I appreciate that. He actually ended up on my radar watching Trey Smith tape last year after we drafted him.

I do think NFL teams draft for upside, so him sliding to the second would not surprise me. But this team needs to lean into what they are: an angry, smashmouth, downhill offensive line. Wright completes the set, I think.
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S Christopher Smith II, Georgia

Well as I review more and more safety prospects, it becomes increasingly clear that if the Chiefs are not fully sold on S Bryan Cook as a full time replacement for the departing S Juan Thornhill, but they don't want to drop the coin to keep Thornhill, they have a plethora of options in the 2nd round. Christopher Smith joins prospects like S Brandon Joseph, S JL Skinner, and S Jordan Battle as guys who make a ton of sense as Chiefs safeties. But that's also what happens with your defensive coordinator is a genius, anyways.

Smith himself, like a few of the players above, is another swiss army knife that can be slotted deep (his best location), play very tight coverage in the slot, or man up in the box. He will always be at a size disadvantage in the box or against most tight ends, but is excellent in coverage and can be counted on to hang with most receivers, or simply keep the coverage sturdy on the back end. He can also be counted on to be a locker room leader.

Chris Smith is slightly more diminutive S Justin Reid. So I suppose the question is: how long do you plan on keeping Justin Reid around? The Chiefs clearly love him, and the role he's played at helping to develop the five rookie DBs the Chiefs drafted cannot be overstated. For a team facing cap crunches, however, Reid is very cuttable in 2024, with a $14m cap hit and a cap savings of $10.7. Drafting Chris Smith in the 2nd round would be your answer to that question.
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S Trey Dean III, Florida

This is kind of a fortuitous review of Dean in terms of timing; earlier today he snagged an interception in the East-West Shrine Bowl. But the conversation we end up having about Dean, who is likely to be one of the more polarizing players in this draft, is how much you value the traditional in-the-box safety. Maybe I do more than I should, after watching opposing defenses tee off on our receivers over the middle all year, while S Juan Thornhill and LB Nick Bolton are basically playing two hand touch. The Chiefs need more nasty over the middle, and it doesn't look like that aspect of S Bryan Cook's game has translated.

Now, Dean is not a pure box safety, as he is very good in coverage, at least against tight ends. But he is not super useful anywhere else. Against slot receivers he is liable to get roasted. I'm not fully sold on his straight line athleticism either, but perhaps the Combine can change my mind. He plays instinctual too, which allows him to make some highlight plays, and also allows him to get exposed. He's basically S Johnathan Abram. How much do you value his play?

I like the nasty, and this team needs more of that, especially in the box and over the middle. I just think his style of play may be less valuable than other safeties in this class. He may be on the board in the 5th, but honestly I may hold on until the 6th to make that move.
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I really like Chris Smith but I don't think KC is opting for a safety in round 2 again.

As for Dean, I agree with you. He's a 5th or 6th-round guy that is a liability in coverage. I think the best thing for Dean is to gain 15 pounds and play WLB.

I just don't think you draft him as a safety unless it's purely as a guy you want to play special teams and as an absolute emergency SS.
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CB Tiawan Mullen, Indiana

The average NFL team fields a large roster and requires depth and a cap crunch that forces a lot of turnover and a constant need for cheap rookies. As a result, it is rare that there is a position on a football team that is as near-completely satisfied as the CB position is going to be on the 2023 Chiefs roster. Already four deep, and maybe five deep if you're a fan of CB Nazeeh Johnson, the Chiefs are only looking at corner in 2023 if there's insane value or an intriguing late rounder.

I don't know if Mullen, brother of NFL CB Trayvon Mullen, is either of those, but he could be. Mullen looks a lot like Steven Nelson did; a 5'10" corner who is very sticky in coverage and can stay in the hip pockets of nearly all receivers he faced in 2022. He's just not useful above the shoulders, however; again, much like Steven Nelson was. He's useless in jumpball situations, and god help him if he has to face down a fade route against a 6'3" receiver with a good vertical.

