For all things Royals in 2022. #3 minor league system according to Baseball America. The Bobby Witt era should begin this year. Will Salvy still be the homerun king? How does the glut of infield players work out? Will the young pitchers take the next step?
Free Agents/Trades Acquisitions
Zack Greinke, P
Amir Garrett, P
Taylor Clarke, P
Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America
1. Bobby Witt, SS
2. Asa Lacy, P
3. MJ Melendez, C
4. Nick Pratto, 1B
5. Jackson Kowar, P
6. Kyle Isabel, OF
7. Frank Mozzicato, P
8. Ben Kudrna, P
9. Jonathan Bowlan, P
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
Duncan's Top Royals Prospects
Spoiler!
1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS. MLB.
This status lasts about another 4 weeks, but let’s take a moment to appreciate having the top guy in the minor league prospects lists for at least a little while longer. Witt has prodigious ability and the question is really just IF he can meet it. They have not had a prospect like this in my lifetime, and really probably ever. Combine insane raw physical skills (right there with Adalberto Mondesi and Willie Wilson in the ranks right behind Bo Jackson) with unbelievable work ethic, a humble-but-confident nature, and already having shown he can struggle and overcome to achieve big success, and you have the tools for a show-stopping centerpiece. Oh, and throw in the former-player’s kid aspect on it on top of things, and there is every reason to believe he’s going to succeed and succeed big.
2. M.J. Melendez, C, AAA Omaha.
I was early on putting him in this slot last year, and I don’t regret it. The power, the ability to be a good defender behind the dish as well as having the athletic ability to play 3B or LF, too, and you have a really valuable overall piece and FANTASTIC understudy for Salvador Perez.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP. AA Northwest Arkansas
Whoa, let’s get crazy again. Lacy has outstanding stuff. Top of the system. He got hurt and lost his command during COVID times, but appears to be back on track so far this spring. If his command sticks, this is a guy who can move quickly. And his ceiling is really second to nobody in the minor league pitching ranks.
4. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B. AA Northwest Arkansas
Vinnie starts the season back at AA due to the guy who follows him on the list here. He just hits, folks. I love his combination of contact, loud contact, plate discipline, and lack of strikeouts. The Billy Butler comparisons are annoying (in that I will NEVER refer to this man as Italian Breakfast except in the instance that just occurred), but the Billy Butler comparisons are also fairly apt… if you made Butler a lefthanded hitter, AND improved his body/athleticism from a 20 to a 40, AND if you added that little extra touch of power we all wished Butler could consistently find.
5. Nick Pratto, 1B, AAA Omaha.
Hey, let’s stay at 1B. Pratto has flashy power and I love his batting eye AND his hand-eye coordination. The hair he’s been rocking this spring is also pretty sweet. I slot him just behind Pasquantino simply because I think his bat profile is more volatile. The glove and arm are sweet/plus for 1B, though.
6. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AAA Omaha
Bowlan is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is assuming that recovering is successful. If it his, you’re talking about a big, consistent SP who throws hard enough and has enough of a repertoire to really make things happen. If the recovery goes well, he may be shuttling to the majors in July to reinforce the rotation.
7. Nick Loftin, CF, AA Omaha.
Loftin is a guy who has really grown on me. I saw him as a quasi super-utility guy when the Royals drafted him, The full-time shift to CF (which means they think he has the speed and the overall defensive ability to handle CF in Kansas City) adds a lot of value here. The ultimate positive offensive upside is similar to peak Whit Merrifield, maybe with a touch more early power.
8. Michael Massey, 2B, AA Northwest Arkansas.
Massey was an absolute revelation last year, hitting for power and average and keeping his K rate down while playing a really strong 2B. He has a very sweet, short lefthanded stroke. This is another aggressive rating, but Massey has proven himself through a tough minor league assignment already, and the arrow is pointed up.
9. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Rookie Ball
Kudrna is a big, physical specimen with a lot of upside and potential. The fastball and slider are already nearly MLB-level in terms of velocity and movement (command needs work). Kudrna is a guy who, with luck, and health, and good development, could ascend to the top of a rotation.
10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, Rookie Ball.
Mozzicato has a curveball that suggests he has a feel for spin. If you want to dream, you hope that the next 2-3 years turn the 175 he weighed when drafted into a rock-solid 220/225 and carries with it an increase in fastball velocity from 90-91, sitting 87-88, to 96-97, sitting 93-94. You pair his ability to spin the ball (which also suggests he should be able to easily master a sweeper slider) with that type of fastball velo and a changeup he already has a feel for, and it’s an exciting profile.
