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The Lounge>A Craig Stout theory on why Mahomes/offense has struggled.
Direckshun 03:31 AM 11-29-2021
His theory is because when defenses are playing the Chiefs, they change up their tendencies completely.

Teams normally do not play two-high shells like they've played against the Chiefs and other teams this season. So ultimately, when they face up against the Chiefs, they are trotting out a new look that the Chiefs simply don't have on tape. Certain players are playing in certain areas that they normally don't, so it's hard to tell in certain circumstances whether this player or that player will play shallow or deeper or bite on certain routes and whatnot. It's simply not on tape.

He mentions this because of the games where the offense has rolled. In particular, the Raiders played a lot of single-high, which they've done all season. Andy Reid's extensive scouting meant the Chiefs had a counter for everything they did and ended up dominating.

The Chargers played us in a two-high shell, but they normally play in a two-high shell anyway, so Andy Reid had that on tape, and had a counter for everything they did and the offense ended up dominating, even though we lost the game.

Otherwise, we're facing two-deeps from teams that simply don't play two-deep and they can only gameplan against what they think the scheme may end up -- all the defensive tape leading up to the game is not very helpful.

It's a plausible theory that we obviously can't prove at this point, but we can certainly keep an eye on it.

Does anybody know what defense Denver usually plays? Any Denver fans among us?
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TomBarndtsTwin 10:02 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Chiefsallday:
He may have a point but ultimately the reason our offense has struggled is because of self inflicted mistakes in my mind. Correct those and we are 9-2 leading the whole NFL at this point
IF what is being alleged in OP is true, then there is some value in seeing all these potential playoff teams prior to playoffs.

That said, I think the above is the more plausible reason for our 'struggles'. Self inflicted wounds. Most notably, turnovers. We never should have lost to either the Ravens or Chargers, we gave those 2 games away. We should be sitting at 9-2, best record in the NFL and the inside track to the #1 seed in the AFC. Instead, we have to win out and rely on a couple others losing games. It may happen.

The Bills and Titans games were just bad days at the office. Yeah, we 'struggled' in both of those games, but sometimes shit just happens. They're both good teams and both were rolling at the point they played us. Also, don't discount the 'revenge factor'. Both of those teams had previously been whipped by us in the last 2 AFC Title games. Don't think for a second that didn't serve as motivation for them playing us. We were the sole reason they both missed out on playing in a Super Bowl. That hurts.

As long as we can take care of the ball and do not turn it over (much) in our post-bye schedule, there's absolutely no reason we can't run the table. We are a better team than everyone left on our schedule.

We just need to hope for a couple losses by the Ravens, one more by the Tits, and one each by Buffalo and NE (which should take care of itself since they play each other twice). If that happens, we should be hosting another AFC Title Game in Arrowhead (not calling it Gay-Ha!).

That is all.
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Bowser 10:04 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
No. Just stop dropping passes, missing blocks and turning the damn ball over.
This is where I'm at. How many of Mahomes' INTs have come from passes bouncing off our receiver's hands? 5? Maybe 6? Adn the drops and fumbles are completely out of character.

The mistakes are getting into everyone's heads, too. Everyone is pressing more trying to be perfect and not playing loose. Yeah, the defenses have switched it up against us with some success, but when your normally solid players are doubting themselves, you're going to get sloppy play.
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Hammock Parties 10:11 AM 11-29-2021
The Chiefs didn't even struggle that much against Buffalo. It was mostly just drops and turnovers. Again. They had almost 400 yards of offense. There was a 14-point swing in the third quarter alone on back to back drives based solely on entirely preventable turnovers.
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Detoxing 10:16 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
His theory is because when defenses are playing the Chiefs, they change up their tendencies completely.

Teams normally do not play two-high shells like they've played against the Chiefs and other teams this season. So ultimately, when they face up against the Chiefs, they are trotting out a new look that the Chiefs simply don't have on tape.
This isn't a new theory. The Chiefs themselves have told us this. Mahomes alluded to it week after week in his pressers.

This isn't so much a theory as it is a fact.

It's a contributor to slowing the Chiefs down. But it's the turnovers that are resulting in the loss of points overall.
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ThaVirus 10:17 AM 11-29-2021
A bit off topic, but there is definitely a league-wide trend. INTs seem to be way up.

We've still got a month and a half to play and pretty much every top QB except Rodgers, Cousins, Prescott and Wentz has 9+ INTs.

Mahomes has 11. Brady, Stafford and Carr all have 9. Herbert and Allen have 10. Burrow and Jackson have 12. Tannehill has 13.

All those who don't have at least 8 INTs have struggled to crack 15 TDs.
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BleedingRed 10:22 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by ThaVirus:
A bit off topic, but there is definitely a league-wide trend. INTs seem to be way up.

We've still got a month and a half to play and pretty much every top QB except Rodgers, Cousins, Prescott and Wentz has 9+ INTs.

Mahomes has 11. Brady, Stafford and Carr all have 9. Herbert and Allen have 10. Burrow and Jackson have 12. Tannehill has 13.

All those who don't have at least 8 INTs have struggled to crack 15 TDs.
Well I think the trend honestly has to do with a very down year for running backs.

I don't know how good my perception is. But I really feel like the running games across the league have been very poor or injury plagued.
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DJ's left nut 10:26 AM 11-29-2021
I'd buy this argument more for the Titans and Bills games, where it seemed like we just couldn't find any space to work at all.

But the Giants, Packers and Cowboys games were games where we were leaving points all over the field by just committing unforced errors. And the problem has been that it's been wholesale. It's not just one or two guys committing errors in predicable situations. It's EVERYONE having 2-3 mistakes/gm that kill off plays and ultimately drives.

