a 1 beating a 16 imo. 15 and 2 is too generous but we've seen 1's beat 16's before.

I'd say Australia is the worst team to be in the round of 16 as of yet for this tournament.
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I don't know about surprising, but their elimination is convoluted and a tad unfair.

They are even in points with Spain, but Costa Rica surrendered a shit ton of goals in the opening game, meaning that Spain didn't have to win their final game with their massive goal differential advantage. They lost to the same team [Japan] by the same score. So basically Japan overachieved massively and Germany's fate ended up in Costa Rica's hands.
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I don't think any grand strategy is it, just that training(and money) are getting better for all countries. The gap in talent isn't nearly as big as it was in say 1990 between the good and the bad teams. You are seeing this in all big sports like basketball. The US could just send whoever and win the Olympic gold by 45 points a game. Now you can't do that. Upsets happen far more in college football and basketball. As training becomes more even and more money flows in, the talent from the worst teams will get better. That's what's happening in soccer both in the men's game and the women's game, where the US women can't just win every game 10-0 anymore by showing up.
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No way, Germany's fate ended up in Spain's hands 100%.

Spain beating Costa Rica 7-0, and then Spain losing to Japan 2-1 sealed Germanys fate.

If Spain wins that game, Germany advances. Looking at GD, at first glance it even looks like if Spain ties it 2-2 there, Japan goes from +1 GD back to 0, and Germany advances with their +1 GD...
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ZERO talent? Costa Rica's Goal Keeper is the starting goal keeper for Paris Saint Germaine, you know, the team MBappe and Messi play for lol.
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i don't think it's unfair germany went out. even if this were the euros, where head-to-head is first tiebreaker, they still would go out because they only drew with spain.
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Goal differential is such a bad way to do things....buuuuuut....I can't think of a better one so I'll just stay over here in the corner and shut up.

Just seems odd that beating the brakes off a team, in a 3-game sample size, should carry that much weight.

I almost think I'd rather just see the higher seed advance - if you played well enough getting into the Cup that you got the higher seed in it, that should mean more than beating some rummy of a squad worse than the other guys did.
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in some tournaments, head-to-head is the first tiebreaker. i tend to prefer that for short run tournements. i think goal differential makes more sense for league play, which is usually 38 games.
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There are other tie-breakers but GD is usually what's used in most scenarios. I think GD is fair in some sense because if you noticed, if Costa Rica won that game, they advanced along with Japan.... So even though Costa Rica lost 7-0 to Spain, they would have still advanced over a team that smashed them.

Germany themselves lost to Japan and is what ultimately lost them this cup, and then prayed Spain could do what they couldn't.
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If you’re mad that you think another team was sandbagging to knock you out, don’t leave yourself in a position where you’re at their mercy. You can hardly complain about Japan advancing when you lost to them.
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Yeah I dont understand not using Head to Head so in that respect I have no sympathy for the Germans. Also in this type of tournament you could be playing a team in the 3rd game who is already eliminated
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I love the World Cup and soccer, man. Fucking love it!!
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Yeah, I don't have a problem with goal differential over a large sample size at all. Because I do think there's a lot of merit to it over large enough sample sizes.

Good teams beat teams badly; less good teams still win, but not by as much. It's pretty much universal across all sports.

But in a 3 game sample size, it just doesn't mean a hell of a lot. It means Costa Rica played like shit in the opening round of the World Cup - it happens.

I would also prefer H2H as the 1st tiebreaker - that makes all the sense in the world. But as the 2nd tie-breaker I think I'd just have them advance on seeding and get rid of all the rest of this shit like Fair Play rules and what not.

But hey, it clearly creates drama.
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:-)
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I gotta admit, they video-reviewed it and decided that wasn't out. Happy for Japan, but that may not sit well for some people.
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