Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501:
Gonna have to disagree with you there. Kelce is crucial to this offense. And we’d find out very quickly the limitations of our WRs if we lost him. He absorbs so much attention. Even more since we don’t have a tyreek to grab some of those doubles. And that’s part of my concern. Kelce is getting flat out abused because defenses don’t pay any attention to our WRs. We don’t want to acknowledge it but our guy is getting older and the level of effort and expected dominance from him is just not sustainable.
This isn’t a tyreek situation where we can just lose him. We will have a substantial drop off. He is critical for our success. And at some point we have to prepare sooner rather than later for him to not be this important. What HOF coach and HOF qb would succeed with a bunch of 2s and 3s at WR? Hell, not even good 2s and 3s. Mid tier at best.
That seems really dangerous to bet it all on a 34 year old Te next year to carry 3 times his weight.
I'm pretty sure I agree. But I'm not as sure as I was before I looked at Andy's history with TEs.
Chad Lewis was an undrafted nothing on his way out of football. Andy Reid showed up and overnight the guy goes to three straight pro bowls. He had a Pro Bowl TE at GB four straight years. He's kinda created great TE play anywhere he's been.
Do I think we'd suffer without Kelce. Yeah - and probably pretty biggly. But I think there's a non-zero chance that Reid could go out there and pull a rabbit out of his hat with Gray or Fortson and suddenly we'd get, I dunno, top 6-8 TE play out of one of those guys instead of #1 with a bullet like we get out of Kelce.
Is that ideal? No, of course not. But we can work with that... [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I'm pretty sure I agree. But I'm not as sure as I was before I looked at Andy's history with TEs.
Chad Lewis was an undrafted nothing on his way out of football. Andy Reid showed up and overnight the guy goes to three straight pro bowls. He had a Pro Bowl TE at GB four straight years. He's kinda created great TE play anywhere he's been.
Do I think we'd suffer without Kelce. Yeah - and probably pretty biggly. But I think there's a non-zero chance that Reid could go out there and pull a rabbit out of his hat with Gray or Fortson and suddenly we'd get, I dunno, top 6-8 TE play out of one of those guys instead of #1 with a bullet like we get out of Kelce.
Is that ideal? No, of course not. But we can work with that...
But that’s why we should hedge our bets. Even a great TE can’t carry an offense on his back like kelce. A true WR1 and a solid to great TE can get us through the hump.
More importantly we can extend kelces career by making him do less in the coming years. Let’s start first with finding ways for him not to not mugged and doubled/tripled on every play the extent that he does. In either event we have to plan sooner vs later to pick up some or maybe a lot of the giant weight we put on kelces shoilder every week. And I don’t think we have nearly the horses right now to do it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501:
But that’s why we should hedge our bets. Even a great TE can’t carry an offense on his back like kelce. A true WR1 and a solid to great TE can get us through the hump.
More importantly we can extend kelces career by making him do less in the coming years. Let’s start first with finding ways for him not to not mugged and doubled/tripled on every play the extent that he does. In either event we have to plan sooner vs later to pick up some or maybe a lot of the giant weight we put on kelces shoilder every week. And I don’t think we have nearly the horses right now to do it.
It's the first season after they just traded Tyreek. At the last minute no less. It's not as if they traded him at the beginning of FA, then went thru it and decided "nah, we're good".
And at some point, yeah, I'm gonna need Mahomes to turn some of those #3's into #2's and a #2 into a #1 type of guy.
Again, you wanna take up that much cap space? Sure, I'm glad to pay it, you are clearly worth it. But you need to give me something back. Which he clearly does, this year as an example.
It comes down to what and where you place importance positionally. They have to get the LT spot and the DE spot handled at some point and that's gonna cost some draft picks and money, if not both.
I've seen them put the best offense in football on the field with this group of WR's. If they have to cobble something together again, well, I'd trust Andy and Pat to make it work this well again vs the alternative. [Reply]
I still think JuJu seems like the type to take a team friendly deal if he truly loves it here. Remember, he turned down more money from us the first time around to stay in Pittsburgh. He seems like a loyal guy.
He fits in perfectly for his role here and he doesn't really have the type of skillset that teams generally overpay for. I think he just might stick around. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Wisconsin_Chief:
Yikes, that's impressive.
I still think JuJu seems like the type to take a team friendly deal if he truly loves it here. Remember, he turned down more money from us the first time around to stay in Pittsburgh. He seems like a loyal guy.
