Necessary disclaimer #1: What I'm saying right now is what the rest of you are doing: projecting the season and how good this team is.
Necessary disclaimer #2: I may be awfully handsome, but I am not a god. I understand that I am wrong sometimes and may be wrong on this.
Necessary disclaimer #3: I really only care about talking football, and not the assumed upsides and/or downsides of my personality, which you probably don't like.
Almost all the time I spend exercising or working alone or driving, I'm dialing up a Chiefs podcast. I listen to more than most: Time's Ours, Locked On, It's Always Sunny In Chiefs Kingdom, KCSN, 4th and 1, Arrowhead Addict, Arrowhead Pride, Roughing the Kicker. I don't catch all of it but I catch a lot of it.
And this past week, after breaking down the roster, several of these podcasts are, I think, overshooting what the '22 Chiefs may be capable of.
These podcasters -- with the lone exception of Nick Jacobs, whose opinions I find pretty "grounded" -- are all predicting a Super Bowl season. And while that's to be expected of Chiefs-friendly media, it sure as **** makes Chiefs Kingdom toxic by Week 10 as the Chiefs are, say, 5-4 and still trying to get their roster figured out. "We should be the go away favorites for the 1 seed!" we're all being primed to spout in November, when the Chiefs may be trying to just hold onto the AFCW. I just listened to three straight Chiefs podcasts predict the Super Bowl unanimously among their hosts, including KC Lab on KCSN, which is normally more grounded. Maybe Kissel's infected them, I don't know.
I appreciate optimism, but routinely predicting a 13-4 or 14-3 schedule against a bear of a calendar with a rookie secondary and a DL held together with scotch tape is irresponsible. Argue all you want that podcasts have no responsibility, and legally you're right. But if you want to be seen as credible, then c'mon now. Anchor yourselves.
I volunteer as tribute as the Chiefs fan on this board who thinks the Chiefs are going to be very, very good this year but on the outside looking in when it comes to the Super Bowl. Pat Kirwan is one of my favorite analysts and he famously (to me) said on Moving the Chains that "you get two ifs, and that's it." And I think this team exceeds two ifs before we're just pie-in-the-sky dreaming.
Mahomes and Reid are Mahomes and Reid. They are incredible, and when they're clicking, unstoppable. Kelce is a top 3 TE all time. JuJu, Watson, McKinnon, Fortson all have a good rapport with him right now. But it is not yet clear to me that this receiving corps can improve or even match the incredible work Tyreek put in last year. Coming as a guy who hates Tyreek's guts as a human being, there's no question he is just a cheat code who can do things nobody else can do and that there are few answers for. I think the logic of having a team with a ton of options for Mahomes makes sense. But this team is going to have to give MVS a lot of snaps to justify his contract, and I'm not high on him. Skyy and Mecole are a rookie and Mecole. JuJu looks like a damn steal, but all these things in the aggregate... I'm not sure they match what Hill did.
It's possible though, because Mahomes and Reid.
The secondary has a lot of promise, but we're completely lying to ourselves about them. This is a roster corps that we know is built with rookies, and we consistently, collectively know will have "growing pains" -- which is the same thing these podcasters recognize while predicting 13-win seasons. If you're winning 13 games, you're not having growing pains!
Spags is a god at taking a pretty talented secondary and making it look great, so that's an area I know we'll be set at long-term. But growing pains means this secondary is going to have embarrassing blown coverages and bad games that will rack up a couple more losses than they should. I think that Trent McDuffie's camp and preseason has shown a lot of promise that I was skeptical of. It's still undeniable that he's had some bumps along the way and that's going to continue as he develops in live games. Watson and Williams look really good as rookies -- they're going to still get roasted by the AFCW's gamut of excellent receivers. The learning curve can only curve up so fast.
It's possible they're fine, though, because Spags.
But those aren't the two things I think will be really problematic for the team.
