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Saccopoo Memorial Draft Forum>*** 2022 Mock Draft Megathread ***
duncan_idaho 12:45 PM 11-23-2021
Got a mock? Pop it in this thread. Include a picture if you want. Explain your reasoning if you want. Talk about your crushes... if you want.

See a good "pro" mock? Link it up in here and I'll add it to the OP.

Duncan's latest mock

Site
The Draft Network This mock seems to be the most accurate site right now, so I go with this one. I don't pay for it, so no trades here. The plan is for this to be my last mock. I'm going to do it differently, though. I'm running 3 scenarios, and eschewing the 7th round picks, which I would use on a big swings on athleticism and potential. Lotto tickets. James Houston IV is one of them. Note: I used PFF to simulate the trade action, then manually backed up in the 2 "trade" drafts to make selections. Laborious, but gives you best of both worlds, IMO. I think PFF's trade tool is the best, but its board is whack.

Draft slot: 29

Scenario 1: The Chiefs sit pat with their picks and don't make any moves at all. Seems the least likely, but hey...
1.29 | George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue.
1.30 | Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota.
2.50 | George Pickens, WR, Georgia.
2.62 | Travis Jones, DT, UConn.
3.94 | Zyon McCollum, CB, Sam Houston State.
3.103(Comp for Poles) | Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State.
4.121 | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati.
4.135 | Velus Jones, Jr., Tennessee

Scenario 1 Debrief:
So, sitting and waiting to see what comes to me was pretty successful here. The Chiefs FLOOD the defensive line with reinforcements, including at least 1 ready-made starter and two guys who should - at minimum - be in 50/50 rotations at their spots by year end. The Chiefs still get a big outside WR with tantalizing potential. They add some crazy athletic small-school guys, and a mid-round corner who just fits in the system, and a dynamo return man who might be more at WR.

This looks pretty good. Though I have a hard time believing Karlaftis just falls to 29...

Scenario 2: The Chiefs get aggressive and trade up. But for what? In this case, let's go wide receiver. In this run, Kansas City trades picks 29, 62, and a 2023 3rd to Houston for pick 13 and a 2023 4th, because they ARE as obsessed with a WR as people expect and are aggressive to go get him when the board falls right. They then trade BACK from 30 to 35 with the Jets, also including pick 94 in order to get 69 back. Then, last but not least, KC gets aggressive one more time and moves 103 and 121 for 85 from New England, leaving the Chiefs with 6 picks in the first four rounds.
1.13 | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama.
2.35 | Cam Thomas, DE, San Diego State.
2.50 | Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor.
3.69 | Zachary Carter, DT, Florida.
3.85 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
4.135 | Jaylen Watson, CB, Washington State

Scenario 2 Debrief:
I'm not saying KC should do this or even that I think they will (more on that in a few minutes). I'm just saying, man, what will it look like if the Chiefs get aggressive a few times AND are doing the big move for a WR? In this scenario, KC obviously believes Williams is a game-changer at the NFL level and is taking a small 2022 hit to make 2023+ better. The defensive line still gets reinforced, but the reinforcements are all a shade worse than the sit-pat draft option. If you like Kingsley Enagbare or Josh PAscal more than Thomas, I get it and wouldn't quibble at one of those guys instead. Logan Hall, too. Pitre is such a screaming perfect fit for KC's D. Carter is a great physical talent you can dream about coaching up. Williams' utility is known and gives them a true RE option to pair against their higher-drafted bigger guy. Watson is a developmental corner.

I don't love it. I think Pitre makes the secondary a lot better and makes it easier to move on from Thornhill after 22. They have improved the defensive rotation, though one of the DEs would need to outperform expectations in Year 1 to get it to the same level as Scenario 1. In all, giving up the 2 extra selections in the top 4 rounds hurts the depth you can build, but I think it's more like what KC will do.

