Assumptions:
1. Prior to the 2023 season, the Chiefs extend DT Chris Jones, which provides them cap space to sign WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) and DE Frank Clark (Chiefs).
2. The Chiefs go on to have a good, quality season and will be drafting somewhere between 30 and 32. HC Andy Reid and GM Brett Veach are retained for the coming season. Washington OC Eric Bienemy is relieved of duty in Washington after HC Ron Rivera is fired, and returns to KC as offensive assistant.
3. Big moves: the Chiefs extend QB Patrick Mahomes 2 years for ungodly amounts of money in like 2033 and 2034 to give him the highest per-year in the NFL (while also providing cap space...); they also elect to extend OG Tre Smith for 3 years, $25m, and CB L'Jarius Sneed for 4 years, $72m.
4. The Chiefs trade WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling for a 2025 5th round pick.
5. The Chiefs extend LB Drue Tranquill 2 years, $13m; P Tommy Townsend 5 years, $20m.
6. The Chiefs bring back the following players on minimal deals: QB Blaine Gabbert, TE Blake Bell, OG Nick Allegretti, LB Jack Cochrane, DT Tershawn Wharton, CB Nazeeh Johnson, S Mike Edwards, LS James Winchester
7. The Chiefs let walk: QB Shane Buechele, RB Jerick McKinnon, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Richie James, TE Jody Fortson, OT Donovan Smith, OT Prince Tega Wanogho, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Chris Williams, DT Phil Hoskins, DE Mike Danna, LB Willie Gay Jr., S Deon Bush
8. The Chiefs sign the following free agents: WR Marcus Kemp (Commanders), OT Vitaliy Gurman (Raiders), DT Javon Kinlaw (49ers).
9. The Chiefs's conditional 7th rounder they traded to the Texans for CB Lonnie Johnson, Jr. in 2022 doesn't activate.
10. The Draft:
1. TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, Texas
2. S Cole Bishop, Utah
3. DE Laiatu Latu, UCLA (the Chiefs trade their 4th and 2025 3rd to move up towards the beginning of round 3)
5 (Cowboys). DT Fabian Lovett, Florida State
5 (compensatory). RB Alton McCaskill IV, Colorado
5 (compensatory). QB Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
6. LB Jason Henderson, Old Dominion
7. RB Treshaun Ward, Florida State
The roster:
QB: Mahomes, Gabbert,
Rattler
RB: Pacheco, Prince,
McCaskill,
Ward
WR: Hopkins, Toney, Moore, Rice, Ross, Watson,
Kemp
TE: Kelce,
Sanders, Gray, Bell
LT: Taylor, Thuney
LG: Thuney, Allegretti
C: Humphrey, Allegretti
RG: Smith, Kinnard
RT: Niang vs. Morris,
Gurman
DE: Omenihu, Anudike-Uzomah, Thompson
DT: Jones, Wharton,
Kinlaw
DT: Coburn,
Lovett
DE: Karlaftis,
Latu
WLB: Tranquill,
Henderson
MLB: Bolton, Chenal
SLB: Chenal, Cochrane
CB: Sneed, McDuffie, Watson, Williams, Jones, Johnson
S: Reid, Cook,
Bishop, Edwards, Conner
K: Butker
P: Townsend
LS: Winchester
[Reply]
Once the team signs Hopkins this offseason (hypothetically), there's no immediate needs for the 2024 squad.
It's possible both Niang and Morris crater, and they need a tackle at the very top, but I don't think it's likely that they
both are un-startable. The Chiefs do have a need at 1-tech, but I'm projecting that Coburn is a useable starter there by season's end. Even with Frank Clark walking next season (hypothetically) and Mike Danna out the door, you still have three starting-caliber DEs in Karlaftis, Omenihu, and FAU. The Chiefs need more talent at RB, but not top-of-the-draft talent.
So I looked ahead to 2025, which the Chiefs like to do anyway. And with Sneed and Jones both wrapped up, here are the team's top free agents in 2025:
1. Justin Reid
2. Charles Omenihu
3. MVS (who I've traded this offseason anyway)
The WR group looks stout, but there will be a need for a starting-caliber S and DE depth.
But you know what the team needs more than either of those things? Another stud TE prospect to eat snaps from Kelce and elongate his career. (Gray will also be a free agent in 2025 anyway.)
The Chiefs get their safety in the 2nd round, and trade some serious assets to go up and get DE depth behind what I think is going to be a killer one-two punch in Karlaftis/FAU.
I add some meat along all three levels of the defense, and body out the RB room. So long as I bring back Allegretti, which I do here, I think the OL is set.
The Chiefs will rake in comp picks. CEH, Fortson, Danna, Gay should all command a decent contract and give the Chiefs depth third day comp picks in next year's draft, to go along with the MVS 4th. This will help make up for the 2025 3rd I traded away to go up and get Latu.
[Reply]