He has a little more to go in terms of growing into that projectability than Kudrna, which is why he slots right behind him.
11. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Marsh missed a lot of 2021 to injury, but the hard-throwing righthander is another guy who could move quickly once the minor league season starts. He’s undeniably got the stuff of a quality major-league pitcher. The question is if he can master enough command to cash it in. This guy is a great example of TINSTAAPP.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AAA Omaha
Zerpa might quickly outperform this slot. His stuff ticked up in 21 and he ended the season making a start in the majors. He’s nice depth to have, and honestly, I’m a big fan of just throwing numbers at pitching. Zerpa definitely helps create the depth you need to generate a top-notch and reliable home-grown rotation.
13. Maikel Garcia, SS, AA Northwest Arkansas
Garcia is a really intriguing hitter, a righthanded hitter who has a nice combination of contact skills and control of the strike zone (this cousin of Alcides Escobar is less savvy with the glove and more savvy at the plate). The Royals protected him for a reason (he’s on the 40-man).
14. Carter Jensen, C, A ??
Jensen is a local product whose bat will probably push him off C (as well as the Royals depth at that spot throughout the organization). This is a future 1B profile, and a nice one. He makes a lot of loud contact and shows an ability to lift the ball. Should be fun to watch this year.
15. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A+ Quad Rivers
Hernandez missed a good part of 2021 but still has that butterfly changeup and a classic pitcher’s profile. He’ll need to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary to make it in the bigs, but if not, the fastball velocity and changeup should make him a quality high-leverage reliver.
16. Dylan Coleman, RHP, AAA Omaha
Speaking of relievers, Coleman is a hard-throwing righthander who probably spends most of 22 in the Royals’ pen. ½ of the compensation for the Rosenthal trade a few years back, Coleman has a big fastball and nasty breaking ball.
17. Will Klein, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Speaking of relivers, everything I just said about Coleman? Yeah, you can say it about Klein, too. Klein regularly toyed with hitters at high A last year, striking out 121 hitters in just 70 1/3 innings pitched. For those counting at home, that’s a 15.5 K/9 rate. Yep. That’ll play.
18. Anthony Veneziano, LHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Here’s another big, power arm. Veneziano hasn’t been relegated to bullpen only yet, though. His fastball bumped into the high 90s last year on a starter’s workload. He’s still looking for a changeup, but if he doesn’t find it, you’re looking at a really promising future bullpen fireballer.
19. Erick Pena, OF, A ?
Pena did… not have a strong 2021 full season debut. His struggles look a lot like those of Pratto and Melendez in 2019. Pena has the same type of raw toolkit to work from as those two, with great hands and natural power. He needs to fix a hitch in his swing and calm it down, but so did Melendez. Of this second ten grouping, Pena has the highest upside and could jump right into the top 5 of the org ranks.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A+
Collins is an international signing out of Europe. I like the hitting package here – good eye and contact skills. He needs to make more loud contact, but if he can, really a nice guy.
Overall takeaways:
This is a system with a lot of depth. We could go another 10-12 deep and still be talking about guys with a good shot to make the majors. The changes to the organization’s approach are bearing fruit, as even less-heralded draftees are stepping forward.
The combination of upside (Witt, Melendez, Lacy), depth, and guys you can dream on is fun. It may not produce quite as much as the 2011 group did, but it does offer a more sustainable system, less reliant on a few big-ticket guys.
Originally Posted by Al Czervik:
If this occurs, I will continue to boycott the K. I havent been since 2019.
Right when they hired shitforbrains Matheny.
I refuse to reward the organization for garbage Leadership and Management.
They are hitting and catching baseballs. It's not rocket science. Good players should be good players regardless. It isn't like in the NFL where you many times just need the right situation and system. Its simple. The pitcher throws you the ball and u either swing at it or dont - hit it or dont.
Of course development and leadership and locker room chemistry matter- but they probably matter the least out of any team sport I can think of. [Reply]
Originally Posted by louie aguiar:
I heard Vern on 610 the other day saying that not only does he expect Dayton, JJ, Matheny and Eldred back, he expects that they will all receive extensions this offseason because they've been playing a little better lately (before they laid an egg in Minnesota) and Matheny and Eldred only have one year left on their contracts after this year. I hope he's wrong. This organization desperately needs new direction.
I fervently hope he is wrong, and as a result will be rooting for the current swoon to continue. Another 10+ game losing streak would be helpful.