First, I don't see solutions for this DL, unless Karlaftis is a truly game-changing talent, which is somebody else than he's shown so far, immediately out of the gate. Aside from Karlaftis (who I think is going to be a really great rookie but is already earning predictions to beat Derrick Thomas' record), the DE position is just not very good. Even Karlaftis, who put some great snaps on tape, is still miles away from the ceiling he's going to reach (that's not a criticism, I don't think: he's a rookie). I have no faith in Clark, I am extremely reticent about the Achilles that Dunlap has, as are the Chiefs who kept 6 DEs just to make sure we'll have bodies. Danna is a rotational guy who's fine. We should have found a way to land Robert Quinn.
The DT position has taken a step backward, I think. We all dumped on Jarran Reed, who didn't justify his contract last year, but he offered some passrushing with good run defense, a combo none of our other DTs have, other than Chris Jones, who is amazing. Nnadi got pushed around a bit in the preseason and offers no passrush, Wharton is always going to be who he is, and Saunders remains a frustrating question mark. Saunders did play well in the preseason, which... I'll just say if Saunders reaches his potential, our DL is going to wreck people. But I've been saying that for a year now.
Thank god our linebackers are amazing, because that will make up for some of the deficiencies of the DTs in front of them. We will not be a bottom 5 rush defense, but we could very realistically be a bottom third unit who Buffalo, Ravens, and Broncos run right over. And our passrush is going to be right where it was last year.
The other big problem I have is out of the Chiefs control: the schedule is just brutal. We face a Chargers team that may very well be better than us, plus Tom Brady in the first four weeks. We play both of the Super Bowl contenders. We play everybody who was in the conference championship games. I would personally argue that the 2022 AFC West is the best division we've ever seen (even better than the 2021 NFC West initially looked and mostly was). And there's a stretch we play three road games consecutively -- which I don't think is very common. I personally struggle to recall the last time we did that? My memory fails me sometimes.
The Chargers loaded up their DL and secondary, finally have an OL and a ton of weapons. The Raiders I'm never super worried about but Adams vs. a rookie secondary will be interesting. The Bills have the best roster in the league right now and I would argue the Bengals got better. I'm not super worried about Russell Wilson but that Broncos team may click. We're going to have to beat some combo of the Chargers, Bills, and Bengals to get to the Super Bowl. Any two of them is a murderer's row.
Chiefs podcasters are high on their own supply, overlooking problems both manageable and less manageable, to predict the Chiefs are Super Bowl shoo-ins. The Chiefs have a major problem at DL which I fear is going to be their Achilles all season, and a brutal schedule that will take more losses from the team than perhaps this roster deserves. I also have some comparably minor concerns: the rookie secondary, which I think will cost us games, and apparently all of these podcasts think we can replace Hill in the aggregate, whereas I'm not so sure.
Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. Let's argue. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Mathieu's play on the field was not as bad down the stretch as we make it out to be. There were not games where he was being exposed with any regularity. He was a king-sized distraction off the field, however.
Sorensen and Niemann were horrendous and have been thankfully upgraded.
But, yes. I think the DL is the most important position on the team other than QB. And we're just not investing in it the way I'd like us to.
Our staff had to have looked at this defense and the first thing sticking out couldn’t have been the pass rush. It wasn’t even the first 3 things. What stuck out to me was this: we could not cover, we were slow and there was no passion or identity anymore.
Anthony Hitchens? Old and slow. Daniel Sorenson? Old and slow. Tyrann Matheiu? Old and didn’t care anymore. Mike Hughes? Terrible. Ben Neimann? Slow and terrible.
We had to replace 3 starters in our secondary + depth. It just had to happen. Go watch that Bills playoff game and tell me the secondary wasn’t the biggest problem?
The pass rush is definitely a big question mark but I think next year will be heavily focused on upgrading that in a major way.
I don’t think we’re going to the SB, but another championship game appearance wouldn’t surprise me. I do think that if this class hits for us it opens up so many possibilities the next 3 years.