It's very common to say this about smaller corners, but it is a rule that is largely proven by Mullen. He is very good in mirroring and running with receivers, and I imagine he'll test well. But an NFL defense will have to figure how to best position him so that he is not having to climb the ladder against professional receivers who make a living out of climbing the ladder. Perhaps the Chiefs can make something of that, but I'll wait until the 7th before I risk finding out.
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S Beejay Willamson, Louisiana Tech

How bad do you need a core special teamer with some on field upside? That's the general impression I've gotten from watching and reading about Williamson. A lanky corner who could develop into a nifty box safety with an offseason in an NFL strength and conditioning program, Williamson is somewhat adept in coverage, but I'd like to see how he tests in the Combine, because I think he lacks some fluidity for effective mirroring. Conference USA didn't punish him for it very often, but the NFL sure could.

I sure like his fire, though, and he seems to be a hyper aware player. He hits with authority, but more importantly he just seems to be a technically sound tackler. He has good hands and makes the most of the ball being in the air in snagging range.

We've seen some of the moaning this season about ST Coordinator Dave Toub not having a real special teams core. Well Williamson may deserve a late round pick, but I'd be more willing to wait out the draft and pick him up as a free agent afterwards to see if I could build him into something. At the very least, he'd stock up that special teams core.
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LB Mike Jones Jr., LSU

I don't know what this team thinks of LB Jack Cochrane, but they're about to have some depth issues after their three high draftees in the wake of LB Darius Harris moving on. They might be able to use someone with Mike Jones' skillset anyway, as two of the three starting LBs this team has are downhill hitters, even though LB Willie Gay is now showing versatility at playing uphill and downhill. That doesn't change the fact that earlier this year, Gay was getting so burnt against the Bengals in Week 13 that they yanked him and put Harris in. The Chiefs need more coverage talent in the LB room.

Jones offers that. In the LB Nick Bolton mode, he's not going to be as adept pounding into the line of scrimmage, but a 230 lbs linebacker that is athletic enough to get a lot of depth on his drops and smother tight ends out of their brakes is going to be valubable over the next 10 years. I don't know if Jones is going to get drafted on the second day, but he should. But not by the Chiefs, who've spent second-day picks on LB for the past three years.

Jones' depth in his drops is rare. He shows a real stickiness that you're more used to seeing from safety. That said, he might be limited to third down, obvious passing situations, but I'm willing to see what his size/power is at the Combine. Maybe that can be coached into him, but personally I'm in the Leo Chenal state of mind where slamming into the line of scrimmage is more of a mindset than anything. I think Jones is a sleeper to slip up draft boards.
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TE Arik Gilbert, Georgia

This player has the feel of an Andy Reid special. A physically gifted tight end with a gigantic catch radius, large size and uncommon suddenness? With everybody talking about his even more physically insane teammate as a 1st round pick, let us not sleep on this guy. Because he also comes with huge character concerns and maturity questions. But so did somebody else Andy Reid drafted who ended up in the GOAT conversation.

Gilbert has a ton of what Kelce brought to the table. It's possible he explodes in the Combine with amazing hands and great speed. When you watch him getting in and out of breaks... like, this is not a guy with TE Darnell Washington's long speed, but his intermediate cuts and releases are so clean. SO clean. I'll be interesting to see how he interviews at the Combine.

It's hard to see how this works out in Kansas City. They already have a GOAT starter, and a good backup they spent a 5th round pick on. But the Chiefs may be load-managing Kelce in the coming years, and they're going to need a sufficiently deep TE room to do it. Is a guy with this much upside worth a 3rd round pick? I'd really, really think about it. He's a slam dunk in the 4th.
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TE Will Mallory, Miami

With at least 11 picks in the 2023 draft, and a projected five or six picks in the last two rounds, the Chiefs will again have a lot of ammo to hunt for great value and roster contributors with 6th and 7th round picks. Mallory may fit the mold, as an athletic pass catching tight end with good hands and size, but lacks route running and run blocking technique.

Fortunately for him, the Chiefs are likely to return restricted free agent TE Jody Fortson and could always bring back TE Blake Bell if they wanted to, affording Mallory a necessary redshirting season to get stronger, more physically imposing, and refine his technique in both the blocking and the passing game. He's not that far off from Noah Gray, who isn't a particularly good route runner but can reel in passes when the opportunity calls for it.

