Not arguing any of your points, I get it. Just saying, it's not hard to suddenly find yourself (speaking of Andy/Veach here) in a similar situation to what GB found themselves in, regardless of what was intended to begin with.

And yeah, it is crazy to find ourselves with the no. 1 offense after stripping the WR room and trading Hill.

But after sleeping on it, and remembering something Veach said a couple seasons ago, I'm not as concerned as i was yesterday. He said he was always looking for another weapon for Andy and Pat. And we've seen him make some moves that surprised most of us, so my feeling is that if he can get a DHop or similar player without wrecking the long-term plan for the team, he'll do it. He's not a 'status quo' kind of guy, and I'm good with that.

But for what it's worth, DHop as a Chief would be unstoppable. Just saying.
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JJSS will get a nice contract but it won't be in the Tyreek/Adams area. There is no way the Chiefs are going back to the Robinsons/Pringles of the NFL next year. Watson hasn't been all we thought he would and Skyy is still struggling. MVS has been very pedestrian - although he has had some critical catches late in games, he disappears for most of the game. The only consistent pass catchers we have are JJSS and Kelce and to a lesser extent (when he is on the field) Toney
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898 yards on 504 routes run -- 1.78 yards per route run.

Moore -- 250 yards on 167 routes run -- 1.5 yards per RR. Now, is JJSS better? Obviously. But would I say there's 'no way' that JJSS can increase his efficiency by .28 yards per rr? Yeah, I think that's pretty doable. For reference, that's roughly 300 yards over his 167 routes this year vs. 250. I see no reason to say that's completely out of reach.

JuJu is about smack in the middle of Darius Slayton and Nico Collins in terms of efficiency this year. He's not out there clipping off 2+ yards per route or anything. He's someone that's found a nice niche but has been a product of the offense more than he's truly been special.

Would Moore be a 1 for 1 replacement next year? No, i don't think so. You'd be looking at changing up the offense again a bit in all probability. Toney would have more downfield responsibility and a more varied route tree than Hardman has to absorb some of that loss while Moore would take those underneath routes that JJSS is presently running. MVS would return with a similar role, IMO. And ideally another season with PM would yield greater chemistry (as MVS has been missed a LOT this year).

I'm not saying it's an ideal scenario, but I prefer it to spending $18-$20 million/yr on a guy who was struggling to get multi-year offers the last couple of seasons. In an environment where teams were showering guys like Christian Kirk with long-term guaranteed dollars.
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You are assuming routes run means it's a passing play or supposed to get the ball. Thats why Receptions/Targets makes more sense. But you know that, you are just being argumentative (Damn Lawyers) :-). I would prefer JJSS back on a MVS style contract - which I think is all he is going to get. If he wants something in the Hill/Adams stratosphere then yeah let him walk but I don't think that is the case.
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FWIW MVS would only be $2M in dead cap this year and next as a post June 1st cut
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So $4 million in dead money over the next 2 years or you keep him at a base salary of $8.5 million?

I think I just keep him. Probably cut him after next season and end up absorbing that $2 million in dead money THEN rather than pay him $12 million in 2024, but for 2023, I think I'd bring him back.

I mean we're 2 or 3 missed connections from the guy having 800+ yards and 5 scores. And Mahomes has acknowledged those misses were on him. MVS has been what we could've hoped from him, IMO. And he's provided some nice physical blocking to boot.

I don't think you find a better veteran than him for $9 million next off-season. At least not one that fits his role in the offense as well.
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Routes Run represents a proxy (and when used across players, a fair representation for both guys as either JJSS or Player B are likely to see a roughly similar ratio in that regard).

If anything, it would oversample JJSS who's routinely higher on the progression list than someone like Moore. If Moore is a 4th option and only generating 1/3 of a yard less per route than JJSS as the 2nd option, that's a bit of an indictment on JuJu.

Ultimately the routes run stat works because it provides a really large N. Whereas targets don't. Moreover, targets also don't adjust for the fact that some guys just don't get much separation when they run a route and thus get fewer targets directly as a result of their shortcomings.

Using yards/route run is actually a pretty good indicator of overall efficiency for a WR. And the top 25 being populated by dudes you tend to think of as damn good WRs would support that.
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I'd start with the OTs and DEs before I'd blow a wad on a WR but I'd go in now to build a team that has a 5 year window that doesn't just count on Mahomes Magic.

[QUOTEWe won a SB 3 years ago.

We don't need to win shit now.][/QUOTE]

Get out of here with that noise. Players are all just one hit away and that includes Mahomes. We need to win all we can as soon as we can. Do you think Mahomes is okay with "we won one three years ago?" Do you think Brady was ever okay with that?

Fix the protection, fix the pass rush and if possible, improve the weapons. All this we can't is crap. Don't tell me how we can't tell me how we can! That's Veache's job.
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I don't disagree - I think he is on the cusp of being a vertical threat if he and Mahomes can get their timing down. I just don't believe Skyy is up to the challenge to replace JJSS and Watson needs to go. There has to be a better #4 receiver on the roster Bryan Edwards/Smith-Marsette/Ealy/Ross?
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So your saying Skyy/Watson can't get separation and JJSS can which is why the disparity in targets - I think you just made my point sir.
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Absolutely.

Where the loss of JJSS and Hardman would hurt the most isn't even at the #1 and #3 WR slots, IMO. It's at 4, 5 and 6.

The depth would just be staggeringly awful once you have to move guys like Toney and MVS up into higher leverage roles.

That would be where my greatest concerns would come. But those are also areas where you can try to find some of those higher risk/reward plays. You can look for those 'make good' plays or value plays on WRs you think are due to break out.

You don't target guys like that to be your 1st or 2nd option. Nor do you bring them in when you're stacked tight at 1-4 because you can't give them the rope they need to truly bust out.

But man, if you could bring a guy like that in as a possible #4 who turns himself into your #2 for a pittance, that's found money. That's the way dominant teams happen.

You pay retail for everything and the realities of a cap league are that you're just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Your ceiling is limited. You've gotta find surplus value and WR is a place we can do it, IMO.
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I totally get where you are going with the salary cap and I don't necessarily disagree. But we have a lot of wasted cap space in Frank Clark and he isn't coming back cutting him leaves 9M in dead cap but saves 20M. Thats some $$ you can spread around to a WR.
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The exact opposite, my friend.

The gap between their respective yards per route run and their yards per target is greater precisely BECAUSE JuJu struggles to get separation. JJSS is much higher in the progression than Moore yet he gets .189 targets per route than Moore. Meanwhile Moore gets .192 targets per route despite being further down the progression due to his relative inexperience. Why should a 4th option be getting more targets per route run than the 2nd?

My point is that JJSS scores relatively 'higher' in yards per target than he does in yards per route run because his routes don't yield targets as often as they should for the top WR on a team. And it's because JJSS simply doesn't get much separation.

The top WR for the top scoring offense in football, a team with a 5,000 yard passer, has 95 targets on the season. And less than 900 yards receiving. That's just not a terribly efficient player and not someone that any team 'can't afford to lose'.

That's pretty damn fungible.
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This.
I'm out on giving JJS big money.
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We've gotta add 20 new faces to this roster BEFORE you cut Frank Clark.

Brotha, that cap space is gonna disappear much faster than you realize. That 33 guys we have signed doesn't include a LT or a RT. It doesn't include DT2 or DT3. Or DE2.

We're gonna have to spread a lot around and it's gonna get thin. That's why it's really important to make sure it's allocated wisely. I don't think paying JJSS like a #1 WR does that.
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