Scenario 3: Same movements as #2
1.13 | Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State.
2.35 | Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State.
2.50 | Sam Williams, DE, Ole Miss.
3.69 | Bryan Cook, S, Cincinnati.
3.85 | Martin Emerson, CB, Miss. State.
4.135 | Braxton Jones, T, Southern Utah

Scenario 3 Debrief:
This is the type of situation where I see KC paying the price to move up... if Johnson falls this far, I'd be shocked if KC isn't aggressively moving up. With this run, I take a risky but high upside WR in Watson (but you could sub in Pickens or Jahan Dotson or Tolbert or Metchie or Skyy Moore or really any of those tier 2 guys here if you prefer). The secondary reinforcements aren't flashy but are good fits.

In this one, I think the plan has to become adding either another safety or corner in free agency before the season. Ideally, it's someone who can handle the slot and let Sneed thriver on the outside. The DL gets a major boost and some potential star power in Johnson and Williams, and the OL gets another T option and potential long-term starter to develop.

Having completed the exercise and looking at the scenariors, I like the first one the most. But it really does come down to how the board breaks.

Older mocks
Spoiler!

[Reply]
duncan_idaho 11:11 PM 04-23-2022
Originally Posted by chiefforlife:
Not if the top 6/7 DEs are gone, maybe the top 3/4 CBs?

I mean he is the BEST LB in the draft? Im sure it wont happen but if we got screwed with big runs on other positions of great need...

The odds of there not being a wr, de, or cb , or Dt worthy of that pick are just small. Tiny.

KC would trade out if he’s BPA, IMO.
[Reply]
BossChief 12:17 AM 04-24-2022
Give me Troy in the third over Lloyd in the first. All day. And I think Lloyd is going to be a stud.
[Reply]
Chris Meck 04:42 AM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by chiefforlife:
Not if the top 6/7 DEs are gone, maybe the top 3/4 CBs?

I mean he is the BEST LB in the draft? Im sure it wont happen but if we got screwed with big runs on other positions of great need...
This isn't aimed at you specifically, but just a thought-

We tend to way oversimplify this player ranking process, as we're not professional scouts and neither are the talking heads or most of the draft prognosticators.

This is always true, and perhaps even more so this year.

This draft is not full of sure-fire top flight, instant star level talent at the top. It IS full of talented players with question marks, flaws that could be coached out, injury concerns, etc.

The 'Top 6-7' DE's, for example, won't include Sam Williams, who would be a 1st rounder were it not for off-field concerns. Even the top 5 WR group will include Jameson Williams, who will likely not be ready to start the season. John Metchie might be ready for training camp, and if he'd not gotten injured, would almost certainly be a top 5 receiver-as would Pickens. Any of those 3 probably have a higher ceiling than Olave-although they also have a lower floor.

And any of these players will depend on team fit to reach their potential. Some would be better served in specific systems, specific roles, etc.

Don't get too hung up on what draftniks have players ranked in terms of their positions; look at the skillset, the athletic make-up, and their possible fit with what we know of Andy Reid's offenses and Spagnuolo's defenses' tendencies over the years.

For instance, I wouldn't have considered Arnold Ebeketie a Spags guy; too short and a bit too light. But with his speed and 34" arms, he actually will play bigger than he is-which is Mike Danna's size but with like...so much more athletic ability.

And Karlaftis is a sure first round pick, but there's really not much difference between him and Cam Thomas, who will probably go late 2nd. And Myjai Sanders might've been a cusper in that late 1st/early 2nd except he was really sick before the combine and lost like 20 pounds, so he weighed in at 228-which is way too light for a 4-3 DE, but he's back up to 250 and played closer to 260. So that's a possible way to go late 2nd and maybe 3rd.

It's going to be a fun draft.
[Reply]
Chargem 08:26 AM 04-24-2022
Its annoying to post PFF mock results, but trading back both firsts and picking up 2023 2nd round picks in the process, you can still end up with a pretty satisfying draft AND go into next year with 3 2nd round picks.
[Reply]
Woogieman 08:53 AM 04-24-2022
In your trade-up scenarios, all the thers I have seen, and the ones I attempted, I really can't say that in any, they came better, or even as good as the "no trade" scenarios. I try to be objective, and if Williams is a HoFer I will likely be proven wrong, but I think this year more than any other I can recall, is a huge winner by just staying put or making small moves with a single 3rd or 4th, and of course 7ths.
[Reply]
chiefforlife 09:14 AM 04-24-2022
4 Second round picks, is what we have!

