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The Lounge>A Craig Stout theory on why Mahomes/offense has struggled.
Direckshun 03:31 AM 11-29-2021
His theory is because when defenses are playing the Chiefs, they change up their tendencies completely.

Teams normally do not play two-high shells like they've played against the Chiefs and other teams this season. So ultimately, when they face up against the Chiefs, they are trotting out a new look that the Chiefs simply don't have on tape. Certain players are playing in certain areas that they normally don't, so it's hard to tell in certain circumstances whether this player or that player will play shallow or deeper or bite on certain routes and whatnot. It's simply not on tape.

He mentions this because of the games where the offense has rolled. In particular, the Raiders played a lot of single-high, which they've done all season. Andy Reid's extensive scouting meant the Chiefs had a counter for everything they did and ended up dominating.

The Chargers played us in a two-high shell, but they normally play in a two-high shell anyway, so Andy Reid had that on tape, and had a counter for everything they did and the offense ended up dominating, even though we lost the game.

Otherwise, we're facing two-deeps from teams that simply don't play two-deep and they can only gameplan against what they think the scheme may end up -- all the defensive tape leading up to the game is not very helpful.

It's a plausible theory that we obviously can't prove at this point, but we can certainly keep an eye on it.

Does anybody know what defense Denver usually plays? Any Denver fans among us?
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HC_Chief 11:08 AM 11-29-2021
Running game, quick short to intermediate passes, throw body blows until they start bringing more players up to the LOS. Andy knows the West Coast Offense (WCO). It is a perfect counter to Tampa-2. Teams will either have to tighten up closer to the LOS or they die by a thousand cuts. Either way, we got their ass. We just need to practice WCO fundamentals and be prepared to mix them in as necessary. It is interesting our high-powered explosive offense has struggled when forced to play basic sound fundamental football.
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O.city 11:09 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
This team has always been kinda mistake prone. They struggled to put teams away last season. In '19 they'd make dumb mistakes too. The Rams game comes to mind. The Texans playoff game. But they always made huge plays to compensate.

We're seeing mistakes at a higher volume coupled with less explosive plays downfield. The fact that it takes them 12 plays to score is what's leading to the higher volume of turnovers.
I think it's essentially the league figuring out, with less practice time and such that they have now, teams just can't be as sharp for that long.

So it's the ideal way to play. Somewhat.
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Detoxing 11:13 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by HC_Chief:
throw body blows until they start bringing more players up to the LOS.
There's 6 games left in the season and that hasn't happened yet. It's not going to happen. At least not with teams playing the "Mahomes Formula".
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Dante84 11:14 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
This team has always been kinda mistake prone. They struggled to put teams away last season. In '19 they'd make dumb mistakes too. The Rams game comes to mind. The Texans playoff game. But they always made huge plays to compensate.

We're seeing mistakes at a higher volume coupled with less explosive plays downfield. The fact that it takes them 12 plays to score is what's leading to the higher volume of turnovers.
I think we're (hopefully) in the process of phasing out dumb players.

Dee Ford was dumb. He's gone.
Breeland, god love him, made bone-headed plays. He's gone.

Sorenson, DRob & Hardman(!!) have made dumb plays this year, the latter two for multiple years. I fully expect Dirty Dan and Drob to be gone, and for us to not re-sign Hardman when he's due up after next year. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if we traded Hardman at somepoint before next year's trade deadline, depending on our FA's and draft haul.
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HC_Chief 11:16 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
There's 6 games left in the season and that hasn't happened yet. It's not going to happen. At least not with teams playing the "Mahomes Formula".
That's because we abandon the formula way too soon in games. Our scripted drives have been excellent. Great mix of run, quick passes, attacking the Tampa-2. Then we go full retard. Pass happy, forced RPO, abandon the run, long-developing plays... it is infuriating. If you can run at will on a team, DO IT. Nothing crushes a defense faster than a team committed to the run having their way over and over and over. It is physically and mentally taxing. That is when they start to creep up... and that's when we switch to 8th gear, not immediately after our first or second possession.
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O.city 11:17 AM 11-29-2021
Yeah, teams aren't going to come out of it and play it different. We know what happens if you do that.
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Lzen 11:18 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
This team has always been kinda mistake prone. They struggled to put teams away last season. In '19 they'd make dumb mistakes too. The Rams game comes to mind. The Texans playoff game. But they always made huge plays to compensate.

