Clemson WR Justyn Ross is signing with the #Chiefs to their 90-man roster, per source.
Ross led the ACC in receiving as a freshman in 2018, ranked fifth nationally with 21.7 YPC and was second in receiving touchdowns. He also stands 6-3, 210 pounds. High quality addition for
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
Mahomes will get his TDs. It doesn't matter who he's throwing to.
I don't actually care if he throws them or runs them, or somebody else runs them in. gotta score them somehow. I just don't currently trust the WR room to score their percentage of them. Not how it sits right now anyway. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
We have to use past production because we obviously can't use future production. And I fudged the numbers for both Skyy and Toney several times, because obviously we don't have hardly any production to speak of, so we have to extrapolate some realistic numbers. Last weekend I even fudged numbers for Justin Watson and Noah Gray.
But there are actual mins a team needs to get to in order to have a serious shot at the playoffs. They vary depending on the team, but they exist for each team.
So, just for example, if we look at the Chiefs defense for the last four years and average out a bunch of stats, we find that overall the Chiefs defense allows 75% of teams to score their average. Which coincidentally is right about what our defense allowed last season.
So, take LAC. They basically will score about 26 points vs. the Chiefs. KC tends to score 28+ against LAC. Shockingly, most of the games between KC and LAC are decided by a FG or so, and KC wins most of those games.
When KC plays most any AFC team, the defense allows right about their scoring average, and the Chiefs offense, until 2022, scored nearly a TD more than what the opposing defense usually gave up against anyone else.
Against most NFC teams the Chiefs tend to score nearly a TD above their average, as opposed to AFC teams, no idea why.
Anyway, I can take all those numbers and come up with a basic idea of how many TDs, 1st downs, 3rd down conversions, RZ efficiency, etc. it would take KC to probably get into the playoffs. It wouldn't be precise, but it would be in the ballpark. They won't tell me which games we'll win, but it will tell me indirectly roughly how many TDs KC will need to earn a playoff seed, as long as the defense plays at least as well as they have over the last four years. If the defense somehow craps out, then obviously all that math goes out the window.
It's about the only thing all those season total stats are really good for anyway. Looking at larger sets of numbers, like over a couple years, over five years, whatever.
Anyway, the point is, we can ballpark it. So it's not exactly true that we don't know how many TDs/1st downs/etc. we need. We have enough data to make a decent guess.
Sure, sort of. But it's pseudo-science. The defense four years ago has exactly one player on it for 2023. Oh wait, two, forgot Nnadi. So, totally different guys. Very different strengths and skillsets. And even 2022's defensive stats don't tell us a lot about what 2023's defense will perform like, because we played 6 rookies, with McDuffie missing over half of the season. So even comparing '22 and '23 isn't apples to apples considering they were over half rookies last year.
The '21 defense was like...28th in sacks. '22 we were 2nd, with 55. Big difference. But with a youthful secondary they gave up a lot of points the first half of the season before settling in. Also schedule played a part. So there are a lot of moving parameters and you can't really just take a broad swipe and get a clear picture.
Now, we were first in yards, and first in scoring. If you're telling me that not only do we have to lead the league in yards and scoring again, but we have to at least match our totals from last year (again, in a vacuum, ignoring all of the variables of each team) in order to contend for a championship again, I say hogwash.
It's possible. But I doubt it. I don't Veach and Andy feel that way, or they wouldn't have invested so heavily in the defense last year.
And I'll tell you this-If Mahomes stays healthy, and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes don't put a top five offense on the field, I'll eat YOUR shorts.
I'll cover those skivvies in Zim's sauce and choke 'em down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
I don't actually care if he throws them or runs them, or somebody else runs them in. gotta score them somehow. I just don't currently trust the WR room to score their percentage of them. Not how it sits right now anyway.
I know you don't.
But it's April.
And they're clearly going young at the position, so you're probably not going to feel great about in August either.
There's going to be a lot of projection at the position, and not much past production to lean on.
And that's okay. These guys know what they're doing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I know you don't.
But it's April.
And they're clearly going young at the position, so you're probably not going to feel great about in August either.
There's going to be a lot of projection at the position, and not much past production to lean on.
And that's okay. These guys know what they're doing.
