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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
RINGLEADER 08:30 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
So when do we see the social distancing impact come into play?
Week or two — though there is still way too much travel within communities and within the nation.
[Reply]
loochy 08:31 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
So when do we see the social distancing impact come into play?
I'd say 4 weeks min to start seeing it

2 weeks for initial incubation and 2 weeks for sickness/recovery to start clearing out of the system
[Reply]
FloridaMan88 08:31 PM 03-26-2020
Sounds better than the unsustainable mass lockdowns/social distancing...

Link: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...241521246.html

Originally Posted by :
Miami-Dade plans to use targeted blood tests across the county to track the spread of coronavirus in an effort to get a broader picture of how to respond to the outbreak.

Mayor Carlos Gimenez said this week the county has access to new pinprick tests that detect the antibodies in blood that indicate someone has the disease or has recovered from it. Results can be ready in 15 minutes, and subjects will be chosen at random each week based on demographic data.

The Miami-Dade project also could put Florida’s most populated county on the leading edge of a global effort to track how many people are immune to COVID-19, the disease caused by coronavirus. For people who catch the virus and show little or no symptoms, their silent bout with COVID-19 could leave them protected from a second exposure.

Widespread resilience to the disease, known as “herd immunity,” would provide a turning point in the spread. Identifying people who have already contracted COVID-19 without knowing it could help narrow the scope of defensive, social-distancing measures.

“Right now, the only weapon we have is to hide. Stay away from people. Hide from the virus,” said Dr. Michael Lauzardo, a professor at University of Florida’s medical school who is assisting with a planned long-term study of blood samples at the school’s home base in Gainesville and in the Villages retirement community. “We have to start thinking about herd immunity. ... You can’t shut down forever.”

[Reply]
SuperBowl4 08:35 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by ChiefZilla:
stock market had a nice day
That's all that really matters
[Reply]
BIG_DADDY 08:37 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Have you seen the most recent Oxford model? They changed the assumption regarding the rate of severity and showed a model that fit the reality in the UK but was based on it having almost peaked at this point.

That is something I am having a problem reconciling when experts make projections based on us being in the very early phases of this. That assumption seems off to me. We know it spreads ridiculously fast. We know that it was in the wild in the US for AT LEAST 2 months (more likely 3) with little to no mitigation. Not just wishful thinking here, but the revised Oxford model simply makes more sense to me.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnh...0(13).pdf?dl=0

Another issue is with testing. Since we aren't testing for antibodies, we have no clue what the negatives mean. Are those people susceptible to the virus or people who are now immune?
Yes. Great to see you post.
[Reply]
Chief Roundup 08:37 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by LiveSteam:
Omaha has 9 cases..
That is from the entire state being flat 6ft just isn't enough distance between family members.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 08:38 PM 03-26-2020
How ominous...

UPS® Service Guarantees Suspended

Originally Posted by :
UPS® is committed to operating globally, except where constrained by government restrictions. The Novel Coronavirus pandemic has created unprecedented complexities, which have required us to constantly reassess our operations. Our highest priority is to help ensure the health and safety of our employees, customers, and suppliers.

Suspension of Small Package Service Guarantee

Effective March 26, 2020 and until further notice, we have suspended the UPS Service Guarantee for all shipments to any destination, at all service levels. As the effects of the Coronavirus impact our infrastructure, we will continue to seek guidance from local and national government entities regarding applicable regulations. Please continue to visit ups.com's Coronavirus web page for the most up-to-date information regarding the impact of Coronavirus on UPS Small Package services. The UPS Service Guarantee is subject to change. For further details, see the UPS Tariff/Terms and Conditions of Service.

[Reply]
BIG_DADDY 08:40 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Week or two — though there is still way too much travel within communities and within the nation.
Have you ever considered the easier rout of just taking yourself out to save you the misery of the inevitable?
[Reply]
Titty Meat 08:40 PM 03-26-2020
Delete if not allowed...

The Surgeon General said the numbers would be high this week. I wish elected officials would point out the CFR as the guiding thing here and tell people give it a few weeks the curve will begin to improve. This would install confidence instead of panic in the country and we will all be closer to getting back to normal life though it could be a few more months.
[Reply]
AustinChief 08:44 PM 03-26-2020
Another figure to look at (if the sites I am looking at are at all accurate).... we are currently at ~80k active known cases with ~2k serious/critical. That gives us 2.5% as the absolute max for serious/critical cases. It is FAR more likely that we are looking at ~2k serious/critical cases and ~500k-800k active cases since so many go untested/unreported/undetected. In which case the number drops to .4-.25% of all cases end up serious or critical. (I think these numbers are actually WAY WAY too high because I think we have far more infected or infected and recovered than we are imagining)

If the number is .4% and we infected almost everyone, we would have something in the range of 1 million people hospitalized in the US for Covid-19. And there are experts who think we will see 1/4 of those people die? Or are these experts claiming that the 80k detected cases is a somewhat accurate figure reflective of how many total US infections there have been since January or December? That would be absolutely ridiculous and I can't imagine anyone being clueless enough to believe that.
[Reply]
SuperBowl4 08:48 PM 03-26-2020
Ever notice that racecar is spelled the same backwards?
[Reply]
eDave 08:52 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by SuperBowl4:
Ever notice that racecar is spelled the same backwards?
boob
[Reply]
BigRedChief 08:57 PM 03-26-2020
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Delete if not allowed...

The Surgeon General said the numbers would be high this week. I wish elected officials would point out the CFR as the guiding thing here and tell people give it a few weeks the curve will begin to improve. This would install confidence instead of panic in the country and we will all be closer to getting back to normal life though it could be a few more months.
the main lesson historians learned from the 1918 Spanish flu was to tell the truth. Every government downplayed or hid their real numbers from the public.

Ironically, the flu didn’t originate in Spain. Spain was the only country that told the truth at the beginning. Hence it was named after them.
[Reply]
Hammock Parties 08:57 PM 03-26-2020
Death rate is going down, at least for today



Source:

Total reported US coronavirus deaths via @CNN:

3/1: 2
3/2: 6
3/3: 9
3/4: 11
3/5: 12
3/6: 17
3/7: 19
3/8: 21
3/9: 26
3/10: 31
3/11: 38
3/12: 41
3/13: 49
3/14: 58
3/15: 65
3/16: 87
3/17: 111
3/18: 149
3/19: 195
3/20: 263
3/21: 323
3/22: 413
3/23: 541
3/24: 704
3/25: 938
Now: 1,195

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 27, 2020

[Reply]
BigRedChief 08:59 PM 03-26-2020

Dr. Fauci on Trump's Easter coronavirus timeline: "He was making an aspirational projection to give people some hope. But he's listening to us when we say we've really got to reevaluate it in real-time and any decision we make has to be based on the data."

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 27, 2020

[Reply]
BigRedChief 03-26-2020, 09:00 PM
This message has been deleted by BigRedChief. Reason: Dupe
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