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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
BigRedChief 09:01 PM 03-26-2020

Reported US coronavirus cases:

3/1 89
3/2 105
3/3 125
3/4 159
3/5 227
3/6 331
3/7 444
3/8 564
3/9 728
3/10 1000
3/11 1267
3/12 1645
3/13 2204
3/14 2826
3/15 3505
3/16 4466
3/17 6135
3/18 8760
3/19 13229
3/20 18763
3/21 25740
3/22 34276
3/23 42663
3/24 52976
3/25 65273
Now 82135

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 27, 2020

[Reply]
SupDock 09:02 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by eDave:
boob
Tons o' snot
[Reply]
carlos3652 09:03 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
Death rate is going down, at least for today



Source:

Shows 1,297 so far via https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100 more than the numbers posted by that dude. It was probably accurate as of that tweet... but the day isnt over...
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 09:03 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Another figure to look at (if the sites I am looking at are at all accurate).... we are currently at ~80k active known cases with ~2k serious/critical. That gives us 2.5% as the absolute max for serious/critical cases. It is FAR more likely that we are looking at ~2k serious/critical cases and ~500k-800k active cases since so many go untested/unreported/undetected. In which case the number drops to .4-.25% of all cases end up serious or critical. (I think these numbers are actually WAY WAY too high because I think we have far more infected or infected and recovered than we are imagining)

If the number is .4% and we infected almost everyone, we would have something in the range of 1 million people hospitalized in the US for Covid-19. And there are experts who think we will see 1/4 of those people die? Or are these experts claiming that the 80k detected cases is a somewhat accurate figure reflective of how many total US infections there have been since January or December? That would be absolutely ridiculous and I can't imagine anyone being clueless enough to believe that.
I continue to believe this line of thinking. There are only a few examples where everyone was tracked and the levels of asymptomatic infection were anywhere from 50% of all infected to 80% of all infected.

Short-term it continues to be an issue of not breaking the health care system but the actual death rate is much much lower. It may only be slight magnitude higher than a bad flu season if it weren’t all hitting within such a compressed period of time.
[Reply]
cdcox 09:08 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Have you seen the most recent Oxford model? They changed the assumption regarding the rate of severity and showed a model that fit the reality in the UK but was based on it having almost peaked at this point.

That is something I am having a problem reconciling when experts make projections based on us being in the very early phases of this. That assumption seems off to me. We know it spreads ridiculously fast. We know that it was in the wild in the US for AT LEAST 2 months (more likely 3) with little to no mitigation. Not just wishful thinking here, but the revised Oxford model simply makes more sense to me.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnh...0(13).pdf?dl=0

Another issue is with testing. Since we aren't testing for antibodies, we have no clue what the negatives mean. Are those people susceptible to the virus or people who are now immune?
So models that are based on an earlier time of introduction of the virus to the population combined with a lower fraction of the population that is susceptible to the worst outcomes are able to fit the data and indicate a much faster accumulation of herd immunity. This would be a great outcome. I am skeptical because the models were only allowed to run for the first 15 days after the first death and already by that time the model was showing 50% herd immunity. The reason given for only running the model 15 days was to avoid the influence of social distancing. However, they could run the model beyond the 15 days as a business as usual. That simulation should serve as a "business as usual" upper bound for deaths. If actual deaths, even with social distancing practices invoked, exceeded the "business as usual" upper bound, it would undermine the model.

Still interesting, and somewhat hopeful perspective.
[Reply]
Chief Roundup 09:12 PM 03-26-2020
Man I have the nightly news on, CBS, and they had several nurses and doctors on from NY and they are saying that they are only giving care to those they think can survive. They are saying that they are running out of PPE. It was horrible.
[Reply]
oaklandhater 09:13 PM 03-26-2020

The problem with the US is we have 50 states with all different rules reacting at different times. A uniform set of rules would help. Why hasn’t the US grounded domestic flights yet?

— Jeff Levy (@Jeffrey_Levy) March 27, 2020


We really need a national shutdown like yesterday all the states having their own rules isn't helping any one in the long term.
[Reply]
cdcox 09:18 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Another figure to look at (if the sites I am looking at are at all accurate).... we are currently at ~80k active known cases with ~2k serious/critical. That gives us 2.5% as the absolute max for serious/critical cases. It is FAR more likely that we are looking at ~2k serious/critical cases and ~500k-800k active cases since so many go untested/unreported/undetected. In which case the number drops to .4-.25% of all cases end up serious or critical. (I think these numbers are actually WAY WAY too high because I think we have far more infected or infected and recovered than we are imagining)

If the number is .4% and we infected almost everyone, we would have something in the range of 1 million people hospitalized in the US for Covid-19. And there are experts who think we will see 1/4 of those people die? Or are these experts claiming that the 80k detected cases is a somewhat accurate figure reflective of how many total US infections there have been since January or December? That would be absolutely ridiculous and I can't imagine anyone being clueless enough to believe that.
The 500 to 800K cases are heavily weighted to early-stage cases because of the exponential growth of this thing. There is a time lag -- around 7 days -- between an early infection and a serious case. I think your 2.5% serious cases is likely a significant under estimate.

To determine the serious case fraction it would be better to look at a place where they are doing more testing and the epidemic was more mature -- like South Korea.
[Reply]
loochy 09:18 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Man I have the nightly news on, CBS, and they had several nurses and doctors on from NY and they are saying that they are only giving care to those they think can survive. They are saying that they are running out of PPE. It was horrible.
Of course it was horrible. What did you expect to see on the news?
[Reply]
Bugeater 09:22 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
Of course it was horrible. What did you expect to see on the news?
Some bunny rabbits would be nice once in a while
[Reply]
Chief Roundup 09:23 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
Of course it was horrible. What did you expect to see on the news?
What was horrible is what the Doctors and nurses were saying. Not what the journalists were saying.
Refrigerated trailers to store the dead bodies. Nurses with confirmed Covid-19 being forced to work. Using trash bags as PPE.
[Reply]
cdcox 09:25 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by Bugeater:
Some bunny rabbits would be nice once in a while

[Reply]
ChiefZilla 09:28 PM 03-26-2020
Trump says everyone will be back to working very soon!
[Reply]
BigRedChief 09:29 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by Chief Roundup:
Man I have the nightly news on, CBS, and they had several nurses and doctors on from NY and they are saying that they are only giving care to those they think can survive. They are saying that they are running out of PPE. It was horrible.
I said it was horrible too this am. Shouldn’t be happening in America. Got 2 pages of people telling me I’m Over reacting. Chill out.

It’s the words of the healthcare workers on the front line of fighting this pandemic. Not my opinion or yours.
[Reply]
LiveSteam 09:30 PM 03-26-2020
Where's Snake Plissken when you need him?
[Reply]
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