I know they're going to figure it out just fine.
But it's fun to try and guess what they're up to. Plus, if I agree with you now, then what the heck do i get to talk about for the next three-four months? Have you seen some of the dumbass threads on here right now?
And if I turn out to be right, I get to brag about it for a day.:-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
I know they're going to figure it out just fine.
But it's fun to try and guess what they're up to. Plus, if I agree with you now, then what the heck do i get to talk about for the next three-four months? Have you seen some of the dumbass threads on here right now?
And if I turn out to be right, I get to brag about it for a day.:-)
My prediction is they'll bring back Watson and Mckinnon on minimal deals.
Watson gives you the bigger body, but can also run, so you have MVS insurance, as well as a guy who can spell some of the Juju routes when you want the bigger body, or in case of injury to either Toney (due to his speed) or Skyy (who's probably taking the Juju role of short/intermediate targets). He's not as good as any of them, but will know the book and can fill in at any spot. You're hoping he's WR4 or WR5, and not needed to be more, but just in case. If he's the worst guy in your room, you're in good shape.
And they'll draft a guy in the first three rounds. Given that they like Toney, who's the human joystick, and Skyy, who's more the shifty possession guy, I think it will be either A)A speed demon they plan to replace MVS next year, or B)A bigger bodied 'X' type guy to fill the Juju role with more upside. Like a Rice, or a Perry, or Tillman, or Mingo. Whoever it is will start with a small package of plays, and they'll build on it. But I wouldn't expect a ton of numbers in year one.
And yeah, we'll probably run a lot of 12 and 13 again, and we'll throw to our backs, and the TE's a lot.
And that's okay. It'll be fine.
I'd just about bet that they don't take MORE than one WR though, especially if they bring back Watson. There's just not enough snaps to develop more than one rookie at a time I don't think, not while you're actively trying to win a Super Bowl. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
My prediction is they'll bring back Watson and Mckinnon on minimal deals.
Watson gives you the bigger body, but can also run, so you have MVS insurance, as well as a guy who can spell some of the Juju routes when you want the bigger body, or in case of injury to either Toney (due to his speed) or Skyy (who's probably taking the Juju role of short/intermediate targets). He's not as good as any of them, but will know the book and can fill in at any spot. You're hoping he's WR4 or WR5, and not needed to be more, but just in case. If he's the worst guy in your room, you're in good shape.
And they'll draft a guy in the first three rounds. Given that they like Toney, who's the human joystick, and Skyy, who's more the shifty possession guy, I think it will be either A)A speed demon they plan to replace MVS next year, or B)A bigger bodied 'X' type guy to fill the Juju role with more upside. Like a Rice, or a Perry, or Tillman, or Mingo. Whoever it is will start with a small package of plays, and they'll build on it. But I wouldn't expect a ton of numbers in year one.
And yeah, we'll probably run a lot of 12 and 13 again, and we'll throw to our backs, and the TE's a lot.
And that's okay. It'll be fine.
I'd just about bet that they don't take MORE than one WR though, especially if they bring back Watson. There's just not enough snaps to develop more than one rookie at a time I don't think, not while you're actively trying to win a Super Bowl.
And that's fine in theory.
But there's not much margin for error there. I mean, sure, if MVS/Skyy go down for any length of time, we can likely make do with Gray, Fortson, McKinnon if he comes back.
But if Toney goes down, it gets harder. And as amazing as Andy is, he can't scheme guys open on every snap. That's not a thing; a lot of the time guys are just going to have to win, and early.
If Travis goes down, it gets a lot harder. Like we're losing games, harder. There's no plug-and-play substitute for Travis, and I'm not just talking about the numbers. It's his ability to adapt, modify, adjust and convert routes in the biggest situations that lead to Ws. Noah Gray is a decent TE, he ain't doing that stuff. No one currently on the team is doing that, except maybe Toney, and a ton of that would depend of his creativity and situational awareness, which comes in large part from experience, which he doesn't yet have.
Which is where I find myself coming back to 'Veach has to sign a veteran WR.' Not just for the numbers, but for the experience. Especially if we're going to run with a young, injury-prone, inexperienced and lightly talented WR room. That experience could mean the difference between going to another SB in 2023 or not.
