I have had a stance from the outset that the loss of Tyreek Hill was addition by subtraction. It is my personal opinion, based on things I've seen and heard, that Mahomes was affected in his performances by always looking for Hill first. Whether that be because Hill was in his ear bitching for the ball, or Mahomes just wanting that kill shot over death by papercut, and passing up open guys.
In a small sample of Mahomes in pre season, we saw him go 6/7 for 70 and a td, all completions to different receivers, and only MVS was targeted twice. This is without Juju even getting a catch.
I think this years offense will be the most dangerous. There isn't a blueprint anymore. You can't just say play shell, double Hill and force Mahomes to throw to trash like D-ROP.
Mahomes won't have as strong of a need/want to hold out for a huge play when a wide open 15 is right there with Hill gone. His progressions will improve, and if an Andy Reid offense is running on all cylinders, with quality talent at every receiving spot, I just don't see how that's going to do less numbers than Hill, Kelce and trash behind them.
We will still be top 3 in scoring, and likely fielding a much better defensive unit. We will win the west, home playoff game, and play for a 5th straight AFC title. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
5 years into the Patrick Mahomes era and we still have folks saying the running game will make the difference on this team...
Aight.
Teams aren't going to adjust away from Patrick Mahomes to stop Isiah Pacheco. It's just not happening.
It’s absolutely the case. Turn a one dimensional team into a 1.5 dimensional team. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
None of the above.
They'll be good in a different way. I don't think I see the "We're going back to the explosive offense of 2018!!" thing happening. But I don't see teams being able to dictate terms given the added depth.
But I'm also someone that thinks Pringle was better than people will acknowledge so I'm not completely on board with the 'it was Kelce, Hill and Rags!' thing.
We replaced Hill, Pringle and D-Rob with JuJu, MVS and Moore. I don't think the latter is a better trio unless Moore really does explode into a 900+ yard guy. I think they all have a specialty, which is different than what we've had in the past. But I also don't think any of them are likely standout weapons.
I just think we'll be different but still very good.
The offense from 2018 can't be replicated and not because of talent. Back then, defenses had naïve approaches on how to defend Mahomes. Opponents hadn't yet learned his tendencies. [Reply]
So I guess the question becomes, when you NEED a play, have we piled enough depth there to be confident that when the time calls for it, one of those 3 will get the job done?
Yeah, the downs like Wasp where everyone in the world knows Mahomes will look for Tyreek first, or needing 3 points in 13 seconds, but it doesn’t matter if everyone knows you're looking Tyreek and Kelce, become they're going to beat you anyway.
The Chiefs rushed for 15+ yards/game more than the past couple SB winners, and the last time they were under 100/game, they won the SB... it's no longer the 90s, you don't run a million times to set up that one play action bomb. [Reply]
The addition by subtraction comment is absolutely wild to me, we could have paid Tyreek and still drafted Skyy Moore. With Kelce and Hill taking a lot of attention from defenses, it is a fair argument that we didn't have enough talent behind them. That isn't on Tyreek though, that's on Veach for not finding a suitable replacement for Watkins. Remember the Chiefs were recruiting Juju last year in the offseason, I think the team was aware of its shortcomings at receiver but weren't able to properly address the need.
The Tyreek Hill debate to me is more about salary allocation and overall team strength than it is about spreading out the offense. Let's not get it twisted though, we are going to miss having one of the most explosive players in NFL history. As others have mentioned, when you need Wasp, or Tyreek turning a 15 dig route into a 70 yard TD against the Bills- you're probably not getting those splash plays as often. The offense has to become more consistent this season. [Reply]
Not having all those draft picks, changes everything. Mahomes had to save Tyreek from himself several times. Tua doesn't carry the swagger, that will be interesting to see play out [Reply]
If Mahomes stays consistent we’ll have a top flight offense
I’d rather have the receiving corps from last year, but this offense has solid skill players and Mahomes/Reid should be able to make it work
Play to our strengths: Offensive line, QB with great accuracy over the middle, elite TE, creative playcalling. Offense will probably have some long drives, but hopefully more efficient than last year. Fewer turnovers. Don’t be afraid to just be straight physical. We have the line for it. Use the FB and use play action if the run game is working. I know we don’t do much play-action from under center but I think it’d work well [Reply]
Meh. It is what mahomes wants to do with it. He liked getting chunks of yards per his own words. He looked for Kelce and hill first..then back to them. Or would force it. Mainly because he didn't trust the other guys.
The year he threw 50 tds he had a rb catching them. He hasn't had that trust in awhile. Teams adapted and we took forever to. Also our defense regressed. If he can get some trust and hit dump offs and short routes to keep drives going this team can't be stopped. Only teams that can give us a fit are dlines that get pressure without blitzing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Shoes:
The addition by subtraction comment is absolutely wild to me, we could have paid Tyreek and still drafted Skyy Moore. With Kelce and Hill taking a lot of attention from defenses, .