We're seeing mistakes at a higher volume coupled with less explosive plays downfield. The fact that it takes them 12 plays to score is what's leading to the higher volume of turnovers.
I see your point but a little correction. The Rams game was in 2018.
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Marcellus 11:18 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
There's 6 games left in the season and that hasn't happened yet. It's not going to happen. At least not with teams playing the "Mahomes Formula".
The formula to keep Mahomes merely in the top 5 in passing yards, TD's etc...even with the drops, turnovers and early in the season very limited possesions?
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Marcellus 11:21 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by HC_Chief:
That's because we abandon the formula way too soon in games. Our scripted drives have been excellent. Great mix of run, quick passes, attacking the Tampa-2. Then we go full reerun. Pass happy, forced RPO, abandon the run, long-developing plays... it is infuriating. If you can run at will on a team, DO IT. Nothing crushes a defense faster than a team committed to the run having their way over and over and over. It is physically and mentally taxing. That is when they start to creep up... and that's when we switch to 8th gear, not immediately after our first or second possession.
I disagree to an extent. Last week and many weeks there are drives that show this isn't the case.

Last week -

1-10 run for 5 yards.

2-5 run for -1 yard

3-6 incomplete pass and punt.

RRPP offense is not the way to score points, its as predictable as anything else.

Should have passed on 2nd down. Let the playmakers make plays.
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Marcellus 11:28 AM 11-29-2021

Highest EPA/play on 3rd down, offenses

Cardinals 0.25
Colts 0.22
Packers 0.29
Chargers 0.19
Chiefs 0.15

Lowest EPA/play allowed on 3rd down, defenses
Cardinals -0.41
Panthers -0.24
Giants -0.22
Cowboys -0.22
Chiefs -0.21

— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) November 29, 2021

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Detoxing 11:33 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
The formula to keep Mahomes merely in the top 5 in passing yards, TD's etc...even with the drops, turnovers and early in the season very limited possesions?
Yes.

Because top 5 isn't #1, and our offense isn't as effective as it once was. You can argue that they're still effective. Sure. Because they are. But they aren't scoring the way they were, they're not chunking out big plays like they were. They're slowed down.

And there's more to slowing down the Chiefs than just Mahomes stat line.
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Marcellus 11:35 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Detoxing:
Yes.

Because top 5 isn't #1, and our offense isn't as effective as it once was. You can argue that they're still effective. Sure. Because they are. But they aren't scoring the way they were, they're not chunking out big plays like they were. They're slowed down.

And there's more to slowing down the Chiefs than just Mahomes stat line.
I think what it points to is more other guys not doing their job more than Mahomes not doing his.

Which its why calling it the "Mahomes Defense" is silly.
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Chieftain 11:49 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Chiefsallday:
He may have a point but ultimately the reason our offense has struggled is because of self inflicted mistakes in my mind. Correct those and we are 9-2 leading the whole NFL at this point
This is exactly the reason.
The issue is not that the offense is struggling with how to counter the two deep safety look. They have done that consistently. It's doing that in long drives that has raised the number of turnovers. So if the Chiefs don't turn the ball over in their end, no defense can stop them. It's really that simple.
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dirk digler 12:01 PM 11-29-2021
I could buy this. I know the Ravens abandoned their normal blitz strategy and played 2 high but I don't think the offense struggled in that game.

As Detoxing rightly pointed out Mahomes has talked about this openly and teams aren't coming out of it at all.
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JudasRising20 12:15 PM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Chieftain:
This is exactly the reason.
The issue is not that the offense is struggling with how to counter the two deep safety look. They have done that consistently. It's doing that in long drives that has raised the number of turnovers. So if the Chiefs don't turn the ball over in their end, no defense can stop them. It's really that simple.
Catch ball. Fall down at first sign of contact. Should be that simple. Guys have lost concentration trying to make the extra play. They don't have any Earl Campbells on this team.

Regarding penalties, that's a different story. This team is among the league leaders in offensive penalties. Penalties used to be NO problem when the offense could make it up in one play. Not anymore. Every penalty now feels like a drive killer.
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