Money will be available, lots of draft picks and young cheap talent spread across the roster. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Our staff had to have looked at this defense and the first thing sticking out couldn’t have been the pass rush. It wasn’t even the first 3 things. What stuck out to me was this: we could not cover, we were slow and there was no passion or identity anymore.
Anthony Hitchens? Old and slow. Daniel Sorenson? Old and slow. Tyrann Matheiu? Old and didn’t care anymore. Mike Hughes? Terrible. Ben Neimann? Slow and terrible.
We had to replace 3 starters in our secondary + depth. It just had to happen. Go watch that Bills playoff game and tell me the secondary wasn’t the biggest problem?
The pass rush is definitely a big question mark but I think next year will be heavily focused on upgrading that in a major way.
I don’t think we’re going to the SB, but another championship game appearance wouldn’t surprise me. I do think that if this class hits for us it opens up so many possibilities the next 3 years.
Money will be available, lots of draft picks and young cheap talent spread across the roster.
Honestly, I think we’re pretty close together on the issues here.
The big difference: the Chiefs absolutely knew DL was a weakness. Veach said so. I think they were in on Von Miller (just guessing) and later Quinn. Neither worked out so they kept Clark at a reduced rate and signed Dunlap. Drafted Karlaftis, which they should have done no matter what, and the value at DT was poor in the draft. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Mathieu's play on the field was not as bad down the stretch as we make it out to be. There were not games where he was being exposed with any regularity. He was a king-sized distraction off the field, however.
Sorensen and Niemann were horrendous and have been thankfully upgraded.
But, yes. I think the DL is the most important positionMat on the team other than QB. And we're just not investing in it the way I'd like us to.
Bullshit Matthieu sucked big time no doubt about it [Reply]
I'm admittedly a weird sports fan, but I'm more excited for this season because it's more interesting to see something new and to watch the story unfold of how this new group of guys can gel. However, I don't necessarily think our odds of winning a Super Bowl are as high this year as they were last year. And that's OK. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
Agreed on the 2nd point.
The 1st point: the biggest problem was the DL. I think the DL is their biggest problem this year. I don't think they addressed it. They literally let Ingram/Reed walk and replaced them with Karlaftis/Dunlap.
Is that "addressing" it? Not sufficiently, I don't think.
You're worries about replacing Reed? What did that dude do that was so hard to reproduce?
You can be worried about the d line but Dunlap and karlaftis should be more than what Ingram brought. And Reed was nothing that a little improvement from Wharton and saunders won't cover. Was it enough? Who knows, but that sure as shit feels like an upgrade. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Direckshun:
ooooooooo I bet that won't stop you from having a bold judgment of the OP though
boom, baby!
Or is it a boom-baby? In my head I see a 50% chance of the AFCCG and, like, a 15% chance at the Super Bowl.
That's not modest, right? Objectively, that's a great perspective entering the season.
But compared to podcasts and Planeteers who seemingly have this team at 100% and 80%, respectively, I'm Eeyore.
I didn’t judge any takes. I was just putting that out there.
Bottom line is that this organization has earned the benefit of the doubt. And as long as Reid is here and Mahomes is in his prime, the floor will be pretty high. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
I didn’t judge any takes. I was just putting that out there.
Bottom line is that this organization has earned the benefit of the doubt. And as long as Reid is here and Mahomes is in his prime, the floor will be pretty high.
That’s actually straight up true about benefit of the doubt.
This team as currently constructed *should* have problems with the Bill, Chargers, and Bengals.
But all Mahomes does is make AFCCGs. So it’s hard to dock him any more than as a 50% shot. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tyecopeland:
You're worries about replacing Reed? What did that dude do that was so hard to reproduce?
You can be worried about the d line but Dunlap and karlaftis should be more than what Ingram brought. And Reed was nothing that a little improvement from Wharton and saunders won't cover. Was it enough? Who knows, but that sure as shit feels like an upgrade.
Unless you want to go down this rabbit hole of Jarran Reed, I’ll refrain other than to say that if Saunders can take off and hit what he’s capable of, a LOT of flaws on this DL disappear in a hurry. [Reply]
I don't listen to any podcasts, so I'll take your word for it on the positivity as I'm sure it mimics this board.