Mahomes will be a better quarterback with Hill gone. A more decisive Mahomes that simply runs the offense and hits the open guy without feeling like he's letting his friend down, who set a franchise record with 111 catches and still feels like he needs the ball more is going to be a massive addition.
Look at the overhaul on defense. Doesn't happen if Hill stays.
Better quarterback play and decision making + a revamped younger, faster, better defense= addition by subtracting Hill.
We will be a better football team without Tyreek Hill. The assests gained with his departure and the freedom for Mahomes to play without Hill in his ear pressure free is a more than fair trade.
No, we won't see as many 70 yard tds, and likely will never see a 13 seconds scenario again, but here's the thing, we likely will not need those things to happen to win games.
We couldn't stop a JV squad on defense last year. And with a qb not going through the reads, and instead force feeding a diva, thats a recipe for disaster. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Wallcrawler:
Mahomes will be a better quarterback with Hill gone. A more decisive Mahomes that simply runs the offense and hits the open guy without feeling like he's letting his friend down, who set a franchise record with 111 catches and still feels like he needs the ball more is going to be a massive addition.
Look at the overhaul on defense. Doesn't happen if Hill stays.
Better quarterback play and decision making + a revamped younger, faster, better defense= addition by subtracting Hill.
We will be a better football team without Tyreek Hill. The assests gained with his departure and the freedom for Mahomes to play without Hill in his ear pressure free is a more than fair trade.
No, we won't see as many 70 yard tds, and likely will never see a 13 seconds scenario again, but here's the thing, we likely will not need those things to happen to win games.
We couldn't stop a JV squad on defense last year. And with a qb not going through the reads, and instead force feeding a diva, thats a recipe for disaster.
Addition by subtraction is not the phrase you're looking for. We are reallocating our spending to improve other areas of the field which I mentioned in my first post. Addition by subtraction would be what the Raiders did when they booted Antonio Brown in training camp last season.
Everything else in your post is essentially what I said, couldn't afford to give the $$$ to Tyreek and we decided that we can improve the team by allocating that money to other players and the draft picks would go a long way.
I think where we disagree is the perception that Hill was a player that was demanding the ball whether he was open or not, or that just because Tyreek was on the field that Mahomes automatically deferred to Hill. Tyreek's catch rate in 2021 was just a hair under 70% which is exceptional, his catch rate was a hair better than Kelce actually. I don't share the opinion that Mahomes will perform better with Hill off the field, or his decision making is going to be perfect since he doesn't have an alpha #1 WR. My opinion is that the offense was tailored around Kelce and Hill because they were the best opportunity to make plays, and that the other receiving options couldn't be trusted to get consistently open.
If you want to argue that the Chiefs are a better team because the draft picks and extra salary to sign players made the team an overall better team, you won't get an argument out of me but that isn't what addition by subtraction is. [Reply]
I think where we disagree is the perception that Hill was a player that was demanding the ball whether he was open or not, or that just because Tyreek was on the field that Mahomes automatically deferred to Hill.
You have to consider Tyreek running off at the mouth with his agent on demanding the ball.
Rosenhaus: There were definitely times last season where we felt that Tyreek was not being used to his full potential.
Hill: Can I see the pill please? Just give me the ball please.
Keep in mind this is on a season where he made Chiefs history with 111 receptions, passing Tony Gonzalez' 102.
Not used enough? Can I get the ball please? He even went off about not getting the ball in one on one match ups. Nobody played Hill one on one after at Tampa in the regular season of our second sb run. He's fucking delusional.
Fuck outta here Hill. Dude is friends with Pat, I guarantee you he was in his ear to get him the ball.
Look no further than that bullshit at the end of the half of AFC title game. Throwing to Hill in the backfield with no timeouts?
Heaving it to Hill for the trademarked Cheetah tip drill int in overtime?
We may never agree on this, until the results of this season are seen. I fully believe Mahomes will be a better qb without Hill. [Reply]
I think you will see a similar situation with Mahomes as what happened with Matt Stafford when Megatron retired.
Stafford isn't anywhere near Mahomes in ability, and this happened with him.
Looking at the raw data, the Lions' signal-caller has improved in just about every major category.
With Johnson from 2009-2015, Stafford started 93 games, threw for 25,976 yards, 163 touchdowns and 98 interceptions -- good for a passer rating of 85.8.
Without Johnson, from 2016-19, Stafford started 56 games, threw for 15,049 yards, 93 touchdowns and 36 interceptions -- good for a passer rating of 95.9.
Once you take away that "crutch" player that your qb is obsessed with and he's forced to run the offense, you become much harder to defend.
Kelce is still the defacto #1 target, but he's not a guy that's gonna pout on a day he only catches 2 balls and wins the game. [Reply]