Spending a 7th rounder on Mallory assures you that you will have a roster-able tight end who can play functional snaps for the next three to four years. If you can coach a ton of technique into him, a career as a TE2 in this offense is perfectly conceivable.
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OT/G Nick Broeker, Ole Miss

Broeker on paper is intriguing; Broeker on tape is disappointing. Let me introduce you to both.

Broeker on paper is exactly what this team needs. Like all teams in the NFL, the Chiefs are in a constant churn for offensive line depth. OG/C Nick Allegretti and OT/G Andrew Wylie are free agents, as is backup center Austin Reiter and OT Prince Tega Wenogho. OT Lucas Niang is all that stands, and he very well may be the starting RT in 2023. Broeker comes in with experience at four different offensive line positions. He offers nimble feet and awesome durability. He's athletic and looks great when asked to pull. He gives you a depth option as a swing tackle and could be an heir apparent to Pro Bowl LG Joe Thuney.

The problem is the tape. Broeker's tape this past year is just crappy. It's disappointing. The measurables, the record is all there. But he struggles to get push in the run game, he can get walked back in the pass game. He has the athleticism to get out in space, but lacks the discipline to properly capitalize on that. His tape is just really disappointing.

So what's the answer? Maybe draft him late. On paper he makes a ton of sense, but you're going to have to subject him to an NFL strength and conditioning program, and coach better technique into him. If his interviews suggest a coachable workaholic, that's worth as much as a 5th if you ask me -- he has that much promise. For now, I'll revert back to saying he's a 6th or 7th rounder.
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He played LT up until this year when he moved inside to guard. I just think it's a strength issue to start out with. He's going to need to play guard and I think once he gets there with the strength he's going to be pretty good.

This year's IOL class is extremely weak overall. I'd have to think he'll be a 4th rounder and might even flirt with the 3rd round based on traits.

A couple of other guys with solid traits that could end up there that you may want to review are Braeden Daniels from Utah and Caleb Chandler from Louisville. I like their athleticism and growth potential.

We don't have a need for a starter on the IOL or I'd be calling on Jarrett Patterson from Notre Dame. He's a good-looking center that has also played guard. I think he's going late 2 or in 3.

I haven't studied the shit out of the IOL this year because I just don't see some gaping need if they bring back Wylie or Allegretti or both.
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DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh

This is destined to be my most unpopular player projection, because it's tied to the fate of DT Chris Jones. There is a non-zero chance this team elects not to extend Jones, right? Mahomes is due $137.4m over the next three years. $137m. If the Chiefs need to pay Jones, say, $100m over three years, then you're talking about roughly 35% of your cap going forward tied to two players. Two incredible players, but two players. There is a very real chance that can't work.

And if it can't, you've got Chris Jones for one more year (or less, if you trade him off). As a result, the Chiefs are going to be aching for penetration in the middle of the defensive line. DT Tershawn Wharton is a fine player, but he's a role player. Calijah Kancey out of Pittsburgh is not a fine player. He is a ferocious force of nature, and has some of the best film of any player in the draft. He fascinates me, because you think this guy, a mere 6'1", 275 lbs, should be run over, but he's too clean in his technique. He disengages fast, he shoots a gap as fast as Dee Ford does on the edge. This isn't DT Aaron Donald, but he may very well be DT Tommy Harris.

Obviously the biggest problem is the size. He's going to get road graded his rookie year, and can only really be trusted in obvious passing situations. He's going to pack on pounds, and he's going to need to work overtime in an NFL strength and conditioning program. But I wouldn't bet against this sucker, hell no. And since Jones and (probably) Wharton will be on the roster, you can bring him along slowly as he develops for a year. But Chris Jones is the straw that stirs the drink on Kansas City's defense, and if he doesn't come back, you're going to need to make huge investments there. Kancey, with his size limitations, is a fascinating selection to do that in the 2nd round.
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Gilbert transfered to Nebraska for this upcoming year. We will see if he even plays there's serious questions about his mental health.
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Has anyne discussed BJ Thompson? He made Darnell Wright look silly on a couple of reps. He's still a little undersized but I bet he moves up boards pretty quick.I'd love him as an athletic projection from R5 on, suspect someone pulls the trigger earlier.
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I love him. I know lots of people are "the next Aaron Donald" and unsurprisingly that doesn't pan out. But the get off and hands are top notch. He's going to be an immediate problem for guards on pass-rush reps
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