Originally Posted by SithCeNtZ:
At this point the cries of "well we have a bunch of rookies so that explains it" is starting to sound like when our system was barren in the 2016-2019 years and everyone kept pointing to the zobrist cueto deals. It's true to some extent but this isn't nearly the crutch people are making it out to be. Once a guy hits the majors he doesn't automatically drop off a prospect list. Massey, Pratto, and Eaton are all on the prospect list. They just aren't all that well thought of. Pratto took a step back this year in prospect status even discarding his pretty bad MLB debut so far. Massey and Eaton aren't big prospects. Sure, losing the arguably #1 prospect in baseball hurts, but the fact of the matter is there was never a ton behind him. I know the Royals are going to spin it like that: "hey look at all the rookies! That's why it's a bad ranking" but it's really hiding the dumpster fire of pitching prospects that I'm not sure if anyone would qualify if they extended lists to 250 prospects. It's also hiding their continued instance to draft defense and speed over power in every pick other than our usual top 10 first rounder. The Nick Loftin Christian Colon type picks might yield some decent guys on occasion but none of them will ever be stars. When you do that for 98% of your picks with a rare exception like Wallace this year, you are limiting your prospect upside before it even begins. The front office can't be let off the hook for that.
Yeah, you can chalk some of it up to graduations. But they also have again made big investments in pitching prospects and are not seeing dramatic initial results from those.
The Royals' focus on defense, speed, athleticism, and personal character* puts them in specific boxes on prospects.
*some will quibble with this, but it is clearly a factor in the draft process. Maybe not THE factor, but I'm pretty sure a player who shares my beliefs re: religion who told the Royals' front office about them would be taken off their draft board.
Originally Posted by tk13:
Dayton pretty clearly tries to build these things in waves, so it's not surprising the farm system would take a hit. Even this year, our 1st round pick is definitely a good hitter but it's also pretty clear he was drafted to try and match the current wave of players, compared to maybe drafting a younger guy who might end up being a more dynamic player. You'd like to see more depth though just to be safe. Just look at what Cleveland is doing, again.
In Cleveland, they’re in first place with a $65 million payroll, the youngest roster in the majors and, just for fun. nine top-100 prospects still in their system. It ain’t all about the money. You need baseball people who want to win AND know how to do it. https://t.co/cvOFIlLwZX
The way the Indians do things is impressive, specifically their pitcher development. I don't think their hitting development is anything special (and may even be a little below average), but if I'm Sherman and I'm re-shuffling in the front office, I'm looking to poach someone from that system and put them in charge over here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by louie aguiar:
I heard Vern on 610 the other day saying that not only does he expect Dayton, JJ, Matheny and Eldred back, he expects that they will all receive extensions this offseason because they've been playing a little better lately (before they laid an egg in Minnesota) and Matheny and Eldred only have one year left on their contracts after this year. I hope he's wrong. This organization desperately needs new direction.
Then the Royals losing is good right now.
No way those guys hang around or I’m taking off until they are.
Also the Indians (refuse to call them their new gay name) onboarded two prospects ranked in the 50-100 range Kwan and Gimenez, and they’re both playing great in their lineup. So I’d say they can produce some hitting too. And onboard it better than we can [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Also the Indians (refuse to call them their new gay name) onboarded two prospects ranked in the 50-100 range Kwan and Gimenez, and they’re both playing great in their lineup. So I’d say they can produce some hitting too. And onboard it better than we can
I don't recall Kwan ever being ranked in that range.
Gimenez was a nice trade return for them on Lindor. He was pretty awful for Cleveland last year but has really turned it around in 22. He hasn't spent much time in the Guardians' minor league system.
George Valera is coming and looks like a really good player, but other than that they haven't produced much in the way of position players since Lindor and Ramirez graduated in the mid-2010s. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Also the Indians (refuse to call them their new gay name) onboarded two prospects ranked in the 50-100 range Kwan and Gimenez, and they’re both playing great in their lineup. So I’d say they can produce some hitting too. And onboard it better than we can
For those that continue to say that the Manager\org have little impact on the outcome, that it's on the players and players alone. We cannot attribute other organizational successes but then troll the members of the Royals fandom for wanting heads to roll because of repeated failures. Just some perspective. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Also the Indians (refuse to call them their new gay name) onboarded two prospects ranked in the 50-100 range Kwan and Gimenez, and they’re both playing great in their lineup. So I’d say they can produce some hitting too. And onboard it better than we can
I take exception to the notion that the Indians developed Kwan. He was the star centerfielder for Oregon State before the Indians ever even had contact with him. He was plenty developed by the legendary Pat Casey; if you want to say any org developed him, it was the Beavs.
Similarly, the Orioles did not develop Kwan's OSU teammate Adley Rutschman.