Every game seem to have 10+ instances of just bad mistakes. Drops, bad passes, wrong routes, fumbles, unnecessary penalties. You have to expect a handful of those every game but we're just doing it too much and too consistently.

When 3-5 drives seem to die each game due to an error that just didn't have to happen, that's a hell of a limiter on your offense.
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vonBobo 10:28 AM 11-29-2021
If it were that easy to slow down a premiere QB, then all teams would swap defenses every week.
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Detoxing 10:30 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by -King-:
So every team has their own super secret version of a two high defense that Reid and Mahomes have never seen until game day?
No. It's more that weeks 1-9 a team played defense a certain way. Then on week 10 when they play the Chiefs, they completely change up what they were doing. So the Chiefs, who had been studying film on a team's past 4+ weeks end up seeing a defense that they hadn't prepped for.

They lose some of their schematic advantages from film study, and they end up with matchups they may have not anticipated. And they likely end up with a number of plays they have to toss out the window. They effectively have to prepare for two defenses. The defense X team normally plays, and the cover 2 high shells they've been seeing. And when they do see those shells, it includes matchups, tendencies and packages that the Chiefs haven't seen from that team. Each team of course having its own unique wrinkles and personnel packages.

I know, i know. The Chiefs should be just preparing to see a 2-high shell. And they are. But the turnovers are killing them.

And when you take away some of those scripted plays that the Chiefs design to beat the defense's more vulnerable looks you end up with an offense that seemingly lacks "burst".
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DJ's left nut 10:31 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by vonBobo:
If it were that easy to slow down a premiere QB, then all teams would swap defenses every week.
Yeah.

I just think this idea that there's some panacea that's been unlocked to shutting down elite offenses/QBs is overplayed.

"Teams have just decided not to give up big plays!"

Oh really? As though through the rise of the passing game over the last 20+ years nobody had previously attempted to 'prevent big plays'?

This was a slump from our QB compounded by an array of undisciplined errors. They're just not as focused as they need to be. And also, some of them are just beat up and/or playing right at the edge of their ability so that leads to a few more errors as well.

There's not some magical fix here. And if there is, it damn sure isn't playing an antiquated and passive defense like a Cover 2 shell.
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htismaqe 10:32 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I'd buy this argument more for the Titans and Bills games, where it seemed like we just couldn't find any space to work at all.

But the Giants, Packers and Cowboys games were games where we were leaving points all over the field by just committing unforced errors. And the problem has been that it's been wholesale. It's not just one or two guys committing errors in predicable situations. It's EVERYONE having 2-3 mistakes/gm that kill off plays and ultimately drives.

Every game seem to have 10+ instances of just bad mistakes. Drops, bad passes, wrong routes, fumbles, unnecessary penalties. You have to expect a handful of those every game but we're just doing it too much and too consistently.

When 3-5 drives seem to die each game due to an error that just didn't have to happen, that's a hell of a limiter on your offense.
This.

Better execution = more points.

They can beat the Cover 2, they've shown they can. They just have to be patient and not make stupid mistakes. Until the last couple of weeks, they weren't doing either.
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Marcellus 10:35 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Deberg_1990:
Mahomes just needs to take what the defense gives him. Stop being so impatient at times.
Ill take tired old media tropes for $1000 Alex.
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DJ's left nut 10:36 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
This.

Better execution = more points.

They can beat the Cover 2, they've shown they can. They just have to be patient and not make stupid mistakes. Until the last couple of weeks, they weren't doing either.
I don't even think they're being impatient anymore. Mahomes is absolutely looking underneath.

But the 'take what the defense gives you' approach requires 10-12 fairly crisp plays and with the number of mistakes we're making, we just can't get there. Suddenly we're on a 3rd and long and Mahomes - who to his credit will NOT throw short of the sticks on 3rd - attempts to force the issue on 3rd and people say "well why didn't he just take what he was given!?!?"

Because getting 6 on 3rd and 10 is some Alex Smith bullshit that we don't need or want him doing. Meanwhile had Hardman turned upfield after he caught a ball (if he caught it) or Kelce had held on over the middle or someone not jumped early on 2nd down, we'd have been looking at a conversion on 3rd and 5.

Take what they give you means NOT giving it back when they do. It means precision and a level of execution that is simply higher than the longer developing downfield routes we'd become accustomed to.

But the mindset is shifting - we just need to execute it better.
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DJ's left nut 10:37 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Ill take tired old media tropes for $1000 Alex.
Yup.

This is just an idiotic talking head narrative being spouted by national guys who aren't watching this team, just looking at the box scores.

Mahomes is absolutely looking for quick passes and Reid is dialing up coverage breakers.

The scheme isn't the problem. And the QBs mindset isn't a problem at this point either. It's just a team scuffling a bit - shit happens.
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PunkinDrublic 10:39 AM 11-29-2021
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I'd buy this argument more for the Titans and Bills games, where it seemed like we just couldn't find any space to work at all.

But the Giants, Packers and Cowboys games were games where we were leaving points all over the field by just committing unforced errors. And the problem has been that it's been wholesale. It's not just one or two guys committing errors in predicable situations. It's EVERYONE having 2-3 mistakes/gm that kill off plays and ultimately drives.

Every game seem to have 10+ instances of just bad mistakes. Drops, bad passes, wrong routes, fumbles, unnecessary penalties. You have to expect a handful of those every game but we're just doing it too much and too consistently.

When 3-5 drives seem to die each game due to an error that just didn't have to happen, that's a hell of a limiter on your offense.
This and the fact that making the AFC championship and back to back Super Bowls means we were going to get everyone’s best game from the Baltimore’s, Buffalo’s and Tennessee’s. Coming out of the gate teams were going to give us their best shot.
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