Originally Posted by Chief_N_Bama:
Please provide those stats. But since 2003 Miami has the second best recordin the AFCE at 44.5%, which would be good for 4th in every other division except the NFCE.
Sure, you still win the game, but having bye and HFA increases the odds that you do.
Remove the games vs the Patriots. Out of division winning % goes up.
This was a big topic on the home board. We did the math and the OOD record wasn't as bad as we thought. [Reply]
This was my overall point. HFA and attaining it by playing in the AFCE is irrelevent for two reasons.
-Beat OOD opponents
-Beat playoff teams during the regular season and playoffs
-Beat team in the playoffs.
cut n paste
Much has been made during the Patriots' tremendous run since BB took over the reigns over how weak the AFC East has been over that time. It is thought by many detractors of the Patriots that they've run up big records against these weak opponents, and that has propelled them into the playoffs year after year. But is it true? Is it really the case that the AFC East has been the NFL's weakest division?
I will only use the years since the NFL went to the 8-division format, which means looking at 2002-2013. Of course this leaves out one of the Pats' Super Bowl seasons, but oh well. It's just easier this way.
First, I looked at each division's overall win total over this 12-year period: (EDIT: The first number here (401, 397, 395, etc) are the raw win totals. I forgot to mention that)
Obviously, the AFC East's impressive top ranking is colored by the Patriots' success. So here's the division winning percentages with NE out of the mixture (i.e., the AFCE just has NYJ, Mia, and Buf).
But these numbers are colored by New England hammering AFCE opponents. So let's just go with each division's out-of-division games, with New England taken out of the mix.
So yes, the AFC East has been one of the weaker divisions in the NFL during this time frame, which has undoubtedly benefitted the Patriots. However, consider these numbers, focusing only on the Patriots.
- Overall win % (2002-2013): .766 (averaging 12.3 wins a season)
- Overall non-division win %: .750 (that would average 12.0 wins a season)
So being in the AFC East has helped the Patriots to the tune of 0.3 wins per season, hardly enough to register a blip on the radar. If the Patriots had played all their games from 2002-2013 against non-division opponents, they would *still* be head-and-shoulders the best team in the NFL over that time frame. In other words, while it is true that New England has played in a lesser division all these years, it hasn't mattered, because the Patriots have been obliterating the entire NFL despite playing first-place schedules year after year after year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RobertWeathers:
I don't think I said they lollygagged vs the Steelers.
They most certainly mailed it in vs MIA.
The 2018 Pats have had a tough time getting up for games on the road. That what happens to teams that have been kicking ass for 18 years.
Don't call me a tool. I've been respectful on this board. I expect the same courtesy.
So, the reason the Pats lose to bad teams on the road is because they aren't motivated to them? Why do they win against bad teams at home then? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chief_N_Bama:
So, the reason the Pats lose to bad teams on the road is because they aren't motivated to them? Why do they win against bad teams at home then?
In some of their losses they did not match the other team's intensity. In other instances - and we've seen this before the HC was a coordinator who unfortunately has great insight into our line calls, check downs, cadences, personnel, tendencies. Other games we didn't have the personnel and weren't good enough (injuries, etc), matchups, etc.
I know where you want to take this discussion. You are trying to understand why the Pats sucked on the road. During the regular season the sucked on the road but it wasn't one single reason. It was due to many factors. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RobertWeathers:
This was my overall point.
cut n paste
Much has been made during the Patriots' tremendous run since BB took over the reigns over how weak the AFC East has been over that time. It is thought by many detractors of the Patriots that they've run up big records against these weak opponents, and that has propelled them into the playoffs year after year. But is it true? Is it really the case that the AFC East has been the NFL's weakest division?
I will only use the years since the NFL went to the 8-division format, which means looking at 2002-2013. Of course this leaves out one of the Pats' Super Bowl seasons, but oh well. It's just easier this way.
First, I looked at each division's overall win total over this 12-year period: (EDIT: The first number here (401, 397, 395, etc) are the raw win totals. I forgot to mention that)
Obviously, the AFC East's impressive top ranking is colored by the Patriots' success. So here's the division winning percentages with NE out of the mixture (i.e., the AFCE just has NYJ, Mia, and Buf).
But these numbers are colored by New England hammering AFCE opponents. So let's just go with each division's out-of-division games, with New England taken out of the mix.
So yes, the AFC East has been one of the weaker divisions in the NFL during this time frame, which has undoubtedly benefitted the Patriots. However, consider these numbers, focusing only on the Patriots.
- Overall win % (2002-2013): .766 (averaging 12.3 wins a season)
- Overall non-division win %: .750 (that would average 12.0 wins a season)
So being in the AFC East has helped the Patriots to the tune of 0.3 wins per season, hardly enough to register a blip on the radar. If the Patriots had played all their games from 2002-2013 against non-division opponents, they would *still* be head-and-shoulders the best team in the NFL over that time frame. In other words, while it is true that New England has played in a lesser division all these years, it hasn't mattered, because the Patriots have been obliterating the entire NFL despite playing first-place schedules year after year after year.
It's not as simple as 12.3 MINUS 12 because the easy divisional record definitely positively affects the out of division record because it allows NE to strategically rest players and more time to game plan bigger games. You already admitted that NE doesn't get up to play these games cause they know they are going to win. So, don't back track now. Also, take KC this year. Had they lost 1 game which would have given them the SAME record as NE at 11-5, but instead of being the #2 seed, they would have dropped to the 5 seed because LAC were also 11-5. And because they were in the AFCW, the Chargers had to travel despite being tied for the best record in the AFC. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RobertWeathers:
In some of their losses they did not match the other team's intensity. In other instances - and we've seen this before the HC was a coordinator who unfortunately has great insight into our line calls, check downs, cadences, personnel, tendencies. Other games we didn't have the personnel and weren't good enough (injuries, etc), matchups, etc.
I know where you want to take this discussion. You are trying to understand why the Pats sucked on the road. During the regular season the sucked on the road but it wasn't one single reason. It was due to many factors.
Actually I was trying to make a point about the value of HFA...
According to y'all NE doesn't "get up" to play weaker opponents cause they always beat them, which leads to poor performances and losses on the road. But NE plays these same mediocre teams at home and hardly ever lose, despite their lack of motivation.
I’m having a difficult time understanding why Patriots fans don’t get that having at least one other good team in their division would have made it less likely they win it every year. That has nothing to do with OOC record. [Reply]