Veach stated they have 16-18 first round grades on players. They are not optimistic that one of those guys will fall to them.

So, essentially we have 4 second round picks. Looking at it this way, does it change your mind about trading up? Does it make you more inclined to stay put?

If the draft as some have said is deep from 30-60, we have 4 picks in that range. Pretty sweet!

Veach said the most he would go up is 29+62, Maybe that gives us what they have as a round 1 prospect and 2 more picks in that range, still pretty sweet!

Yeah, this is going to be FUN! And we now know what is possible according to Veach.
[Reply]
BossChief 09:38 AM 04-24-2022
Veach is willing to use our 62nd pick to move up to 18. He said it yesterday. 29+62=18 the points match up exactly.

For us to trade up, we want 2-3 QBs to go early…for a trade down, we want 1-2QBs to go early snd for 2-3 guys to go in the top 29 that not many expect to for the value of the trade down to max out as that pushes valuable talents closer to us and gives us the opportunity to trade down with a team looking for a QB that didn’t feel the value was there at their early pick(s).
[Reply]
The Franchise 09:55 AM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
Veach is willing to use our 62nd pick to move up to 18. He said it yesterday. 29+62=18 the points match up exactly.

For us to trade up, we want 2-3 QBs to go early…for a trade down, we want 1-2QBs to go early snd for 2-3 guys to go in the top 29 that not many expect to for the value of the trade down to max out as that pushes valuable talents closer to us and gives us the opportunity to trade down with a team looking for a QB that didn’t feel the value was there at their early pick(s).
What? He said that he has 16-18 players with first round grades (not including QBs), that the value is the 30-60 range and that he doesn’t see himself trading into the top 10. You took that as him saying he’d use 62 to get up to 18? It could actually mean that he would package 62 and 4th move up into that 30-60 range again.
[Reply]
BossChief 11:23 AM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
What? He said that he has 16-18 players with first round grades (not including QBs), that the value is the 30-60 range and that he doesn’t see himself trading into the top 10. You took that as him saying he’d use 62 to get up to 18? It could actually mean that he would package 62 and 4th move up into that 30-60 range again.
He specifically says the spots he might look to move up to are 18-21. About 7mins into the pc
[Reply]
The Franchise 11:55 AM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
He specifically says the spots he might look to move up to are 18-21. About 7mins into the pc
And when did he specifically say that he was willing to give up 62 to get there? And don’t tell me because it’s the exact value. He didn’t say that.
[Reply]
BossChief 12:03 PM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
And when did he specifically say that he was willing to give up 62 to get there? And don’t tell me because it’s the exact value. He didn’t say that.
:-)
[Reply]
The Franchise 12:08 PM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
:-)
Got it. It must have been in his body language.
[Reply]
BossChief 01:23 PM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
Got it. It must have been in his body language.
There is no other reasonable way to get from 29 to 18.

And, yes…the points match up. To the point.

This isn’t hard.
[Reply]
staylor26 01:31 PM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by BossChief:
He specifically says the spots he might look to move up to are 18-21. About 7mins into the pc
I don’t recall him saying this at all.

What was the exact quote?
[Reply]
Chargem 01:40 PM 04-24-2022
Originally Posted by staylor26:
I don’t recall him saying this at all.

What was the exact quote?
It was vaguer than Boss is suggesting.

It was something like "I can't see us doing anything crazy like moving up into the top 10. There are only 16 first round talents, but we don't look at the quarter backs. If one of those 16 fell, we might look at moving up to them them.

EDIT: Here's the exact quote:

"We talking about 16-18 guys being first round valued, all of a sudden if you get to picks 19,20,21 and there's still some of those guys on the board I think you make a decision and you can maybe find a trade partner. But if those 16 guys are off the board, it drives the narrative to stay put"
[Reply]
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