If these guys were raw toolsy high school draft picks, sure, their ML orgs developed them. Highly advanced college stars from a powerhouse program and a legendary coach? I assign no bonus points for development in those cases. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Kwan 61 Gimenez 93 in FG offseason rank. Also if Kwan was some star, odd he was a 5th rounder
Kwan is listed at 5'9 170 pounds, known to not be a HR hitter nor will he become one, and his speed, while good, isn't a huge asset either (28.4 ft/sec sprint speed ranks him 17th amongst LFers this MLB season). So that's how you drop to the 5th round. However, his elite, otherwordly plate discipline was very much a thing in his Beaver career. The Indians didn't turn him into that patient hitter that won't chase a ball no matter what. The Beavers did.
Here is an excerpt about Kwan from a very recent fangraphs article
Originally Posted by :
What works in Kwan’s favor is that his eye at the plate isn’t just good — it’s absolutely stellar, possibly one of the best in the league. You might not have been convinced of that early on in the season, but it’s apparent now. The man refuses to swing at a pitch outside the zone. That helps him convert favorable counts into walks at a frequency that surpasses the average hitter at every step of the way
About Kwan:
Kwan played three seasons for Oregon State, from 2016-18, and appeared in 156 games. He batted .319 with 16 doubles, nine triples and three home runs, driving in 66. He also stole 22 bases during his collegiate career.
The Los Gatos, Calif., native helped the Beavers to the College World Series in 2017 and 2018. He was drafted by the then-Cleveland Indians prior to the Beavers' 2018 visit, in the fifth round. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Fansy the Famous Bard:
For those that continue to say that the Manager\org have little impact on the outcome, that it's on the players and players alone. We cannot attribute other organizational successes but then troll the members of the Royals fandom for wanting heads to roll because of repeated failures. Just some perspective.
Most managers don't make a big difference.
But the truly great ones (Francona and Cash are in that group, and a few others, IMO) and the truly bad ones (Mike Matheny is truly awful) do.
I'd say 2/3 of the managers are hood ornaments and little else. But if you've got a good one or a bad one, you know it.
It's like 1b defense, IMO. For the overwhelming majority of teams, their 1b defense doesn't really move the needle. But if you have Keith Hernandez or Mo Vaughn, 1b defense is impacting your team one way or the other.
Or if you want to make a football analogy, guard play. Most of the middle tier guards are pretty fungible - but we've seen the difference that both elite guard play (Will Shields) and piss poor guard play (the traffic cones in the SB against TB) can make.
Right now the Royals are running Stefan Wisniewski out there to get his shit pushed in. It's just not tenable. They don't need Joe Thuney out there, but they at least need Andrew Wylie. [Reply]
Originally Posted by poolboy:
I really dont think there is anybody with ride or die Matheny in this thread
This small market franchise has several other fish to fry.
It’s a mirage that his haters keep seeing, even tho it’s not real. “Matheny defenders everywhere!” [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Whatever happened to that audio guy- - Luke Heimlich or something
That whole case was some bullshit. But what happened with him is that a team in the Mexican League brought him in, but his numbers in Mexico aren't so stellar that a MLB team would be willing to take the PR hit to give him a shot stateside. So hopefully he's living the good life in Mexico. It's not the worst country to end up in.
His alleged crime took place when he was a minor (16 or 15 years old) and the court ordered those records sealed, not to be released. Due to a 'clerical mistake', those records were accidentally made available to a reporter for the Oregonian, who proceeded to ruin Heimlich's life and career by publishing and moralizing about it.
But that alleged crime, where his niece was the victim, took place during a nasty divorce between Heimlich's brother and sister-in-law. Heimlich never, at any point, admitted to doing what was alleged. I think it was a coaching job by that sister-in-law to win full custody and stick it to the Heimlichs. It's very suspicious, when you look into it. He effectively had to take the plea deal to avoid prison and to keep those records from permanently ruining his life - after all, the deal he reluctantly took included those records being SEALED. He says he regrets taking the deal nonetheless.
During his time at OSU, there was never a single allegation or rumor to my knowledge that he was committing crimes of any kind, and certainly not the audio kind. Model citizen and teammate, by all reports.
I was banned in a couple baseball team subreddits (Angels, Rockies) for advocating that that team bring Heimlich in for a look. That's how sensitive bringing up his name even is. In the words of the Browns organization, his name triggers people. But the simple truth his, his numbers in Mexico don't justify a MLB shot. Last I checked, he was putting up ERA's in the mid 3's there. He was a consensus mid to high 1st round pick before that Oregonian reporter decided to destroy him after that 'mistake' got made and his records were made public.
If he really is innocent as he has always maintained, what a shit deal in life he got, eh? [Reply]