He fits in perfectly for his role here and he doesn't really have the type of skillset that teams generally overpay for. I think he just might stick around.
I was a little shocked to see that stat. Both Kelce and JJSS way the hell up there. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Wisconsin_Chief:
Yikes, that's impressive.
I still think JuJu seems like the type to take a team friendly deal if he truly loves it here. Remember, he turned down more money from us the first time around to stay in Pittsburgh. He seems like a loyal guy.
He fits in perfectly for his role here and he doesn't really have the type of skillset that teams generally overpay for. I think he just might stick around.
Yes, on it's face that's impressive.
But there have been 41 guys with more than 85 targets this year. JJSS is 38th in depth of target at 7 yards downfield.
More amazing than that isn't his rank, it's the gap. 32nd in the league (Christian Kirk) isn't .2 yards ahead of him - he's 2.5 yards ahead of him at 9.5 yards downfield.
And it gets even worse in man coverage where he's at 6.8 yards/target. The Chiefs don't even attempt to get him open downfield (or mid-field) against man coverage. He's simply not going to succeed.
So you have a guy running quick hitters vs. man and occasionally attacking the seams vs. zone. Essentially getting a slew of high school football type of opportunities.
Yeah - he has a hell of a catch rate - because he's getting simple tosses in short. He's not being used like a Z receiver; he's being used like a TE.
The degree of difficulty for JJSS is essentially nil and the deeper you go, the more replaceable he appears to be. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Shit man, Chris Olave is playing INCREDIBLY well this year.
A 60% success rate while leading the league among players with 85 or more targets at 15 yards downfield.
The guy isn't getting much YAC at all, but he's absolutely killing it on downfield receiving.
Yeah, I really would have liked him in KC. I'm sad he's gonna wither in NO.
But that's another prime example of why I'm not paying JJSS or going and paying another teams #2 that they let walk (cause teams don't let their #1 go, they trade or pay them). These WR's coming into the league every year are just ready to go. Draft one early, insert him and let Pat feast. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yes, on it's face that's impressive.
But there have been 41 guys with more than 85 targets this year. JJSS is 38th in depth of target at 7 yards downfield.
More amazing than that isn't his rank, it's the gap. 32nd in the league (Christian Kirk) isn't .2 yards ahead of him - he's 2.5 yards ahead of him at 9.5 yards downfield.
And it gets even worse in man coverage where he's at 6.8 yards/target. The Chiefs don't even attempt to get him open downfield (or mid-field) against man coverage. He's simply not going to succeed.
So you have a guy running quick hitters vs. man and occasionally attacking the seams vs. zone. Essentially getting a slew of high school football type of opportunities.
Yeah - he has a hell of a catch rate - because he's getting simple tosses in short. He's not being used like a Z receiver; he's being used like a TE.
The degree of difficulty for JJSS is essentially nil and the deeper you go, the more replaceable he appears to be.
He's doing the exact things every said Moore was drafted to do. Hence, let him do those next year at a 2nd round WR cost. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
He's doing the exact things every said Moore was drafted to do. Hence, let him do those next year at a 2nd round WR cost.
Exactly.
The more you look into this, the more obvious the answer becomes. Moore isn't a replacement for Hardman or MVS; it's just not his game. He's a natural replacement for JJSS, though. And yes, if he's out there taking 100 targets within 10 yards of the LOS, with his hands I have no reason to believe he couldn't manage a high success rate.
Those that are expecting a breakout from Moore next year NEED JuJu to move on to get it. That's his role. [Reply]
The more you look into this, the more obvious the answer becomes. Moore isn't a replacement for Hardman or MVS; it's just not his game. He's a natural replacement for JJSS, though. And yes, if he's out there taking 100 targets within 10 yards of the LOS, with his hands I have no reason to believe he couldn't manage a high success rate.
Those that are expecting a breakout from Moore next year NEED JuJu to move on to get it. That's his role.
Yeah, I never understood the thought process of him being here to replace Hardman. Their skill sets are basically opposite ends of the spectrum.
I think Moore can actually be a much better player and produce more in the JJSS role than we've gotten this year. Let him do it. [Reply]
I really think Amari Cooper would be really nice option if the Browns would want to move him. Doubt they'd want to, but who knows.
He's 28, really good route runner, would really pair well here. They gave up a 6th to get him. See if they'd take a 4th that would become a 3rd. [Reply]