Think about it: In SBLIV, that catch Watkins got over Sherman probably doesn't happen if the WR there is some rookie. And do we win that SB if Sammy is some rookie?
When Watkins realized Sherman was going to play man with outside leverage, Sammy knew he was going to stack him and beat him over the top, and he knew that Pat saw the same exact thing.
Is a rook going to see that in that moment? Or is that a moment that a veteran needs to see. [Reply]
Which is where I find myself coming back to 'Veach has to sign a veteran WR.' Not just for the numbers, but for the experience. Especially if we're going to run with a young, injury-prone, inexperienced and lightly talented WR room. That experience could mean the difference between going to another SB in 2023 or not.
Ok, well, there's a fair amount of hyperbole here in your hypotheticals.
Yeah, if MVS, Toney, and Kelce all go down, we're kind of going to struggle. Duh.
But you're being over the top judging the WR room.
If you want to argue that you're not comfortable with the lack of proven production, I won't even argue against that. That's inarguable.
But injury prone? One guy, Toney. It's mostly hamstrings. I have to believe there's a training regimen that can get some extra flexibility in your hammies and that The Chiefs have him working on that. I mean, if they're planning on him being the '#1WR' as has been reported, then that would seem to be implicit. They're not stupid. But yeah, you've got one guy that's been an injury concern.
Young? Absolutely. Is that a challenge? You bet. If Andy's signing off on it, he's comfortable and knowing what we know of Big Red, he's probably looking forward to the challenge.
'lightly talented'? Get outta here with that shit. This ain't Pringle and Drob.
I'm sure they will sign a vet. I'm also pretty sure it'll be Watson. It makes too much sense not to, since he'll be in year two of the offense, and he can sub in at any position. [Reply]
I agree with Meck in that it's kind of just the way you've gotta go right now. With Mahomes and the OL making what they are making, you've gotta get some cheap value somewhere.
I think they end up drafting a guy fairly early somewhere just from a numbers perspective they kinda have to. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BossChief:
I bet Veach drafts 2 WRs, unless he brings Watson back and signs a guy like OBJ, then he will only take 1.
I could see him drafting 3 WRs and attacking the position similarly to how he attacked the CBS last year.
I mean…Veach straight up let Hardman and Juju walk without making much of an attempt at all at re-signing either player.
I would agree except that it makes year one a red-shirt season for a draftee. As we saw with Moore, you kind of have to play the kids to grow them.
This offense is known for being difficult, and the Chiefs insist the WR's understand all of the positions (I would think so that they have a full understanding of the spacing and how the route combinations work together).
I look at what Green Bay did with Christian Watson; he was terrible the first half of the season, but a TD machine once he got up to speed. If you have a full complement of vets ahead of a rookie, he's not going to see the field.
If you're committing to youth, you have to give them a path to play through the newbie mistakes.
But you need a vet guy as insurance; just not a guy that's going to block the youngsters. I think Justin Watson is a perfect candidate. He's a guy that you're not screwed if you have to play him, he can play any of the spots and give you a credible threat, but he's not going to be in the way of any young talent. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
I would agree except that it makes year one a red-shirt season for a draftee. As we saw with Moore, you kind of have to play the kids to grow them.
This offense is known for being difficult, and the Chiefs insist the WR's understand all of the positions (I would think so that they have a full understanding of the spacing and how the route combinations work together).
I look at what Green Bay did with Christian Watson; he was terrible the first half of the season, but a TD machine once he got up to speed. If you have a full complement of vets ahead of a rookie, he's not going to see the field.
If you're committing to youth, you have to give them a path to play through the newbie mistakes.
But you need a vet guy as insurance; just not a guy that's going to block the youngsters. I think Justin Watson is a perfect candidate. He's a guy that you're not screwed if you have to play him, he can play any of the spots and give you a credible threat, but he's not going to be in the way of any young talent.
I think this is probably spot on. Now, if they can get OBJ for an incentive laden contract with a lower base, I think they jump on it. But barring that (and I think its probably unlikely), I think Watson comes back and WR in the second (unless one of the top 5 WRs somehow slide late first). I'd love to see them grab a guy like Tillman in the second. [Reply]
