for first place in the AFCW against the fanless la chargers [Reply]
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
Herbert had a 4-0 turnover advantage and still needed a questionable 4th down call to win in Arrowhead last year.
I was at that 29-28 game vs Rivers. What a joke. KC led 28-14 with something like 5 min left. We got up to beat the traffic and by the time I reached the car they were behind.
Yep..and the 2 pt. conversion was such a blatant OPI that the NFL specifically used it as a teaching moment the next season. No big deal...just cost KC the game.
NFL likes to bail out the Raiders/Chargers against the Chiefs...trying to create some faux-rivalry.
With the Raiders being terrible..it becomes more blatant. That Clete Blakeman special...where Gruden circled the stadium was a joke. [Reply]
Playing these teams that are good and then go for it on 4th down most the way down the field are tough. As much as I would love a blow out, Herbert is too accurate to expect that. I know we got some QB pressure this last week, but we are going to need to hit this guy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by morphius:
Playing these teams that are good and then go for it on 4th down most the way down the field are tough. As much as I would love a blow out, Herbert is too accurate to expect that. I know we got some QB pressure this last week, but we are going to need to hit this guy.
That's key. I think if we can get pressure on him consistently, KC will win by a lopsided score. [Reply]