I'm going to say it does look like this Chiefs team could be fighting for a playoff spot simply because of the strength of the schedule, including a strong division, coupled with a young secondary and weak defensive line.
The other contenders for spots, in my opinion, are:
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans
Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders
The saving grace here is that the Colts and Titans, despite an otherwise weak division, play the AFC West and the Patriots and Dolphins play the AFC North and NFC North where they'll hit the Bills, Bengals, Packers, and Vikings.
We all know that the Chiefs' offense is talented, and it will be so long as there is a passable offensive line and Patrick Mahomes under center. This offense though has a chance to be special in my opinion. The depth of talent at WR is far superior to anything Pat has had to date. It may not have the ultimate cheat code in Tyreek anymore, but I'm not going to pretend that JuJu isn't capable of a 1300-yard season and every other spot is better. The Chiefs also have more speed at RB than they've ever had with Pacheco and McKinnon, which could lead to some big plays out of the backfield.
But it's not the offense to worry about. Most specifically, it's the defense and that secondary.
Rashad Fenton has never been a full-time starter and in his season with his most action (2021), he gave up a relatively atrocious 68.5% completions. His saving grace was it wasn't for a great many yards. He was actually far worse in yards given up in 2020 on a still less than stellar 62.1%. So, we'll have to hope Fenton takes the next step because more snaps mean even more yards.
With Sneed in the slot, the next 3 CBs after Fenton are all rookies and a Chris Lammons, who hasn't taken meaningful snaps since his first year which was in Miami (not to mention his looming case with Alvin Kamara in LV). Sure, McDuffie is a first-round pick but he's going to have his struggles and the rest of the rookies even more so. You hope McDuffie is as good as Paulson Adebo was in NO as a rookie, which was pretty good for a rookie. So far, Fenton has been a bit knicked up during the pre-season.
If Fenton and Sneed don't stay healthy for the full tilt, this secondary is in trouble no matter how good the safety group is which, by the way, looks to be rock solid. Veach would have been smart, in my opinion, to stock a couple of vet CBs on the PS. He doesn't even have one.
This isn't even talking about the defensive line, which has obvious concerns. The first issue lies with the vets. Dunlap was signed to take pressure off of Karlaftis as a rookie and help hedge some of the problems with performance with Frank Clark, but he already has a tweaked Achilles which usually leads to a tear at some point during the season. I'm worried there. Frank Clark dropped weight but now he looks too light. We'll see, but I'll never attach much hope to Frank Clark.
Then, you have the youth. Karlaftis is a rookie and, like McDuffie and the secondary, is going to learn on the fly how long and difficult an NFL season is and especially if/when they get to the playoff stretch. I like the strides Mike Danna has taken but he just doesn't look yet like a guy that will be an impact player. He looks like a solid 1st and 2nd down end but he doesn't look like he's going to get you a ton of pressure on the QB. He may have reached the point of at least Alex Okafor if that's saying much. We don't know what Mike Herring is, but he didn't look like much of a pass rusher either. I thought Josh Kaindoh should have been cut, so I guess we'll see where that ends up.
Overall, we're dealing with a lack of pass rushers. The Chiefs don't really have a rotational pinch hitter to get after the QB. My opinion is that Veach would be smart to swing a late rounder for a flash-in-the-pan that can at least get some pressure situationally. Maybe that guy isn't out there for the taking though.
We really could be looking at the 2018 Chiefs but the schedule is tougher. The Chiefs have to take some out-of-division games against good opponents and they can't give up the gimmes because they will, undoubtedly, lose a couple of division tilts.
Overall, I don't think playoffs are out of the realm of possibility or even likelihood, but I don't expect 13-14 wins and I don't expect this team to go far. I'm leaning towards 10-7 with 11-6 as a maybe. Anything more than that might be a bit overzealous. As for advancing through the gauntlet in the playoffs, that may be too tall a task for the defense. [Reply]
