Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Is this a fair analysis?
The trajectory of the U.S. #COVID19 epidemic just couldn't be worse, especially compared to other nations. We've outpaced China and we're racing to hell at a clip well beyond Italy or Spain. pic.twitter.com/cZhK9afPFr
Originally Posted by oaklandhater:
\ We really need a national shutdown like yesterday all the states having their own rules isn't helping any one in the long term.
You keep saying we "need" this. Over and over. I am curious as to what exactly you mean by it, because it reminds me of all the people running around screaming for "common sense gun control" after every shooting.
So Dr Oaklandhater M.D., expert in infectious diseases, you are now in control of the country.
Please outline, in very specific terms, the conditions of the national lockdown you are about to impose on us all. While doing so, keep in mind all the things you like to do everyday, and how those things may be affected by these conditions.
And also, you'll need to tell us how you're going to address the economic impact that will result from these conditions. The decisions you'll be making are not made in a vacuum, they will all have real life consequences.
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Analyzing approximately 19,000 cases of REPORTED infection (again, totals rates with asymptomatic infection will be higher) in Spain they found:
0 to 10 — 129 cases (.68%), 34 hospitalized (26.36%), 1 in ICU (.78%), 0 death (0%)
11 to 19 — 221 cases (1.17%), 15 hospitalized (6.79%), 0 in ICU (0%), 1 death (.55%)
20 to 29 — 1,285 (6.78%), 183 hospitalized (14.24%), 8 in ICU (.62%), 4 death (.31%)
30 to 49 — 5,127 (27.04%), 1,028 hospitalized (20.05%), 55 in ICU (1.07%), 12 death (.23%)
50 to 69 — 6,045 (31.89%), 2,166 hospitalized (35.83%), 221 in ICU (3.66%), 83 death (1.37%)
70+ — 6,152 (32.45%), 3,388 hospitalized (55.07%), 199 in ICU (3.24%), 705 death (11.46%)
Totals: 35.94% hospitalized, 2.55% in ICU, 4.25% death
Where are those numbers from? If those are early figures they will be skewed by only the worst of the worst cases being the ones tested.
Looking at Spain's numbers right now you have ~46k active cases and ~3k of those are serious/critical. That gives you a MAX of 6.5% as serious... ignoring the fact that the true number for active cases is almost certainly 5 to 10 times higher. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jdubya:
Soooo......we are taking Chinas data at its word? Asking for a friend....
When their cases started dropping a few weeks ago, I challenged.the accuracy of the reported numbers in front of some Chinese colleagues. They all confirmed the numbers were real based on what people they knew in China were telling them. They cited the extreme measures (chasing people with drones, throwing them in metal boxes, welding their doors shut) as driving the infection rates down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis:
I think an interesting comparison is a look at the rate of infection when comparing Kansas and Missouri. Kansas implemented social distancing (and other measures) much earlier than Mizzou. Kansas actually had cases before Missouri (and the first death between the two states), but the trajectory of the two states are wildly different. Kansas, as of today, is at 168 cases, and Missouri is currently at 502 cases. Sixty two percent of the cases in Kansas are in the KC metro area (Johnson County, Wyandotte, and Leavenworth Counties).
That could easily be explained by a lack of testing everyone in Kansas except KC Metro. I can't stress enough how meaningless these numbers truly are. [Reply]
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
That could easily be explained by a lack of testing everyone in Kansas except KC Metro. I can't stress enough how meaningless these numbers truly are.
Exactly. These numbers for Kansas might as well be made up. Try getting tested without being bad enough to be hospitalized. Who knows what the actual number of infected is. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kcxiv:
dr Fauci said 15 percent of people who get Covid have to be hospitalize, thats insane.
I highly doubt he said that, but if he did he is flat out wrong. Hell, most experts agree that only 15-20% of all people infected even notice much more than mild cold symptoms. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kcxiv:
dr Fauci said 15 percent of people who get Covid have to be hospitalize, thats insane.
Well, it's insane that he said that, yes. I would like to know how he surmised that when I am under the understanding that we have no freaking idea whatsoever how many people are infected. [Reply]
Originally Posted by kcxiv:
dr Fauci said 15 percent of people who get Covid have to be hospitalize, thats insane.
Yeah that didn’t make sense to me. I think he meant 15% of cases where symptoms are present. 60-80% have no symptoms at all. That would leave room for only 5% of cases that don’t require hospitalization. [Reply]
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
I highly doubt he said that, but if he did he is flat out wrong. Hell, most experts agree that only 15-20% of all people infected even notice much more than mild cold symptoms.
He may have said that percentage of confirmed cases have required hospitalization and kcxiv misinterpreted it. And also highlights the issue with secondhand information, which there is a shit ton of out there these days. [Reply]
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Where are those numbers from? If those are early figures they will be skewed by only the worst of the worst cases being the ones tested.
Looking at Spain's numbers right now you have ~46k active cases and ~3k of those are serious/critical. That gives you a MAX of 6.5% as serious... ignoring the fact that the true number for active cases is almost certainly 5 to 10 times higher.
Originally Posted by Bugeater:
Well, it's insane that he said that, yes. I would like to know how he surmised that when I am under the understanding that we have no freaking idea whatsoever how many people are infected.
Exactly. The only people tested are first responders with symptoms and the general public showing extreme symptoms. How many never call 911 or anybody when only feeling basic symptoms of a common cold or apparently many of us will not even think we have anything?...... [Reply]