Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
All right, so given what's in the aforementioned link, is it reasonably certain that SARSCOV2 is to solely blame for causing six different variations of illness? [Reply]
It’s such a diverse population it’s infecting I don’t know if it’s that weird that it causes such differences. Hormonal changes, diet etc there’s just so much differences In people [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
While this stuff is way beyond any expertise I could claim to have, my understanding is that there are seven widespread coronaviruses, and four of them are from common colds. (The rest of them are SARS and MERS.) I don't know any strong reason that this cross immunity couldn't be driven by the colds as much as SARS and MERS, so there's really pretty good hope that there's a lot of cross immunity worldwide.
More data is needed, but overall, between vaccine progress, improved therapeutics, and cross immunity, I'm really hopeful that live can be mostly back to normal by the end of the year. Fingers crossed.
Originally Posted by O.city:
If you get some crows immunity from SARS or mers you’ll get it from the common cold ones.
Again, there’s gotta be something that’s bringing these curves down this quick like they are. If it’s truly novel and We’re all able to get it, you’d not get curves down like that.
After reading some comments in other places in regards to this study it seems to indicate this doesn't make us immune from Covid just that we wouldn't get the severe disease portion of it but we would still be spreading it . I could buy that somewhat.
I just see the mass infections and death here in the USA and makes me skeptical. My theory is that we are going to find out later on that genetics played a huge role in this.
With that being said I am definitely hopeful for a vaccine by the end of the year and getting back to normal before spring next year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
After reading some comments in other places in regards to this study it seems to indicate this doesn't make us immune from Covid just that we wouldn't get the severe disease portion of it but we would still be spreading it . I could buy that somewhat.
I just see the mass infections and death here in the USA and makes me skeptical. My theory is that we are going to find out later on that genetics played a huge role in this.
With that being said I am definitely hopeful for a vaccine by the end of the year and getting back to normal before spring next year.
To O.City's point, the key question is just why we've seen pretty rapid declines essentially everywhere that has "popped." That's not to say that the impacts haven't been catastrophic in NYC, Italy, Spain, etc. - it's not like anyone (aside from some crazies) are suggesting completely opening up with no precautions at all. But it does make you wonder why pretty much everywhere has been on a huge, rapid climb, then suddenly dropped like a rock. Some of it can be attributed to "it got so bad that people started taking it seriously," but it doesn't seem like that can possibly be the only explanation. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
To O.City's point, the key question is just why we've seen pretty rapid declines essentially everywhere that has "popped." That's not to say that the impacts haven't been catastrophic in NYC, Italy, Spain, etc. - it's not like anyone (aside from some crazies) are suggesting completely opening up with no precautions at all. But it does make you wonder why pretty much everywhere has been on a huge, rapid climb, then suddenly dropped like a rock. Some of it can be attributed to "it got so bad that people started taking it seriously," but it doesn't seem like that can possibly be the only explanation.
Do you have an example? For NY\NJ it took a couple of months to get where they are now, same thing with Italy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Do you have an example? For NY\NJ it took a couple of months to get where they are now, same thing with Italy.
Right, but that's kind of the point. It took a couple of months to get there, and along the way surely people started taking it seriously, right? Why did it climb, climb, climb and then just...drop? Again, some of it is certainly due to lockdowns and such, but the drops have seemed very rapid compared to what I would expect.
But again, I'm certainly no epidemiologist, so some of this is just me being hopeful. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
To O.City's point, the key question is just why we've seen pretty rapid declines essentially everywhere that has "popped." That's not to say that the impacts haven't been catastrophic in NYC, Italy, Spain, etc. - it's not like anyone (aside from some crazies) are suggesting completely opening up with no precautions at all. But it does make you wonder why pretty much everywhere has been on a huge, rapid climb, then suddenly dropped like a rock. Some of it can be attributed to "it got so bad that people started taking it seriously," but it doesn't seem like that can possibly be the only explanation.
Especially when you see all the stuff that shows that the vast majority of these infections happen in home settings, something weird is happening.
If it's a novel virus and there's not immunity anywhere for anyone, it woudln't drop like that until it had ran it's way thru and especially when some of those places have opened back up if there is active spread etc. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Right, but that's kind of the point. It took a couple of months to get there, and along the way surely people started taking it seriously, right? Why did it climb, climb, climb and then just...drop? Again, some of it is certainly due to lockdowns and such, but the drops have seemed very rapid compared to what I would expect.
But again, I'm certainly no epidemiologist, so some of this is just me being hopeful.
I'm definitely being hopeful.
But when every damn curve just seems to be the same no matter what steps you take to do it, it starts raising some eyebrows. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
I'm definitely being hopeful.
But when every damn curve just seems to be the same no matter what steps you take to do it, it starts raising some eyebrows.
Well one thing to be hopeful about is even though FL and CA both have passed NY in total cases both states combined still less than half the deaths of NY.
We are at least treating this better than we had. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Well one thing to be hopeful about is even though FL and CA both have passed NY in total cases both states combined still less than half the deaths of NY.
We are at least treating this better than we had.
Those differences in death numbers wouldn't have anything to do with flattening the curve versus a spike when this all got started and what has been learned since.
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Well one thing to be hopeful about is even though FL and CA both have passed NY in total cases both states combined still less than half the deaths of NY.
We are at least treating this better than we had.
Yeah thats definitely better, but it's not all about deaths in the end. Don't want people to have to have long term issues, thats just another strain on the healthcare system. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Right, but that's kind of the point. It took a couple of months to get there, and along the way surely people started taking it seriously, right? Why did it climb, climb, climb and then just...drop? Again, some of it is certainly due to lockdowns and such, but the drops have seemed very rapid compared to what I would expect.
But again, I'm certainly no epidemiologist, so some of this is just me being hopeful.
NY\NJ was more of a long slow slog than rapid decline. On Worldmeters I have been spot checking countries and yes some of the had a fairly quick decline in comparison to NY but these countries didn't have alot of cases to begin with. So I am guessing lock downs was the main factor.
Lockdown didn't help Peru though...they are in the Top 10 of cases and they peaked on May 29 with 8805 cases and now they are in a plateau since then at 4-5k cases per day and they have been in lockdown since March 16th. Social economic issues are playing a huge role there because it is a very poor country. [Reply]
